The Los Angeles Dodgers fired General Manager Paul DePodesta today, only one year after the Dodgers hired him. We're Dodger fans, so this is probably more interesting to us than to most of our readers, but we think this decision shows that the Dodger owners--the McCourts--are both stupid and incompetent. No matter what you think of DePodesta, there is no way that he could put his stamp on the team in only one year, especially with all of the injuries the Dodgers suffered this year. Firing him before he could prove his worth is just plain dumb.
The Dodgers were a team in need of an overhaul before DePodesta was hired, and Frank McCourt was right to put the team in the hands of a GM who would bring a different outlook and a new discipline to baseball decisions. DePodesta immediately made some of the changes that were obviously necessary to anyone who wasn't blinded by amorphous concepts like "character," including trading older players who were popular, but who did not add significant value to the team. DePodesta made the team much younger and gave it much more payroll flexibility. We didn't agree with all of his moves--he spent too much on Derek Lowe--but he put the Dodgers in a better position for the long term.
By firing DePodesta after the McCourts gave him the authority to fire Jim Tracy is inexplicable. As Dodger fans, we haven't been this depressed about the franchise in a long time, and there has been a lot to be depressed about over the last decade.
We hope that Major League Baseball selects an ownership team for the Nationals that is more stable and much smarter than the McCourts. And we hope that that ownership team makes Paul DePodesta the team's new GM.
Saturday, October 29, 2005
Friday, October 28, 2005
That's too bad
Peter Gammons reported this morning that the Red Sox are likely to sign Theo Epstein, Red Sox GM, to a new contract today. In addition, Josh Byrnes, Red Sox Asst. GM, is likely to sign on as the new Diamondbacks GM any day now.
We hate to rain on the parade, but...
On the same day that the Nationals extended his contract through April, Jim Bowden made two moves yesterday. He signed Damian Jackson, a 31-year old utility infielder, to a one-year, $700,000 deal. Bowden also signed second baseman Bernie Castro, who debuted with the Baltimore Orioles last season. Bowden believes that these two deals will improve the Nats' bench and help remedy the Nats' lack of speed.
These moves are unlikey to have any significant impact on the Nationals going forward. We start with the fact that Damian Jackson was outrighted by the San Diego Padres. Next consider that his lifetime OPS is .680, and his OPS last year was .677. The league-average OPS for second basemen last year was .752. (We doubt Jackson will play much shortstop because his fielding stats at the position are not very good.) But his speed will help us, right? Only if he gets on base. Jackson's lifetime OBP is .325, and over the last five years (excluding 2004, when he played in only 21 games) it's been .335, .294, .320, and .316. The league-average OBP for second basemen last year was .338.
In other words, with Jackson we're getting below-average performance for not a whole lot of money. It could be worse, though; we could have acquired below-average performance for $16 million a la Cristian Guzman. Bowden tried that last year, so maybe he's learning.
As for Bernie Castro, much may depend on whether you think he's 24 or 26. At 24, his minor league stats could show some promise, given that he would be three years away from his prime. Last year, his minor league OPS was .746, and he stole 41 bases. On the other hand, if he's 26, as MLB.com says, he's basically at his prime and isn't likely to get much better, meaning that his .710 OPS in 80 at bats with the Orioles last year is about as good as it's going to get.
We think these deals are minor events, which, at best, will marginally improve the Nats' bench next year. We have some doubt whether there will be any improvement, but we don't blame Jim Bowden for that.
The salient point is that there isn't a whole lot Bowden can do at this point until the Nationals get an owner. Only then will he (or another GM) be able to commit the Nationals to a defined strategic course. In the meantime, Bowden will continue to tinker at the margins of this team, and he'll continue to overhype the castoffs he acquires from other teams. Some of those moves will be defensible moves, and, we suspect, some will not. But let's not make of this something more than it is.
These moves are unlikey to have any significant impact on the Nationals going forward. We start with the fact that Damian Jackson was outrighted by the San Diego Padres. Next consider that his lifetime OPS is .680, and his OPS last year was .677. The league-average OPS for second basemen last year was .752. (We doubt Jackson will play much shortstop because his fielding stats at the position are not very good.) But his speed will help us, right? Only if he gets on base. Jackson's lifetime OBP is .325, and over the last five years (excluding 2004, when he played in only 21 games) it's been .335, .294, .320, and .316. The league-average OBP for second basemen last year was .338.
In other words, with Jackson we're getting below-average performance for not a whole lot of money. It could be worse, though; we could have acquired below-average performance for $16 million a la Cristian Guzman. Bowden tried that last year, so maybe he's learning.
As for Bernie Castro, much may depend on whether you think he's 24 or 26. At 24, his minor league stats could show some promise, given that he would be three years away from his prime. Last year, his minor league OPS was .746, and he stole 41 bases. On the other hand, if he's 26, as MLB.com says, he's basically at his prime and isn't likely to get much better, meaning that his .710 OPS in 80 at bats with the Orioles last year is about as good as it's going to get.
