Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Order is restored, at least for now...

Going into last night's game, journeyman Jerome Williams had a lower ERA than staff ace John Patterson. That produced a wrinkle in the space-time continuum, which caused the Bay Bridge to collapse and LeBron James to go 8 for 22 against the Wizards last night.

Order had to be restored if our planet was to survive, and, thankfully, Patterson took a big step in that direction last night as the Nats beat the San Diego Padres 3-2. Patterson served up his best outing this season, giving up one run and four hits over six innings. Patterson walked two and struck out three. You can see highlights of his performance here. Patterson needed every bit of that perfomance because he was pitching against one of the best pitchers in the game--Jake Peavy. Peavy came into the game with an ERA under 2.00 and has been dominating hitters; his K/BB ratio is over 3.5 (Patterson's is .74).

Patterson wasn't back to his 2005 form, but he was light years beyond his 2007 performance. If we can believe Patterson's self-diagnosis, he's getting stronger:

"It was better today," Patterson said. "I've been working tremendously hard on my mechanics. I'm just trying to generate some power with my legs, let my arm work, and just take some of the stress off of it. Early in the game, I definitely saw a difference in the life on my fastball and the velocity was a little bit better, which carried over into my breaking balls."

Also better was Chad Cordero, who didn't blow a save. Instead, Cordero put down the Padres 1-2-3 in the ninth for his fourth save in seven tries.

So, this was another good game for a Nats' starting pitcher. Let's hope it is what it looks like--a real step forward for Patterson on his road to recovery. Let's remember, though, that Patterson's ERA is still above Williams', so watch for falling objects.


Ray King was back for the first time since April 10, a spot having been cleared for him by Williams' trip to the DL. How did he do? Not great--one inning, one home run, one earned run. As a bullpen lefty for a last place team, King has no real value for the Nats other than as trade bait. Before you vomit in your mouth, realize that teams in pennant races often need a lefty late in the season to prepare to face hitters like David Ortiz in the playoffs. King could command some value in a late-season trade, so the goal now is to fatten up his numbers--wait, sorry, wrong methaphor. King is 6'1" and 242 pounds.

Let me try again. The goal now is for King to post good numbers, thereby making him appear attractive to potential suitors. That's how the Nationals have to be thinking about virtually everyone on the roster.



Let's go back to Jake Peavy for a second. He's a young, dominant pitcher on a team with a long-term plan. Peavy's salary is $4.75 million. To put that in context, Cristian Guzman will make $4.2 million this year. It's hard to build a good team on a budget when you make salary mistakes like that.

In any event, Peavy is exactly the kind of young pitcher the Nats want, but they're very hard to find. Detroit and Oakland have done phenomenal jobs in stocking their roster with good, young pitchers, but they had to make controversial trades to do it. Does anyone remember the reaction of the pundits to Oakland's decision to trade Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder for prospects? ESPN commentators used it as an opportunity to heap scorn on Billy Beane's "Moneyball" strategy. The cries were long and loud that Beane had been fleeced by better GMs at Atlanta and St. Louis. Now, those trades look like a stroke of genius. Hudson and Mulder have underperformed, and the A's have something every other team in baseball wants--talented young pitchers.

The Nationals don't have a Hudson or Mulder to trade, but they do have Patterson, Cordero, and some other lesser lights. Their lack of marquee names means that the Nats will probably have to take chances on even younger (and, therefore, more speculative) arms, but that's a chance they're going to have to take. There is no way this team can get to where it wants to go without young pitching. The notion that the Nats can buy a great pitching staff is lunacy, and it's sure to bankrupt the team.

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