Thursday, April 13, 2006
Is there an owner in our immediate future?
It seems so, at least according to Boswell. Fred Malek's group apparently is the front runner, with Stan Kasten likely to join the group and run the team. That's a pretty good outcome--Kasten, after all, played no small role in building the Braves into one of baseball's best franchises. Now, let's hope the new owner sets about to rebuilding this team and moving it in the right direction, pronto.
The story that wasn't a story
The buzz before last night's game was over what the Nationals would do to Pedro Martinez. Having plunked his share of Nationals hitters, would the Nationals retaliate against Martinez, with the bats or otherwise? As it turns out, the buzz should have been what Martinez was going to do to the Nationals.
Martinez shut down the Nats in a masterful performance. Pedro's line reflected his dominance: 7 innings, 3 hits, 3 strikeouts, one walk, one earned run.
We shouldn't really be surprised by the lack of fireworks. First, Major League Baseball has come down hard on the two teams, and we doubt that any player wants to risk a long suspension on doing something stupid. Second, the Nats are overmatched against pitchers like Pedro. There's no shame in that, because Pedro makes a lot of hitters look foolish, but a team that makes Brian Bannister look unhittable doesn't stand much of a chance against Martinez.
There will be a lot of games like this as the season progresses. If there is a silver lining, it's that Tony Armas looked pretty good: 6 innings, 8 hits, 4 strikeouts, one walk, two earned runs. He wasn't dominant, but he was productive, which is a lot more than we expected. Let's hope that we see many more such starts from Mr. Armas.
Martinez shut down the Nats in a masterful performance. Pedro's line reflected his dominance: 7 innings, 3 hits, 3 strikeouts, one walk, one earned run.
We shouldn't really be surprised by the lack of fireworks. First, Major League Baseball has come down hard on the two teams, and we doubt that any player wants to risk a long suspension on doing something stupid. Second, the Nats are overmatched against pitchers like Pedro. There's no shame in that, because Pedro makes a lot of hitters look foolish, but a team that makes Brian Bannister look unhittable doesn't stand much of a chance against Martinez.
There will be a lot of games like this as the season progresses. If there is a silver lining, it's that Tony Armas looked pretty good: 6 innings, 8 hits, 4 strikeouts, one walk, two earned runs. He wasn't dominant, but he was productive, which is a lot more than we expected. Let's hope that we see many more such starts from Mr. Armas.
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Brian loves us!
This is from the Elias Sports Bureau:
Have the Mets found a keeper in Brian Bannister, who earned his first major-league win in a 7-1 victory over the Nationals? Could be. Bannister has held the opposition scoreless through five innings in each of his first two major-league starts. But curb your enthusiasm -- at least for the moment. The last five pitchers to do that were Robinson Tejeda, Kyle Davies, Jimmy Gobble, Wil Ledezma, and Mike Maroth.
Let's also not forget that Bannister's only two games have been against the Nationals, and that his ratios aren't very good: K/BB=1.25; K/9=3.46. So, let's hold off on the euphoric rhetoric for a bit.
Have the Mets found a keeper in Brian Bannister, who earned his first major-league win in a 7-1 victory over the Nationals? Could be. Bannister has held the opposition scoreless through five innings in each of his first two major-league starts. But curb your enthusiasm -- at least for the moment. The last five pitchers to do that were Robinson Tejeda, Kyle Davies, Jimmy Gobble, Wil Ledezma, and Mike Maroth.
Let's also not forget that Bannister's only two games have been against the Nationals, and that his ratios aren't very good: K/BB=1.25; K/9=3.46. So, let's hold off on the euphoric rhetoric for a bit.
Was I that listless?
Barry Svrluga writes that the fans at yesterday's game were "listless." I guess they (we) were, but how exactly are the fans supposed to get excited when the team is getting pounded by the opponent? The Nats were down 2-0 after four innings and had only one hit to show for their efforts. In fact, Brian Bannister had faced only one more hitter than the minimum through four and only two more than the minimum through five. By that time the score was 4-0, and, with the Nats making Brian Bannister look like Walter Johnson, the odds were heavily stacked against the team the fans wanted to cheer for.