We think these deals are minor events, which, at best, will marginally improve the Nats' bench next year. We have some doubt whether there will be any improvement, but we don't blame Jim Bowden for that.
The salient point is that there isn't a whole lot Bowden can do at this point until the Nationals get an owner. Only then will he (or another GM) be able to commit the Nationals to a defined strategic course. In the meantime, Bowden will continue to tinker at the margins of this team, and he'll continue to overhype the castoffs he acquires from other teams. Some of those moves will be defensible moves, and, we suspect, some will not. But let's not make of this something more than it is.
Thursday, October 27, 2005
Day Laborer
The Post reports that the Nationals have signed Jim Bowden to a short-term contract:
The Washington Nationals today extended the contract of General Manager Jim Bowden through April, a move that gives the ownerless franchise an idea of who will be making decisions on the roster and coaching staff entering the 2006 season.
Bowden apparently has some ideas on how the front office can operate more effectively:
Bowden, in turn, reshaped his front office, naming former major league catcher and manager Bob Boone to head the player development department, the most significant in a series of appointments that put Bowden's stamp on the baseball side of the Nationals' business.
Whither Frank Robinson?
Bowden said he has not made a decision on whether to retain Manager Frank Robinson and his coaching staff. He said he would like to have an answer "hopefully by Thanksgiving."
The Washington Nationals today extended the contract of General Manager Jim Bowden through April, a move that gives the ownerless franchise an idea of who will be making decisions on the roster and coaching staff entering the 2006 season.
Bowden apparently has some ideas on how the front office can operate more effectively:
Bowden, in turn, reshaped his front office, naming former major league catcher and manager Bob Boone to head the player development department, the most significant in a series of appointments that put Bowden's stamp on the baseball side of the Nationals' business.
Whither Frank Robinson?
Bowden said he has not made a decision on whether to retain Manager Frank Robinson and his coaching staff. He said he would like to have an answer "hopefully by Thanksgiving."
...but we didn't expect this
It doesn't look like Theo Epstein, Red Sox GM, will be back with the team next year. ESPN.com reports:
General manager Theo Epstein, who becomes a free agent on Nov. 1, turned down an offer of $1.2 million a season for at least three years, The Boston Globe reported.
It appears that money is not the only hurdle in the negotiations -- specifically a personality clash in management styles between Lucchino and Epstein.
It's not known if this offer is the Red Sox final one, but the matter is expected to be resolved either way in the next 24-48 hours, the paper reported.
The personality clash appears to be quite bad, and a Boston Herald columnist says that the Red Sox are "smearing" Esptein.
The Red Sox would be crazy to let Epstein go, and the Nationals would be crazy not to pursue him. Of course, it doesn't help that the Nats don't have an owner yet, and this is just one more example of how Major League Baseball's failure to sell the team in a timely fashion is killing the Nationals' chances to do anything productive.
In any event, while they're considering GM candidates from Boston, the Nats should consider Josh Byrnes, Red Sox Assistant GM. Byrnes apparently is talking with the Diamondbacks about their open GM job.
General manager Theo Epstein, who becomes a free agent on Nov. 1, turned down an offer of $1.2 million a season for at least three years, The Boston Globe reported.
It appears that money is not the only hurdle in the negotiations -- specifically a personality clash in management styles between Lucchino and Epstein.
It's not known if this offer is the Red Sox final one, but the matter is expected to be resolved either way in the next 24-48 hours, the paper reported.
The personality clash appears to be quite bad, and a Boston Herald columnist says that the Red Sox are "smearing" Esptein.
The Red Sox would be crazy to let Epstein go, and the Nationals would be crazy not to pursue him. Of course, it doesn't help that the Nats don't have an owner yet, and this is just one more example of how Major League Baseball's failure to sell the team in a timely fashion is killing the Nationals' chances to do anything productive.
In any event, while they're considering GM candidates from Boston, the Nats should consider Josh Byrnes, Red Sox Assistant GM. Byrnes apparently is talking with the Diamondbacks about their open GM job.
That's one down...
Brian Cashman won't be the Nationals' GM next year because he's reupped with the Yankees. Cashman signed a three-year deal worth $5 million that will keep him in the Bronx Zoo a lot longer than we had hoped.
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
Brad!
Brad Wilkerson has an "offical fan website". It everything that a breathless Wilkerson fan would want, I guess, but something about it seems odd. Here's the text from the home page:
Welcome, baseball fans, to the official fan website for Brad Wilkerson, professional baseball player for the Washington Nationals. Brad hopes that you enjoy his new website, so let us know what you think by ckicking the picture to the left. You can also navigate the website with the links below, including a new message board. Take part and enjoy!
If you're going to Wilkerson's website, do you really need to be told that he is a "professional baseball player"?
