Our first thought after last night's game was to write a blistering post ripping Chad Cordero for blowing another save. But we thought about it and decided instead to write a post praising Cordero and the job he's done for the Nationals. Then we decided that Cordero should be traded.
Yes, Cordero blew the save last night, and, yes, Cordero blew key saves down the stretch last year, including one horrific home game against the Braves. But Cordero has been one of the best closers over the last two years. According to Baseball Prospectus, he finished 14th and 9th in Wins Expected Above Replacement Level in the last two seasons. There's no reason why Cordero can't continue to a productive closer, especially since he pitches in spacious RFK.
But, let's be realistic. The Nationals have A LOT of needs--starting pitching, shortstop, second base (assuming Soriano leaves), and the outfield. Acquiring productive talent in all of those positions is going to require three things: smart management, money, and talent to be used as trade bait. In the third category, Cordero is one of the Nationals' most valuable commodities. He is young, cheap, and occupies a coveted position. A team in the pennant stretch drive would give up something significant for a closer like that, and the Nationals need to be pursuing a lot of trades in which they acquire the young talent they need to fill their gaping holes in the lineup.
It's not like we'll never be able to find another closer. Eric Gagne, Chris Reitsma, and a whole lot of other closers didn't start out in that role. The inconvenient truth is that productive closers are pretty easy to find. Yes, dominating closers like Mariano Rivera aren't, but Cordero isn't Rivera. Let's also not forget that closers tend to have arm problems, and what's more likely to happen: Cordero reigns as an elite closer for ten years or some problem interrupts his march to the Hall of Fame? There aren't many closers who last that long, and we're willing to take the risk that Cordero will by trading him now. The Nationals need to start building for their future, and Cordero can help them take a big step in that direction.
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3 comments:
After this past off season, I'm not sure it makes much sense to talk about trading players until the GM/owner question is settled. No matter how good the trade bait, it's likely to be squandered unless the GM can recognize a good trade.
The examples of a pitching trade with a season ending labrum injury the first day of spring training, and a disruptive battle about position with the $10 million man, are not examples that give me confidence that this GM understands a difference between trading and gambling.
I agree that nothing meaningful is going to happen until we get a real owner. And once we get a real owner I hope we'll get a new GM because I can't see Jim Bowden taking this team to the promised land. And I agree that Bowden hasn't done anything to earn our confidence.
Having said that, I think, as we've said in prior posts, that this season is really about improving for the future, so I hope the team, the new owners, the press, etc., use the opportunity to explore and discuss all available means of taking the team to the next level.
Things are going swimmingly.
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