The fans weren't so quiet at the beginning of the game. They rained loud cheers on the home team during the introductions and gave a huge ovation to Frank Robinson. They then unleashed their furor on Dick Cheney as he walked off the field. In other words, the fans were quite vocal until the play on the field depressed them to the point of silence.
It is just not credible to suggest, as Svrluga does, that the players were listless in response to the fans' failure to be vocal. The Nationals are not a good team. In the home opener the starting pitcher was someone who should not be starting for any major league team and arguably shouldn't even be in The Show. And the starting second baseman, shortstop, and centerfielder wouldn't be starting for any other major league team. Let's stop acting like the sitation is anything other than what it is: the Nationals are a poor team this year, and they have no choice but to use this year as a rebuilding exercise.
It is just wrong to blame the fans for not responding to this team like it's a World Series contender. The team has the obligation to put onto the field a productive unit that lures fans into the seats, and it (and its putative owner--Major League Baseball) has failed miserably to do that. And even the rebuilding can't get started until Major League Baseball finally gets around to choosing an owner.
The fans have been remarkably supportive throughout this difficult period, and it's the team's responsibility to give them something to cheer for. Until they do, it is entirely appropriate for the fans to show their displeasure or just remain silent if they choose to do so.
The fans weren't so quiet at the beginning of the game. They rained loud cheers on the home team during the introductions and gave a huge ovation to Frank Robinson. They then unleashed their furor on Dick Cheney as he walked off the field. In other words, the fans were quite vocal until the play on the field depressed them to the point of silence.
It is just not credible to suggest, as Svrluga does, that the players were listless in response to the fans' failure to be vocal. The Nationals are not a good team. In the home opener the starting pitcher was someone who should not be starting for any major league team and arguably shouldn't even be in The Show. And the starting second baseman, shortstop, and centerfielder wouldn't be starting for any other major league team. Let's stop acting like the sitation is anything other than what it is: the Nationals are a poor team this year, and they have no choice but to use this year as a rebuilding exercise.
It is just wrong to blame the fans for not responding to this team like it's a World Series contender. The team has the obligation to put onto the field a productive unit that lures fans into the seats, and it (and its putative owner--Major League Baseball) has failed miserably to do that. And even the rebuilding can't get started until Major League Baseball finally gets around to choosing an owner.
The fans have been remarkably supportive throughout this difficult period, and it's the team's responsibility to give them something to cheer for. Until they do, it is entirely appropriate for the fans to show their displeasure or just remain silent if they choose to do so.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
RFK lays an egg
It took us 45 minutes to exit the parking lot after the game, and there were ten minute stretches where we weren't moving at all and finally turned off the car. The problem seemed to be that there were too few exits and too many cars being funneled from too many directions into those few exits. So, we had to wait unreasonably long times for the cars nearer the exits to make their way into the line. I've never seen a parking lot more mismanaged than RFK today, including numerous games last year that were sold out. Let's hope the parking lot managers learn their lesson and clean up this problem because there will be a lot of people who just stay away from the park rather than brave those parking lot traffic jams.
Actual conversation
After Soriano homered in the bottom of the 7th, the crowd noise woke up the sleeping Mets fan behind me. Apparently the alcohol had taken its toll.
Mets Fan #1: What? What? What happened?
Mets Fan #2: Soriano homered.
Mets Fan #1: SO WHAT!! GO METS, BRO! WHAT'S THE SCORE, 5-2?
Mets Fan #2: 5-1.
Mets Fan #1: SEE WHAT I TOLD YOU, BRO! GO METS!
His ability to go from unconsciousness to maximum decibel level was stunning..
Why is this happening to me?
I guess there are worse things than spending an afternoon sitting in front
of six drunken Mets fans. Duck hunting with Dick Cheney and dining with
Judge Judy come to mind, but there aren't many.
You've got to be kidding!
The Presidential race has returned as a between-innings media feature at RFK this season. But unlike last year, when the presidents were racing in cars, it's a foot race this year. Lincoln just won the race going away. He was losing until he threw a pylon at Washington, knocking him temporarily unconscious. Nice.
What?!
The Nationals have a massage therapist on their staff?! Perhaps not surprisingly, he got a big ovation from the fans.
Remember that Seinfeld episode?
Something is seriously wrong with RFK's sound system. It's impossible to hear anything that's being said over the PA system. The announcer might as well be speaking in Chinese. It's like that Seinfeld episode where the New York subway announcer is totally incomprehensible.