Welcome, baseball fans, to the official fan website for Brad Wilkerson, professional baseball player for the Washington Nationals. Brad hopes that you enjoy his new website, so let us know what you think by ckicking the picture to the left. You can also navigate the website with the links below, including a new message board. Take part and enjoy!
If you're going to Wilkerson's website, do you really need to be told that he is a "professional baseball player"?
The wrecking ball is coming
The Post reports that the city "filed court papers yesterday to seize $84 million worth of property from 16 owners in Southeast, giving them 90 days to leave and make way for a baseball stadium." The property owners don't have a lot of options; although they can negotiate for more money, any dispute over the amount may not be resolved until well after they're displaced.
On the other hand, it sounds like there will be major development of the waterfront area:
Developers have snatched up land just outside the stadium plot in anticipation of a waterfront revival, and the city is planning to create a "ballpark district" featuring restaurants and retail.
The MCI Center spurred a dramatic revival of the Penn Quarter area, so let's hope the baseball stadium has the same effect on the waterfront.
On the other hand, it sounds like there will be major development of the waterfront area:
Developers have snatched up land just outside the stadium plot in anticipation of a waterfront revival, and the city is planning to create a "ballpark district" featuring restaurants and retail.
The MCI Center spurred a dramatic revival of the Penn Quarter area, so let's hope the baseball stadium has the same effect on the waterfront.
You're kidding, right?
The Nationals apparently are negotiating a new contract with Jim Bowden, even before Major League Baseball selects a new owner of the team. The duration of the extension is unclear:
... while an extension for Bowden would provide near-term stability, it likely won't extend into next season, one source said. Baseball officials are still in the process of choosing from among eight groups interested in purchasing the Nationals from MLB. Tavares has said he believes the new owner should have the right to choose the team's president, general manager and manager.
The Nationals apparently want to sign Bowden to a very short-term extension for the purpose of stability in the free-agent signing period of the off-season. Why would Bowden sign an extension? The only rational reason would be that he has no other options. If he can sign now with another team and eliminate the uncertainty about his future, we assume he will do that.
This story raises two important issues. First, and most importantly, it's very important that MLB move quickly and select an owner. The delay is materially harming the Nationals' ability to move forward with any off-season plan, and they won't be able to do anything significant even with a GM until a new owner is on the job.
Second, the new owner will have to make a decision on a GM very quickly. As the incumbent (to use Chris Needham's word), Bowden probably will have an advantage because the alternative--interviewing and evaluating candidates--will take some time that the Nats may not have, depending on when an owner is selected. If a new owner is selected soon, a new GM is a distinct possibility. If not, we may be stuck with Bowden for another year.
Ugh!
... while an extension for Bowden would provide near-term stability, it likely won't extend into next season, one source said. Baseball officials are still in the process of choosing from among eight groups interested in purchasing the Nationals from MLB. Tavares has said he believes the new owner should have the right to choose the team's president, general manager and manager.
The Nationals apparently want to sign Bowden to a very short-term extension for the purpose of stability in the free-agent signing period of the off-season. Why would Bowden sign an extension? The only rational reason would be that he has no other options. If he can sign now with another team and eliminate the uncertainty about his future, we assume he will do that.
This story raises two important issues. First, and most importantly, it's very important that MLB move quickly and select an owner. The delay is materially harming the Nationals' ability to move forward with any off-season plan, and they won't be able to do anything significant even with a GM until a new owner is on the job.
Second, the new owner will have to make a decision on a GM very quickly. As the incumbent (to use Chris Needham's word), Bowden probably will have an advantage because the alternative--interviewing and evaluating candidates--will take some time that the Nats may not have, depending on when an owner is selected. If a new owner is selected soon, a new GM is a distinct possibility. If not, we may be stuck with Bowden for another year.
Ugh!
Another view
Check out Chris Needham's takes on the Nationals' situation at first base and catcher. Not surprisingly, we agree that the Nats should keep Schneider and Johnson for the reasons we articulated in our retrospective piece on position players. As for Castilla...
Monday, October 24, 2005
A forward looking retrospective
Now that the season has ended, I'm no longer on Beijing time, and I've avoided the avian flu, it's time to look back on the season that was. But just looking back doesn't interest us much, so we'll use this post to suggest some changes the Nationals should make before they take the field next April. We'll focus on position players today and pitchers later this week.
Given that the Nationals were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, you won't be surprised to hear that we advocate big changes. We're not talking about tweaking the lineup or filling a hole, we're talking about rebuilding an offense that was embarrassingly bad. At a minimum the Nationals need a left fielder and either a shortstop or a third baseman, depending on where Ryan Zimmerman plays next year. We're assuming that Zimmerman will be the everyday third baseman, but, as you'll see, we propose that Zimmerman move to short and the Nationals acquire a big hitting third baseman. That would upgrade dramatically the team's production from the left side of the infield.
