Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Let's stay upbeat, people!

The Nationals are going to lose a lot of game--A LOT of games. They now are 9-17. Only Kansas City has a worse record (8-19), and the Nats are only a game and a half behind the Royals in the race for the worst record in baseball. If we assume the Nationals will have the same winning percentage at the end of the season that they have now--.346--they will end the season with a 56-106 record. If, however, we assume that their expected record (7-19) more closely approximates their final winning percentage, the Nationals' record will be 44-118, meaning that they would finish two losses short of the post-1900 record of 120 losses set by the 1962 New York Mets.

We need to have some perspective here, though. The salient point is not how many games the Nats lose, but that they're going to lose a lot of them. I say this because it would be a huge mistake to look at games like last night's 3-0 loss to the San Diego Padres as a failure. The Nationals' management has to approach every game as an opportunity to evaluate players they may want to keep next year and to showcase other players who may command good, young talent in trades. The players and Manny Acta, obviously, are going to want to win, but Jim Bowden, Stan Kasten, and the Lerners have to be realistic; they have to focus on the future because that's the only way this team will improve.

So, was there anything from last night's game that should give Jim Bowden some comfort? Yes.

Shawn Hill pitched a pretty good game, giving up three runs, four hits, and three walks while striking out five over 6 1/3 innings. That's encouraging, because Hill has pitched well over 39 innings now:

ERAWHIPK/9BB/9K/BBH/9
3.001.085.772.542.277.15

We'd like to see his strikeout ratio climb above 6.00 and his walk ratio fall below 2, but these are good numbers. Hill also is befuddling hitters: .217/.287/.329.

Will Hill be great? No, but he could be consistently pretty good, and that could help a team like the Nationals because he's a low-priced player. That's a silver lining from last night's loss, which will be meaningless a few years from now. Shawn Hill, however, could be a lot more meaningful to the Nationals.

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