Concession Madness
Why can't the stadium concessions get the basics right? We had to search for working ketchup and mustard dispensers, and the sausage line was 10 minutes long while virtually every other stand had no customers. You'd think the stadium would have the rudimentary supply and demand calculations down after a year, but it seems not to be so.
Opening Day
Last year opening day was a night game, and, although the weather wasn't great, the atmosphere was electric. Baseball had returned to Washington after a 30 year absence, and the sell-out crowd was euphoric. The fans were so excited that they gave even the equipment manager a standing ovation.
Now, one year later, opening day is a day game and the weather is beautiful.
It's a great day for a game, even though the atmosphere will be less combustible than last year. As of an hour ago, 9,000 tickets remained to be sold. In other words, a bit of the bloom is off this rose.
But just a bit. The Nationals were a huge hit last year, and it seems safe to conclude that baseball is here to stay. Were they to have a real owner, the team could exploit this environment and become one of the league's most valuable franchises.
There is still a lot of promise here, even more than is normal for a team on it's opening day.
In praise of Chad Cordero
Our first thought after last night's game was to write a blistering post ripping Chad Cordero for blowing another save. But we thought about it and decided instead to write a post praising Cordero and the job he's done for the Nationals. Then we decided that Cordero should be traded.
Yes, Cordero blew the save last night, and, yes, Cordero blew key saves down the stretch last year, including one horrific home game against the Braves. But Cordero has been one of the best closers over the last two years. According to Baseball Prospectus, he finished 14th and 9th in Wins Expected Above Replacement Level in the last two seasons. There's no reason why Cordero can't continue to a productive closer, especially since he pitches in spacious RFK.
But, let's be realistic. The Nationals have A LOT of needs--starting pitching, shortstop, second base (assuming Soriano leaves), and the outfield. Acquiring productive talent in all of those positions is going to require three things: smart management, money, and talent to be used as trade bait. In the third category, Cordero is one of the Nationals' most valuable commodities. He is young, cheap, and occupies a coveted position. A team in the pennant stretch drive would give up something significant for a closer like that, and the Nationals need to be pursuing a lot of trades in which they acquire the young talent they need to fill their gaping holes in the lineup.
It's not like we'll never be able to find another closer. Eric Gagne, Chris Reitsma, and a whole lot of other closers didn't start out in that role. The inconvenient truth is that productive closers are pretty easy to find. Yes, dominating closers like Mariano Rivera aren't, but Cordero isn't Rivera. Let's also not forget that closers tend to have arm problems, and what's more likely to happen: Cordero reigns as an elite closer for ten years or some problem interrupts his march to the Hall of Fame? There aren't many closers who last that long, and we're willing to take the risk that Cordero will by trading him now. The Nationals need to start building for their future, and Cordero can help them take a big step in that direction.
Yes, Cordero blew the save last night, and, yes, Cordero blew key saves down the stretch last year, including one horrific home game against the Braves. But Cordero has been one of the best closers over the last two years. According to Baseball Prospectus, he finished 14th and 9th in Wins Expected Above Replacement Level in the last two seasons. There's no reason why Cordero can't continue to a productive closer, especially since he pitches in spacious RFK.
But, let's be realistic. The Nationals have A LOT of needs--starting pitching, shortstop, second base (assuming Soriano leaves), and the outfield. Acquiring productive talent in all of those positions is going to require three things: smart management, money, and talent to be used as trade bait. In the third category, Cordero is one of the Nationals' most valuable commodities. He is young, cheap, and occupies a coveted position. A team in the pennant stretch drive would give up something significant for a closer like that, and the Nationals need to be pursuing a lot of trades in which they acquire the young talent they need to fill their gaping holes in the lineup.
It's not like we'll never be able to find another closer. Eric Gagne, Chris Reitsma, and a whole lot of other closers didn't start out in that role. The inconvenient truth is that productive closers are pretty easy to find. Yes, dominating closers like Mariano Rivera aren't, but Cordero isn't Rivera. Let's also not forget that closers tend to have arm problems, and what's more likely to happen: Cordero reigns as an elite closer for ten years or some problem interrupts his march to the Hall of Fame? There aren't many closers who last that long, and we're willing to take the risk that Cordero will by trading him now. The Nationals need to start building for their future, and Cordero can help them take a big step in that direction.