The team also needs either the old Vidro at second and the old Brad Wilkerson in center or new players at both positions. Vidro and Wilkerson vastly underperformed expectations last season, and while we all hope they'll return to form next year, there's more than a little bit of doubt in our minds about that. We'd like to see Rick Short at second and Jose Vidro in another uniform, but that isn't likely. We nevertheless can dream. In any event, second and center are longer term projects because Vidro and Wilkerson will be given a chance to prove themselves again.
The Nationals can't make all these changes in one off-season. They should, however, start the rebuilding process now by selectively acquiring young players who are likely to be consistently productive major leaguers for a long time to come. The worst thing they could do is repeat their Cristian Guzman mistake--overpay for average production from players past their prime. They need to be patient, and we, as fans, needed to patient, too.
This post is laden with numbers, some of which we haven't used before. Here's an explanation of the terms that are new to this blog. OPS+ comes from baseball-reference.com; it normalizes OPS for both the park and the league in which the player played, thereby providing a better method for comparing hitters. EQA, which comes from baseballprospectus.com, also attempts to create one number for comparison purposes; it measures total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense.
We've tried to analyze both offensive and defensive production because readers from time to time criticize us for not valuing a player's defense or recognizing that a player is such a defensive liability that he doesn't belong on the field. RF is an acronym for range factor. It comes from ESPN.com and is calculated as follows: (put outs + assists)/innings played. RATE 2 also comes from baseballprospectus.com; it calculates a fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A higher number is better for both RF and RATE 2.
It was a great season for Schneider, who established himself both on the offensive and defensive sides. We'd like to see more at bats next season, but that's a mild criticism for a player who is definitely a keeper. Gary Bennett was a liability whenever he played, but most every number two catcher is a liability. It just doesn't make sense in this era to spend much on a back-up two catcher, so Bennett is probably worth keeping unless a better option falls into the Nationals' lap.
It was a great season for Nick Johnson, too. He is an on-base machine, and he generates enough power to produce an OPS+ and EQA 40 points higher than the average first baseman. He isn't the most nimble fielder, but he's adequate. The only knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone; he hasn't been healthy for a full season in pretty close to forever. If he's going to reach his potential, he needs to give the Nationals more than 500 at bats.
Jose Vidro was one of the team's biggest disappointments. He was essentially AWOL for the entire season, both because he was injured for much of the year and was a shell of his former self on those rare occasions when he did play. Vidro cost the Nationals $7 million per, and for that they got league-average performance for less than half a season. Contracts like that can kill a team, and Vidro must ramp up his performance in a big way if the Nationals are going to win the East next year.
Jamey Carroll is one of those players fans love because they see themselves in them. That's good for a player's popularity, but doesn't reflect well on his skill level. The David Ecksteins of the world have enough talent to make it work, but Carroll is no David Eckstein. You'd like to get league-average performance out of your utility infielder, but Carroll won't give us that. On the other hand, he makes the league minimum so it's not like the Nationals are out of pocket a lot of money. It would be nice to have a better option off the bench, but only if the option is cheap.
Speaking of options, imagine that you're Rick Short. You've toiled in the minors for a decade, but you're hitting nearly .400 in AAA New Orleans so you're hoping the call from the majors comes soon. Instead, you spend nearly the whole season in the minors, even though the big club's hitters look like they're on serious doses of valium. Then, in September, with less than a month left in the season, your call comes and you finally get a chance to prove yourself. You hit the ball really well in The Show, demonstrating that you're comfortable at the plate and, because you take pitchers like John Smoltz to the opposite field, that you're a professional hitter. All you need now is more time. But then something cruel happens: with a little more than a week left in the season you go to the ground hard, separating your shoulder. The injury looks bad, and it is: you're out for six months and won't be back until March. The team wanted you to use the winter to work on your defensive skills so that you could play second base, but now you'll be idle until spring training. The chance you wanted so badly and for which you waited so long suddenly seems out of reach yet again.
The baseball gods can be cruel, and a guy like Rick Short is going to have to stare them down if he's ever to play in the majors. Yes, he had only thirteen September at bats, but it's not like that performance was out of character. It's become generally well accepted that players who hit well in AA or AAA will hit well in the majors, and we think that's true of Short, even though he is older than most minor leaguers. Short deserves a chance, and we hope the Nationals give him an oppotunity to make the big club. His injury won't help, but hopefully he'll be healthy in March. We got a lot of criticism for ignoring Short's defensive shortcomings, but the stats, meager as they are, don't suggest that he's a liability, and his bat would make up for a lot in the field. We're confident that Short could become an adequate fielder.
We think the Nationals should adopt a novel approach for next year: start Rick Short at second, Ryan Zimmerman at short, and a big bat at third acquired via free agency or trade. The Nationals' current options in the middle infield positions aren't great, and Short and Zimmerman would save them money they could spend on an impact third baseman. Yes, Vidro stands in the way, but we'd love to see him sent packing via trade even if the Nationals get only minor leaguers in return. He's on the downside of his career at a time when the Nationals have to spend a lot of money to get below average production. Anyway, it's just a thought.
