Thursday, May 10, 2007

A diamond deep in the rough


As the Nationals were being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, the frustration and promise of this lost season were there for everyone to see. Not surprisingly, the players are frustrated as the losses mount; Austin Kearns said, "I don't think you can do this for six months."

But the bright spot was Jason Bergmann, an unknown before this season lost in the Nationals' farm system. The exodus from the major league roster of nearly every pitcher with a combination of talent and experience created an opportunity for Bergmann, and he has made the most of it. He gave up only one run and two hits over six innings and lowered his ERA to 3.07. Unfortunately, he has nothing to show for it; he's 0-3, primarily because he gets no run support from the Nationals' anemic lineup.

But like everything with the Nationals now, Bergmann will realize his promise only if he improves significantly over the course of this season. He walked two and struck out only two yesterday; that's OK when you allow only two hits, but there won't be many games when Bergmann is able to do that. As we've said before, Bergmann is relying right now on a very high percentage of the balls put into play being hit for outs. That can't continue, and as that percentage falls the number of batters he puts on base will rise and his ERA will likely rise with it.

Nothing is inevitable, though. Bergmann is a work in progress in a year in which the Nationals are seeking works in progress. Pitching coach Randy St. Clair needs to earn his keep by helping Bergmann become a better pitcher so that Bergmann can be a consistent producer on next year's roster. If players like Bergmann don't improve, this will truly be a lost year.



Here is a very good example of how bad the Nationals' offense is. Bergmann was due up last night with two outs in the top of the seventh and the score tied 1-1. Manny Acta decided to send up a pinch hitter. Bergmann had thrown only 79 pitches, so he could have gone at least another inning. But the object is to win games so pinch hitter for a young pitcher you'd like to keep around for a long time made sense. Ideally, Acta would have sent up someone with either a high OBP percentage so the Nats could start a two-out rally or someone with a high SLG so they could put the Nationals ahead with one swing.

The problem, of course, is that the nationals don't have anyone fitting either description on their bench. So, Acta sent up Nook Logan to pinch hit for Bergmann. Logan's OPS is .286. You read that right--his OPS is .286, not his on base percentage or his batting average. His OBP, SLG, and his AVG are all .143.

Guess what Bergmann's stats are? You got it, .143 each for his OBP, SLG, and his AVG. In other words, the Nationals didn't materially improve their offensive situation by pinch hitting for Bergmann.

Yes, yes, I know, Logan only has seven at bats. And, yes, Logan's numbers will rise, but to what? His career OBP is .317, and his career SLG is .344. Pretty anemic on an already anemic team.

So, what did Logan do last night?

He struck out.



How is Ryan Langerhans doing? You remember him--the Nats got him from the A's for Chris Snelling, a pretty good hitter who was looking forward to the opportunity to prove himself as a regular player. In 57 at bats this season, Langerhans' line is .088/.197/.123. Jim Bowden says that he traded for Langerhans because the team needed a good defensive outfielder. He'd better be Willie Mays out there because he's worse than Mark Belanger at the plate right now.

Meanwhile, Snelling is getting on base in Oakland with freakish consistency: .389/.522/.389. He's only had 18 at bats, but given that his career OBP is 25 points higher than Langerhans', we expect that we'll see Snelling on the basepaths a lot more often than Langerhans.

Of course, that is, if Snelling stays healthy because he's an injury risk. But isn't that the point? Shouldn't the Nationals be taking on more risk this year? Why get a guy like Langerhans who you know will be mediocre when you can take a change on Snelling?



Roger Clemens' trivia from Jayson Stark: "Clemens doesn't just wear No. 22. He wears it to dinner, eats it for breakfast and writes it into his contracts.

So what number will you see in Clemens' contract, once it finally gets written?

$28,000,022.

Of course."

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