Friday, April 07, 2006
How do you solve a problem like Ramon?
Ramon Ortiz is the Nationals' #3 starter. Here is what Stats Inc. says about him:
Although Ortiz has good stuff, he continues to struggle to consistently get major league hitters out. Some scouts feel it's because he throws a relatively straight fastball, which generally is in the low to mid-90s. He is only 6-feet tall, so he has trouble getting downward tilt on his pitches. His slider can be very good, but it can also be mediocre.
Here is a portion of what Baseball Prospectus said about him last year:
His actual first name is "Diogenes," which was the club at which Sherlock Holmes brother Mycroft hung out, and also the name of a Greek philosopher from the 4th century BCE known as "The Cynic." Diogenes' writings do not survive, and so hardly does Ortiz.
Interesting. Anyway, Ortiz is hardly a pitcher in whom you'd like to entrust the #3 spot in your rotation. You'd do that only if you had no other choice, both because your minor league system hadn't yet produced a major-league-ready starter and you didn't have enough money or smarts to get a good starter via trade or free agency. That, dear readers, is where the Nationals are at this point in their history. That's OK, because there isn't much the team can do about it now and instead should be focusing on rebuilding for the future, but it's going to be hard to watch Ortiz go out to the mound every fifth day this season. In fact, we hope that Ortiz won't be in the starting rotation by the All Star Break.
To bring this all back to last night, the Mets hammered Ortiz in a 10-5 win. Ortiz gave up six runs in five innings and squandered a nice offensive output by the Nationals' hitters. Ortiz did what he does best: he got crushed by left-handers. Carlos Delgado hit an Ortiz meatball so hard the camera couldn't follow it as it left the yard. (Xavier Nady was 2-3; bad for the Nationals, good for my fantasy team.)
The big drama last night was Pedro Martinez hitting Jose Guillen twice, which caused Guillen to approach Martinez with a bat. Thankfully, Jose didn't use the bat on Martinez' person, but we can't blame Guillen for being angry. Martinez pitches Guillen so tight that the ball is never far from his neck. Unlike last year, when Esteban Loiaza didn't retaliate, Felix Rodriguez did and was promptly tossed. Why the umpires didn't toss Martinez after he plunked Guillen a second time is beyond us.
In any event, the Nationals lost 10-5, and they need a better rotation. That's a theme we'll keep coming back to this season, unfortunately.
Although Ortiz has good stuff, he continues to struggle to consistently get major league hitters out. Some scouts feel it's because he throws a relatively straight fastball, which generally is in the low to mid-90s. He is only 6-feet tall, so he has trouble getting downward tilt on his pitches. His slider can be very good, but it can also be mediocre.
Here is a portion of what Baseball Prospectus said about him last year:
His actual first name is "Diogenes," which was the club at which Sherlock Holmes brother Mycroft hung out, and also the name of a Greek philosopher from the 4th century BCE known as "The Cynic." Diogenes' writings do not survive, and so hardly does Ortiz.
Interesting. Anyway, Ortiz is hardly a pitcher in whom you'd like to entrust the #3 spot in your rotation. You'd do that only if you had no other choice, both because your minor league system hadn't yet produced a major-league-ready starter and you didn't have enough money or smarts to get a good starter via trade or free agency. That, dear readers, is where the Nationals are at this point in their history. That's OK, because there isn't much the team can do about it now and instead should be focusing on rebuilding for the future, but it's going to be hard to watch Ortiz go out to the mound every fifth day this season. In fact, we hope that Ortiz won't be in the starting rotation by the All Star Break.
To bring this all back to last night, the Mets hammered Ortiz in a 10-5 win. Ortiz gave up six runs in five innings and squandered a nice offensive output by the Nationals' hitters. Ortiz did what he does best: he got crushed by left-handers. Carlos Delgado hit an Ortiz meatball so hard the camera couldn't follow it as it left the yard. (Xavier Nady was 2-3; bad for the Nationals, good for my fantasy team.)