What is there left to say? Guzman was one of the worst free agent signings since Curt Flood challenged the reserve clause, and it's very possible that the Nationals would have made the playoffs had they started a replacement-level shortstop. Instead, they started a guy who until September had lost whatever skill he once had at the plate. For five months he was one of the worst hitting shortstops in baseball history, and he looked every bit as bad as his stats suggested. To all those who think Guzman's September signals superior production to come, we say look at his career stats, because there's not a whole lot there to like. Guzman's defense was awful, too; his defensive stats mean that he needs Rick Short's bat to justify his playing time. He doesn't have it, and it will be virtually impossible for Guzman to justify his ridiculous contract. The Nats need to face reality and search for a replacement shortstop.
Another big hole that the Nationals need to fill. Castilla was great in April, average in August, and awful the rest of the season. He seemed to be going through the motions as the season wound down, and it's hard to see him as an integral part of this team going forward. Castilla was never as good as his stats suggested because he played in Coors Field, which is the most pronounced hitters' park in baseball history. RFK has exposed his limitations in an embarrassing way. Yes, he was injured, but Castilla is almost forty, so injuries will be a fact of life with him from here on out. The Nationals need big production from this position, and they're not going to get it from Castilla.
They could get it from Ryan Zimmerman, though. Zimmerman was brilliant after his September call-up, consistently driving the ball to all fields. Like Short, he was very comfortable at the plate, which bodes well for his future. We have to temper our expectations somewhat because he's only twenty one, but his future looks very, very bright. Zimmerman could be valuable at third, but he could be great at short. The stats suggest that Zimmerman would be a more than adequate defensively at short, and if his bat is as good as his September performance suggests he's potentially one of the best shortstops around.
With Zimmerman at short and an impact bat at third acquired through free agency or trade, the Nats could have superior production from the left side the of the infield. That's the kind of smart move a team building for the future needs to make.
Try this experiment: get Jose Guillen and Frank Robinson mad at each other and put them in the same room. Would you produce spontaneous combustion? You might, because both are fiercely competitive and downright volatile. They were perfect for each other, with Guillen channeling Robinson's take-no-prisoners personality on the field and in the clubhouse. It worked for most of the season because Guillen was one of the Nationals's few bright spots on offense, at least before September, when he was simply awful. When the Nationals needed his bat to mount a climb back to the top of the Wild Card Race, Guillen's September OPS was an anemic .427. Guillen wore down as the season progressed, both physically and mentally. He appears to have been the source of a lot of clubhouse friction, although that story still hasn't been told fully. We all hope Guillen will calm down, but that's not likely. He's a hyper-competitive guy with thin skin, and that's not a good combination. Still, the Nationals have to count Guillen as one of their everyday players in 2006.
Another huge hole for the Nationals in 2006. Wilkerson had two good months--April and June--but was otherwise terrible. The Nationals were counting on Wilkerson to supply significant production at the top of the order, but he didn't come close to meeting expectations. Everyone knows about the lack of power, but his OBP in July and August was .314 and .319, respectively. Some attribute his lack of production to injuries, and we hope that's true. The Nationals either need strong production from Wilkerson or a replacement if they're going to be a playoff team. With all of their other holes, it's going to be hard for the Nats to find a replacement for Wilkerson, so we'll probably have to put our faith in him for next year. The team should, however, be looking for a long-term replacement.
Jim Bowden wanted us to believe that Preston Wilson was the answer to all of our problems. What we got was the type of average performance you expect from a fourth outfielder. We trust that Wilson won't be back next year and that in the future the Nationals will invest their money in offensive production that isn't pumped up by Colorado's thin air.
After a hot start, this was a lost position for the Nationals. Church was awesome in May and June and awful thereafter. He appeared to lose both his confidence and his swing beginning in July and was never the contributor his early season performance suggested he could be. The question now is whether Church can duplicate his May and June performance over the course of a season. If he can, he'll be a starter. If he can't, he'll be back in the minors pretty quickly. Church is no doubt better than the season's last three months suggest, but we don't think he's going to be good enough to be a starter on a division winner. He more likely will be a fourth outfielder, which isn't so bad for a guy no one had heard of before last season.
Marlon Byrd is another fourth outfielder, at best. He was awful before being called back up to the majors in late-August, but he was a different hitter in September, driving the ball in a way he hadn't earlier in the season. Let's not make too much of this, though, because Byrd managed only one homer in 57 September at bats. He's never shown that he can be a consistently productive major league hitter, and we don't expect him to start now.
Brandon Watson was a complete washout. Jim Bowden overhyped him in the extreme, which was unfair in the extreme. Watson is hitting well in winter ball, but we don't hold out much hope for his next season.
The Nationals need serious help in left field. If they're going to challenge for the East title next year they need to acquire a big bat for this position.
