It's not John Patterson, the putative number 1 starter who is struggling to keep his ERA below 7. It's probably Shawn Hill. Hill pitched another strong game last night: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K. Hill's ERA is now 2.76, and is the Nationals' most reliable pitcher.
The chances of Hill continuing to pitch at this level are about the same as Dan Snyder becoming humble. Hill has a good sinker, but not a lot of heat. His success therefore depends on hitters hitting a lot of ground balls for outs. He's helped by the relatively spacious dimensions of RFK, but there will be a number of games in which Hill's finesse game gets shelled like Omaha Beach on D-Day. Still, Hill is a pretty good pitcher who could probably be a number 4 starter. On this team now, though, being as good as a number 4 starter catapults you to the number 1 spot.
The number 2 starter should be Jason Bergmann. He has a positive VORP (value over replacement player) of 3.9 and an ERA of 3.27. Bergmann also has some power behind his pitch--his K/9 ratio is 8.18. His problem is that he walks hitters as often as my wife wants me to walk our dog, which is a lot. His BB/9 ratio is 5.32, which is terrible. His saving grace is that he's given up only 14 hits in 22 innings. His walk rate is too high for him to be consistently good, but if he can reduce it he could be a pretty good pitcher, perhaps a number 4 or number 5 pitcher on a team with a pretty good staff. He's only 25, so there should be some further development for him.
I'm getting ahead of myself, but the feeling of dread is too much, so I need to get this out of the way now: Jerome Williams is awful in the same way Crash was awful--one of the worst movies ever to win the Best Picture Oscar. Having an ERA that equals a model number of a Boeing airplane says it all. You can read more here, but it's not for the faint of heart. Suffice it to say that Jerome isn't a number 5 starter now; in fact, he's not a starter at all. He should be fitted with a restraint anklet that keeps him on clubhouse arrest and off the field.
That leaves John Patterson and Matt Chico. Here is our view of Patterson. There's not a whole lot the team can do now besides wait for Patterson to develop arm strength, assuming that's his problem.
As for Chico, he has some talent and, given the team's depleted talent, is a guy who should be given a chance to excel this year. Will he do it? He might. He's only 24 with a low-90s fastball and a decent curve. Sound like somebody you know? Think of the surprise starter that emerged for the Nats in 2005. If he's going to be successful, he has to reduce his walks and increase his strikeouts. With some quality coaching, Chico could become a useful starter, maybe a number 4 or 5 starter.
If you're still reading, you've noticed that the Nationals have three starters who should be number 4 or 5 starters. That doesn't bode well for the team's future staff, meaning that the Nats have to develop front-of-the-rotation starters from their farm system or acquire them through free agency. The Nats have a lot of money to spend, but quality starters have become shockingly expensive recently, so the farm system route is preferred. Do the Nats have the arms in their system they need?
More on that next week.
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4 comments:
Crash was not an awful movie. Indeed, it was a good film. I'm familiar with a strain of thought that criticizes the film for its' nefarious depiction of race relations in Los Angeles. I'm unsure if this is the blogs' perspective. However, in my experience this is one of the things that the filmmakers got right. Indeed, in a city in which gangs from El Salvador purposely hunt down African-Americans,the movies' theme of palpable anger amongst the races seems tame.
Further, the film is one of the recent movies that has used LA as a setting and the director got the pictures and the places just right.
By the way, since the authors of this blog attended the LA Laker / Washington Wizards game in January, both teams have gone in the tank. Please refrain from attending any LA Dodgers / Nats games.
Great comment!
Crash was awful for reasons that had nothing to do with LA. A movie that depicts every single person of every single race as violently racist is absurd. And a movie that creates suspense by putting a child in harm's way is cheap. A movie that does both is awful.
The Nats are already in the tank, and the McCourts are going to ensure that the Dodgers are there soon!
I apologize. It's not your criticisms of the film Crash that warrrant comment, it's your definition of the word awful.
Your vicious attacks upon the McCourts will not go unheeded.
They have revived baseball (along with Arte Moreno and Vladimir Guerrero) in la ciudad.
I agree that the McCourts brought new life to LA baseball, but it's become obvious that the only thing that matters to them is marketing the McCourts. The Dodgers have no coherent strategy other than that.
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