The big drama last night was Pedro Martinez hitting Jose Guillen twice, which caused Guillen to approach Martinez with a bat. Thankfully, Jose didn't use the bat on Martinez' person, but we can't blame Guillen for being angry. Martinez pitches Guillen so tight that the ball is never far from his neck. Unlike last year, when Esteban Loiaza didn't retaliate, Felix Rodriguez did and was promptly tossed. Why the umpires didn't toss Martinez after he plunked Guillen a second time is beyond us.
In any event, the Nationals lost 10-5, and they need a better rotation. That's a theme we'll keep coming back to this season, unfortunately.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Payroll Madness
The Nationals have a $63 million payroll this year, up from $48 million last year. This might give you the impression that the Nats' days of a depressed payroll are over; after all, the team leapt three places from 23rd to 20th in the rankings and signed Alfonso Soriano in the offseason.
It might give you that impression, I guess, but it shouldn't. The Nationals continue to have a vastly depressed payroll, and a review of two statistics gives us a good (but not perfect) guide to how depressed the payroll is.
The team is in the 8th largest media market and last year was 11th in home attendance. Both figures are rough approximations of what should be the ranking of the team's payroll. If the Nationals had the 8th largest payroll, they would be tied with Houston at $92 million. If the team had the 11th largest payroll, it would be tied with St. Louis at $88 million. There is no obvious reason why the Nationals should have a payroll lower than either Houston or St. Louis; to the contrary, every indication is that the Nationals have the potential to be one of the league's most profitable teams, IF, that is, the team gets an owner and a reasonable television contract.
In other words, it's plausible that the Nationals will have at least $25 million to spend once they get an owner, and that's assuming that the team continues to carry Cristian Guzman and Jose Vidro and their overpriced contracts. If the Nationals can bring some fiscal sanity to the GM's office, they could have over $30 million to spend in the offseason. So, bring on an owner and bring on some real spending!
It might give you that impression, I guess, but it shouldn't. The Nationals continue to have a vastly depressed payroll, and a review of two statistics gives us a good (but not perfect) guide to how depressed the payroll is.
The team is in the 8th largest media market and last year was 11th in home attendance. Both figures are rough approximations of what should be the ranking of the team's payroll. If the Nationals had the 8th largest payroll, they would be tied with Houston at $92 million. If the team had the 11th largest payroll, it would be tied with St. Louis at $88 million. There is no obvious reason why the Nationals should have a payroll lower than either Houston or St. Louis; to the contrary, every indication is that the Nationals have the potential to be one of the league's most profitable teams, IF, that is, the team gets an owner and a reasonable television contract.
In other words, it's plausible that the Nationals will have at least $25 million to spend once they get an owner, and that's assuming that the team continues to carry Cristian Guzman and Jose Vidro and their overpriced contracts. If the Nationals can bring some fiscal sanity to the GM's office, they could have over $30 million to spend in the offseason. So, bring on an owner and bring on some real spending!
Yeah, about that no-hitter...
From the Elias Sports Bureau:
Washington erased a 4-0 deficit in its 9-5, 10-inning victory at New York, spoiling the major league debut of Brian Bannister. Last season, the Mets were 25-0 in home games in which they led by at least four runs.
Bannister held Washington hitless until Jose Vidro doubled with one out in the sixth. The last starting pitcher to take a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his major league debut was Cincinnati's Brian Reith (5 2/3 innings vs. Arizona. May 16, 2001).
Ryan Zimmerman's game-tying homer off Billy Wagner in the ninth inning spoiled Bannister's bid for a victory. Over the last 20 years, the only starter to win his major league debut this early in a season (his team's first or second game) was Rolando Arroyo (1998 Devil Rays, game #2).
The Nationals had a habit last season of turning journeyman pitchers into latter-day Walter Johnsons, so no one should jump onto the Brian Bannister Bandwagon just yet. If you know any Mets fans, though, you'll have to endure today insipid comparisons of Bannister to Dwight Gooden. We'll see if Bannister is capable of anything close to yesterday's performance as he makes his way through the National League. I'm not holding my breath.
Speaking of Gooden, he was sentenced yesterday to a year and a day in prison for violating his probation by using cocaine. As we said last year, Gooden's descent from baseball great to petty convict is one of the game's great tragedies.
Washington erased a 4-0 deficit in its 9-5, 10-inning victory at New York, spoiling the major league debut of Brian Bannister. Last season, the Mets were 25-0 in home games in which they led by at least four runs.