Given that the Nationals were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, you won't be surprised to hear that we advocate big changes. We're not talking about tweaking the lineup or filling a hole, we're talking about rebuilding an offense that was embarrassingly bad. At a minimum the Nationals need a left fielder and either a shortstop or a third baseman, depending on where Ryan Zimmerman plays next year. We're assuming that Zimmerman will be the everyday third baseman, but, as you'll see, we propose that Zimmerman move to short and the Nationals acquire a big hitting third baseman. That would upgrade dramatically the team's production from the left side of the infield.
The team also needs either the old Vidro at second and the old Brad Wilkerson in center or new players at both positions. Vidro and Wilkerson vastly underperformed expectations last season, and while we all hope they'll return to form next year, there's more than a little bit of doubt in our minds about that. We'd like to see Rick Short at second and Jose Vidro in another uniform, but that isn't likely. We nevertheless can dream. In any event, second and center are longer term projects because Vidro and Wilkerson will be given a chance to prove themselves again.
The Nationals can't make all these changes in one off-season. They should, however, start the rebuilding process now by selectively acquiring young players who are likely to be consistently productive major leaguers for a long time to come. The worst thing they could do is repeat their Cristian Guzman mistake--overpay for average production from players past their prime. They need to be patient, and we, as fans, needed to patient, too.
This post is laden with numbers, some of which we haven't used before. Here's an explanation of the terms that are new to this blog. OPS+ comes from baseball-reference.com; it normalizes OPS for both the park and the league in which the player played, thereby providing a better method for comparing hitters. EQA, which comes from baseballprospectus.com, also attempts to create one number for comparison purposes; it measures total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense.
We've tried to analyze both offensive and defensive production because readers from time to time criticize us for not valuing a player's defense or recognizing that a player is such a defensive liability that he doesn't belong on the field. RF is an acronym for range factor. It comes from ESPN.com and is calculated as follows: (put outs + assists)/innings played. RATE 2 also comes from baseballprospectus.com; it calculates a fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A higher number is better for both RF and RATE 2.
| Catcher | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .314 | .388 | .702 | 100 | --- | .260 | 100 |
| Brian Schneider | 369 | .328 | .409 | .737 | 99 | 20.6 | .263 | 114 |
| Gary Bennett | 199 | .294 | .270 | .564 | 56 | -4.1 | .209 | 92 |
It was a great season for Schneider, who established himself both on the offensive and defensive sides. We'd like to see more at bats next season, but that's a mild criticism for a player who is definitely a keeper. Gary Bennett was a liability whenever he played, but most every number two catcher is a liability. It just doesn't make sense in this era to spend much on a back-up two catcher, so Bennett is probably worth keeping unless a better option falls into the Nationals' lap.
| 1B | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .361 | .483 | .844 | 100 | --- | .260 | 9.64 | 100 |
| Nick Johnson | 453 | .408 | .479 | .887 | 139 | 42.6 | .308 | 9.12 | 109 |
It was a great season for Nick Johnson, too. He is an on-base machine, and he generates enough power to produce an OPS+ and EQA 40 points higher than the average first baseman. He isn't the most nimble fielder, but he's adequate. The only knock on Johnson is that he's injury prone; he hasn't been healthy for a full season in pretty close to forever. If he's going to reach his potential, he needs to give the Nationals more than 500 at bats.
| 2B | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .338 | .414 | .752 | 100 | --- | .260 | 4.98 | 100 |
| Jose Vidro | 309 | .337 | .424 | .761 | 105 | 17.6 | .271 | 4.41 | 94 |
| Jamey Carroll | 303 | .321 | .282 | .603 | 70 | -2.5 | .230 | 5.07 | 101 |
| Rick Short | 15 | .471 | .933 | 1.404 | 268 | 5.2 | .422 | 4.50 | 99 |
Jose Vidro was one of the team's biggest disappointments. He was essentially AWOL for the entire season, both because he was injured for much of the year and was a shell of his former self on those rare occasions when he did play. Vidro cost the Nationals $7 million per, and for that they got league-average performance for less than half a season. Contracts like that can kill a team, and Vidro must ramp up his performance in a big way if the Nationals are going to win the East next year.
Jamey Carroll is one of those players fans love because they see themselves in them. That's good for a player's popularity, but doesn't reflect well on his skill level. The David Ecksteins of the world have enough talent to make it work, but Carroll is no David Eckstein. You'd like to get league-average performance out of your utility infielder, but Carroll won't give us that. On the other hand, he makes the league minimum so it's not like the Nationals are out of pocket a lot of money. It would be nice to have a better option off the bench, but only if the option is cheap.