Bannister held Washington hitless until Jose Vidro doubled with one out in the sixth. The last starting pitcher to take a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his major league debut was Cincinnati's Brian Reith (5 2/3 innings vs. Arizona. May 16, 2001).
Ryan Zimmerman's game-tying homer off Billy Wagner in the ninth inning spoiled Bannister's bid for a victory. Over the last 20 years, the only starter to win his major league debut this early in a season (his team's first or second game) was Rolando Arroyo (1998 Devil Rays, game #2).
The Nationals had a habit last season of turning journeyman pitchers into latter-day Walter Johnsons, so no one should jump onto the Brian Bannister Bandwagon just yet. If you know any Mets fans, though, you'll have to endure today insipid comparisons of Bannister to Dwight Gooden. We'll see if Bannister is capable of anything close to yesterday's performance as he makes his way through the National League. I'm not holding my breath.
Speaking of Gooden, he was sentenced yesterday to a year and a day in prison for violating his probation by using cocaine. As we said last year, Gooden's descent from baseball great to petty convict is one of the game's great tragedies.
Oh, that's what the first half was like...
The Nationals hit 173 home runs last year. They hit three last night in a great, come-from-behind victory over the hateful Mets (that's for a fantasy league competitor). Despite a bad performance from John Patterson--four earned runs, two home runs, and ninety pitches in only four innings--the Nationals scored three in the sixth, one in the ninth, and five in the tenth. This is the kind of comeback that was commonplace during the first half last year, but was virtually gone by mid-August. In other words, last night's drama reminded us all of what it like to be a Nats fan over the first 81 games last year.
It was Ryan Zimmerman's homer off Billy Wagner in the ninth that was the night's most dramatic event. Wagner is one of those pitchers who throws so hard you wonder how the catcher's hand survives the confrontation with the ball. Anyway, Wagner uncorked a 93 mph fastball, and Zimmerman absolutely crushed it. This guy is for real, folks. Frank Robinson is right to urge caution so Zim can grow into the job, but it's hard not to get excited about this guy.
Of course, the ongoing drama that is Alfonso Soriano was also compelling. Instead of running out a pop-up that started foul but ended fair, Soriano watched as he stood in the batter's box. As Jose Guillen said, everyone knows Frank Robinson, and everyone knows how he reacts to loafing. Well, that is everyone but Soriano. But the Fonz knows now, because Robinson quickly benched him, and Soriano now had the opportunity to watch the rest of the game from the dugout.
Why anyone on this team would fail to hustle given Robinson's drill-sergeant reputation is beyond us. And Soriano is quickly developing a reputation as a guy who doesn't care much about anything but himself. He's a real asset at second (less so in left), so let's hope he sees the light pretty quickly.
It was Ryan Zimmerman's homer off Billy Wagner in the ninth that was the night's most dramatic event. Wagner is one of those pitchers who throws so hard you wonder how the catcher's hand survives the confrontation with the ball. Anyway, Wagner uncorked a 93 mph fastball, and Zimmerman absolutely crushed it. This guy is for real, folks. Frank Robinson is right to urge caution so Zim can grow into the job, but it's hard not to get excited about this guy.
Of course, the ongoing drama that is Alfonso Soriano was also compelling. Instead of running out a pop-up that started foul but ended fair, Soriano watched as he stood in the batter's box. As Jose Guillen said, everyone knows Frank Robinson, and everyone knows how he reacts to loafing. Well, that is everyone but Soriano. But the Fonz knows now, because Robinson quickly benched him, and Soriano now had the opportunity to watch the rest of the game from the dugout.
Why anyone on this team would fail to hustle given Robinson's drill-sergeant reputation is beyond us. And Soriano is quickly developing a reputation as a guy who doesn't care much about anything but himself. He's a real asset at second (less so in left), so let's hope he sees the light pretty quickly.
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
The road from here...
We were very critical of Jim Bowden last year, and justifiably so. His moves around the All Star Break were wrong-headed and merely moved the team laterally, at best. We're convinced that Bowden isn't the right guy for the job, but let's let bygones be bygones.
Let's focus on what the Nationals should be doing for the rest of this season. A playoff spot is out of the question, and acting as if the postseason is a realistic possibility will only push the team further down a rathole for the future.