Speaking of options, imagine that you're Rick Short. You've toiled in the minors for a decade, but you're hitting nearly .400 in AAA New Orleans so you're hoping the call from the majors comes soon. Instead, you spend nearly the whole season in the minors, even though the big club's hitters look like they're on serious doses of valium. Then, in September, with less than a month left in the season, your call comes and you finally get a chance to prove yourself. You hit the ball really well in The Show, demonstrating that you're comfortable at the plate and, because you take pitchers like John Smoltz to the opposite field, that you're a professional hitter. All you need now is more time. But then something cruel happens: with a little more than a week left in the season you go to the ground hard, separating your shoulder. The injury looks bad, and it is: you're out for six months and won't be back until March. The team wanted you to use the winter to work on your defensive skills so that you could play second base, but now you'll be idle until spring training. The chance you wanted so badly and for which you waited so long suddenly seems out of reach yet again.
The baseball gods can be cruel, and a guy like Rick Short is going to have to stare them down if he's ever to play in the majors. Yes, he had only thirteen September at bats, but it's not like that performance was out of character. It's become generally well accepted that players who hit well in AA or AAA will hit well in the majors, and we think that's true of Short, even though he is older than most minor leaguers. Short deserves a chance, and we hope the Nationals give him an oppotunity to make the big club. His injury won't help, but hopefully he'll be healthy in March. We got a lot of criticism for ignoring Short's defensive shortcomings, but the stats, meager as they are, don't suggest that he's a liability, and his bat would make up for a lot in the field. We're confident that Short could become an adequate fielder.
We think the Nationals should adopt a novel approach for next year: start Rick Short at second, Ryan Zimmerman at short, and a big bat at third acquired via free agency or trade. The Nationals' current options in the middle infield positions aren't great, and Short and Zimmerman would save them money they could spend on an impact third baseman. Yes, Vidro stands in the way, but we'd love to see him sent packing via trade even if the Nationals get only minor leaguers in return. He's on the downside of his career at a time when the Nationals have to spend a lot of money to get below average production. Anyway, it's just a thought.
| SS | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .313 | .378 | .691 | 100 | --- | .260 | 4.51 | 100 |
| Cristian Guzman | 456 | .256 | .313 | .569 | 55 | -9.7 | .204 | 4.22 | 92 |
What is there left to say? Guzman was one of the worst free agent signings since Curt Flood challenged the reserve clause, and it's very possible that the Nationals would have made the playoffs had they started a replacement-level shortstop. Instead, they started a guy who until September had lost whatever skill he once had at the plate. For five months he was one of the worst hitting shortstops in baseball history, and he looked every bit as bad as his stats suggested. To all those who think Guzman's September signals superior production to come, we say look at his career stats, because there's not a whole lot there to like. Guzman's defense was awful, too; his defensive stats mean that he needs Rick Short's bat to justify his playing time. He doesn't have it, and it will be virtually impossible for Guzman to justify his ridiculous contract. The Nats need to face reality and search for a replacement shortstop.
| 3B | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .344 | .442 | .786 | 100 | --- | .260 | 2.77 | 100 |
| Vinny Castilla | 494 | .319 | .403 | .722 | 94 | 14.2 | .257 | 2.70 | 106 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 58 | .419 | .569 | .988 | 165 | 10.1 | .340 | 2.59 | 124 |
Another big hole that the Nationals need to fill. Castilla was great in April, average in August, and awful the rest of the season. He seemed to be going through the motions as the season wound down, and it's hard to see him as an integral part of this team going forward. Castilla was never as good as his stats suggested because he played in Coors Field, which is the most pronounced hitters' park in baseball history. RFK has exposed his limitations in an embarrassing way. Yes, he was injured, but Castilla is almost forty, so injuries will be a fact of life with him from here on out. The Nationals need big production from this position, and they're not going to get it from Castilla.
They could get it from Ryan Zimmerman, though. Zimmerman was brilliant after his September call-up, consistently driving the ball to all fields. Like Short, he was very comfortable at the plate, which bodes well for his future. We have to temper our expectations somewhat because he's only twenty one, but his future looks very, very bright. Zimmerman could be valuable at third, but he could be great at short. The stats suggest that Zimmerman would be a more than adequate defensively at short, and if his bat is as good as his September performance suggests he's potentially one of the best shortstops around.
With Zimmerman at short and an impact bat at third acquired through free agency or trade, the Nats could have superior production from the left side the of the infield. That's the kind of smart move a team building for the future needs to make.
| RF | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .346 | .456 | .802 | 100 | --- | .260 | 2.10 | 100 |
| Jose Guillen | 551 | .337 | .479 | .816 | 118 | 35.5 | .284 | 2.34 | 100 |
Try this experiment: get Jose Guillen and Frank Robinson mad at each other and put them in the same room. Would you produce spontaneous combustion? You might, because both are fiercely competitive and downright volatile. They were perfect for each other, with Guillen channeling Robinson's take-no-prisoners personality on the field and in the clubhouse. It worked for most of the season because Guillen was one of the Nationals's few bright spots on offense, at least before September, when he was simply awful. When the Nationals needed his bat to mount a climb back to the top of the Wild Card Race, Guillen's September OPS was an anemic .427. Guillen wore down as the season progressed, both physically and mentally. He appears to have been the source of a lot of clubhouse friction, although that story still hasn't been told fully. We all hope Guillen will calm down, but that's not likely. He's a hyper-competitive guy with thin skin, and that's not a good combination. Still, the Nationals have to count Guillen as one of their everyday players in 2006.