What the Nats need to do this year is position the team for the future. They need to acquire young, cheap talent both in the major and minor leagues that will provide a foundation for winning for years to come.
What's gone unnoticed is that the team has actually made some quiet strides forward in this regard. The scouting department has been doing a pretty good job of finding talent, and the team has made some tentative steps toward building an effective Latin American scouting program. We anticipate that these efforts will continue, and we hope the new owner will invest even more aggressively in them.
Meanwhile, the team needs to forget about squeezing the last drip of talent out of players like Cristian Guzman and Jose Vidro. Alfonso Soriano won't be everything the team needs, but he's a lot more valuable at second than he is in left. Whatever his limitations, Ryan Church should be starting in left. With Guillen in right, the focus should be in acquiring a quality center fielder, something, we're sad to say, that the Nats lacked when Brad Wilkerson was prowling the confines of RFK. Wilkerson will no doubt put up much better numbers in hitter friendly Ameriquest Field, but, for whatever reason, he was unlikely to be productive in RFK.
With Ryan Zimmerman at third, Soriano at second, Nick Johnson at first, and Brian Schneider at catcher, the team has to focus its attention like a laser on getting a quality shortstop. Soriano may be traded this season, but if so the Nats should get something significant in return, hopefully good middle infielder. You'll notice that we're leaving Jose Vidro out of this conversation. That's because he's way past his prime, and the Nats would be wise to get whatever they can for him this season. Investing large sums of money in aging players past their prime (e.g., Vidro) or players who are just plain bad (e.g., Guzman) is a losing strategy for a team building for the future. The Pirates tried that strategy with disastrous effects, and the Nationals should do everything they can to avoid the same collision course with sanity.
Let's focus on what the Nationals should be doing for the rest of this season. A playoff spot is out of the question, and acting as if the postseason is a realistic possibility will only push the team further down a rathole for the future.
What the Nats need to do this year is position the team for the future. They need to acquire young, cheap talent both in the major and minor leagues that will provide a foundation for winning for years to come.
What's gone unnoticed is that the team has actually made some quiet strides forward in this regard. The scouting department has been doing a pretty good job of finding talent, and the team has made some tentative steps toward building an effective Latin American scouting program. We anticipate that these efforts will continue, and we hope the new owner will invest even more aggressively in them.
Meanwhile, the team needs to forget about squeezing the last drip of talent out of players like Cristian Guzman and Jose Vidro. Alfonso Soriano won't be everything the team needs, but he's a lot more valuable at second than he is in left. Whatever his limitations, Ryan Church should be starting in left. With Guillen in right, the focus should be in acquiring a quality center fielder, something, we're sad to say, that the Nats lacked when Brad Wilkerson was prowling the confines of RFK. Wilkerson will no doubt put up much better numbers in hitter friendly Ameriquest Field, but, for whatever reason, he was unlikely to be productive in RFK.
With Ryan Zimmerman at third, Soriano at second, Nick Johnson at first, and Brian Schneider at catcher, the team has to focus its attention like a laser on getting a quality shortstop. Soriano may be traded this season, but if so the Nats should get something significant in return, hopefully good middle infielder. You'll notice that we're leaving Jose Vidro out of this conversation. That's because he's way past his prime, and the Nats would be wise to get whatever they can for him this season. Investing large sums of money in aging players past their prime (e.g., Vidro) or players who are just plain bad (e.g., Guzman) is a losing strategy for a team building for the future. The Pirates tried that strategy with disastrous effects, and the Nationals should do everything they can to avoid the same collision course with sanity.
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Here's what smart investment can do for a team...
From the Elias Sports Bureau:
The Mets started three infielders Monday who are not yet 24 years old: Anderson Hernandez (23, 2B), Jose Reyes (22, SS) and David Wright (23, 3B). The only other big-league team in the last 40 years to start a second baseman, shortstop and third baseman, all under 24, in a season opener was the 1981 Braves: Glenn Hubbard (23, 2B), Rafael Ramirez (23, SS) and Bob Horner (23, 3B).
The Mets started three infielders Monday who are not yet 24 years old: Anderson Hernandez (23, 2B), Jose Reyes (22, SS) and David Wright (23, 3B). The only other big-league team in the last 40 years to start a second baseman, shortstop and third baseman, all under 24, in a season opener was the 1981 Braves: Glenn Hubbard (23, 2B), Rafael Ramirez (23, SS) and Bob Horner (23, 3B).
Monday, April 03, 2006
Nationals Interest 2.0
Thanks to all those readers who sent kind emails (and comments) asking us to blog again this year. I'll be honest: we actually were contemplating abandoning the blog. A serious blog requires more work than we imagined when we started this endeavor, and I'm a bit embarrassed to say that we found the whole enterprise pretty exhausting. We loved doing it, and we especially liked hearing from readers, but it was tiring, and we were often not able to devote the time we needed to make the blog as good as we wanted. That's a long way of apologizing both for the extended lay off and for the too frequent lackluster posts last season.
Nevertheless, we decided that we couldn't turn away from the computer screen this season, so here we are again. Given our absence, we have A LOT to say! We'll start tonight with a short statement on where the Nationals are now, and we'll continue the conversation over the next few days.
Unfortunately, the Nationals don't look much better now than they did at the end of last season. In fact, they look much worse. Vinny Castilla, Preston Wilson, and Brad Wilkerson are gone, but the execrable Cristian Guzman remains. He can't be any worse than he was last season and he will almost certaintly be materially better, but the improvement we need at shortstop is one of kind, not of degree. Jose Vidro is also still here, so we'll get to watch him travel down the water slide of his career one more year.
There are some good additions, like Alfonso Soriano and a full season of Ryan Zimmerman. We'll have more to say later about the former's temper tantrum regarding playing in the outfield, but the Nats need more Sorianos and fewer Vidros, so we'd just as soon like Franky to pencil the Fonz in as the everyday second baseman.
The real crime is not what the Nationals did in the off season, but what they didn't do. A number of our readers last year thought we were too pessimistic and too hard on Jim Bowden for not doing more to improve the team before the trade deadline. Well, we think events have proven us right. The Nationals played over their head in the first half of the season and could have used the delta between their potential and actual payroll to buy good players and lock in their upstart start. Instead, they fiddled at the margins by acquiring players like Preston Wilson. And without a real owner to approve new spending in the offseason, the Nationals failed to take advantage of their potential wealth and instead watched players like Esteban Loiaza walk away into the sunset. Not all of this is Bowden's fault, obviously. Much of the blame lies at the feet of the owners, who dickered with the City Council over every last penny rather than give the team a real shot at improving this season.
The result is that the Nationals have less promise this season than they did last year at this time, which means that a .500 season would be a monumental accomplishment.
Nevertheless, we decided that we couldn't turn away from the computer screen this season, so here we are again. Given our absence, we have A LOT to say! We'll start tonight with a short statement on where the Nationals are now, and we'll continue the conversation over the next few days.
Unfortunately, the Nationals don't look much better now than they did at the end of last season. In fact, they look much worse. Vinny Castilla, Preston Wilson, and Brad Wilkerson are gone, but the execrable Cristian Guzman remains. He can't be any worse than he was last season and he will almost certaintly be materially better, but the improvement we need at shortstop is one of kind, not of degree. Jose Vidro is also still here, so we'll get to watch him travel down the water slide of his career one more year.
There are some good additions, like Alfonso Soriano and a full season of Ryan Zimmerman. We'll have more to say later about the former's temper tantrum regarding playing in the outfield, but the Nats need more Sorianos and fewer Vidros, so we'd just as soon like Franky to pencil the Fonz in as the everyday second baseman.
The real crime is not what the Nationals did in the off season, but what they didn't do. A number of our readers last year thought we were too pessimistic and too hard on Jim Bowden for not doing more to improve the team before the trade deadline. Well, we think events have proven us right. The Nationals played over their head in the first half of the season and could have used the delta between their potential and actual payroll to buy good players and lock in their upstart start. Instead, they fiddled at the margins by acquiring players like Preston Wilson. And without a real owner to approve new spending in the offseason, the Nationals failed to take advantage of their potential wealth and instead watched players like Esteban Loiaza walk away into the sunset. Not all of this is Bowden's fault, obviously. Much of the blame lies at the feet of the owners, who dickered with the City Council over every last penny rather than give the team a real shot at improving this season.
The result is that the Nationals have less promise this season than they did last year at this time, which means that a .500 season would be a monumental accomplishment.
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