| CF | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .340 | .437 | .777 | 100 | --- | .260 | 2.51 | 100 |
| Brad Wilkerson | 565 | .349 | .405 | .754 | 104 | 22.0 | .269 | 2.84 | 99 |
| Preston Wilson | 253 | .329 | .443 | .772 | 107 | 12.1 | .267 | 2.36 | 92 |
Another huge hole for the Nationals in 2006. Wilkerson had two good months--April and June--but was otherwise terrible. The Nationals were counting on Wilkerson to supply significant production at the top of the order, but he didn't come close to meeting expectations. Everyone knows about the lack of power, but his OBP in July and August was .314 and .319, respectively. Some attribute his lack of production to injuries, and we hope that's true. The Nationals either need strong production from Wilkerson or a replacement if they're going to be a playoff team. With all of their other holes, it's going to be hard for the Nats to find a replacement for Wilkerson, so we'll probably have to put our faith in him for next year. The team should, however, be looking for a long-term replacement.
Jim Bowden wanted us to believe that Preston Wilson was the answer to all of our problems. What we got was the type of average performance you expect from a fourth outfielder. We trust that Wilson won't be back next year and that in the future the Nationals will invest their money in offensive production that isn't pumped up by Colorado's thin air.
| LF | AB | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | VORP | EQA | RF | RATE 2 |
| League Avg. | --- | .348 | .457 | .805 | 100 | --- | .260 | 1.94 | 100 |
| Ryan Church | 268 | .352 | .466 | .818 | 120 | 19.5 | .287 | 2.12 | 103 |
| Marlon Byrd | 216 | .311 | .378 | .689 | 88 | 4.6 | .254 | 2.45 | 107 |
| Brandon Watson | 40 | .229 | .325 | .554 | 54 | -3.6 | .188 | 1.57 | 88 |
After a hot start, this was a lost position for the Nationals. Church was awesome in May and June and awful thereafter. He appeared to lose both his confidence and his swing beginning in July and was never the contributor his early season performance suggested he could be. The question now is whether Church can duplicate his May and June performance over the course of a season. If he can, he'll be a starter. If he can't, he'll be back in the minors pretty quickly. Church is no doubt better than the season's last three months suggest, but we don't think he's going to be good enough to be a starter on a division winner. He more likely will be a fourth outfielder, which isn't so bad for a guy no one had heard of before last season.
Marlon Byrd is another fourth outfielder, at best. He was awful before being called back up to the majors in late-August, but he was a different hitter in September, driving the ball in a way he hadn't earlier in the season. Let's not make too much of this, though, because Byrd managed only one homer in 57 September at bats. He's never shown that he can be a consistently productive major league hitter, and we don't expect him to start now.
Brandon Watson was a complete washout. Jim Bowden overhyped him in the extreme, which was unfair in the extreme. Watson is hitting well in winter ball, but we don't hold out much hope for his next season.
The Nationals need serious help in left field. If they're going to challenge for the East title next year they need to acquire a big bat for this position.
Saturday, October 22, 2005
Not unexpected, but still frustrating
The District is having some trouble convincing land owners on the new stadium site to sell their property. With the deadline for sale having passed, D.C. will now start eminent domain proceedings. We suspect that the land owners realize that the cards are stacked against them and what they're really hoping for is a better deal. By "a better deal" we mean a higher price or a more desireable relocation site. The District has a lot of power to take title to the land in only 90 days, but the City Council has imposed a cap of $165 million for land, infrastructure, and environmental cleanup, so the real struggle will be to buy the land for what the City considers to be a reasonable price. Hopefully this will all work itself out soon, because the last thing anyone wants are protracted legal proceedings that hold up construction of the stadium.
Friday, October 21, 2005
Call us crazy, but...
The Reds allegedly are still interested in trading Adam Dunn. Maybe we're dense, but shouldn't the Nationals be interested in acquiring a left fielder with 40 homers and a .927 OPS? Apparently not, because the Sporting News doesn't list the Nats as a team with which the Reds are talking.
An early Christmas present!
The Nationals have given the Arizona Diamondbacks permission to talk to Jim Bowden about the Diamondbacks' open General Manager position. To this we say, please, please, PLEASE take him off our hands, Arizona!!
Say it ain't so!
Cristian Guzman will continue to be the everyday shortstop.
That's Bill Ladson from his mailbag article on mlb.com. We guess that it may be true that Guzman will be back with the team next year, but, unless he is a Candidate for Comeback Player of the Year Award, the Nationals can't win the East with him at shortstop. Of course, given his putrid performance last year, Guzman need only be a replacement level shortstop to be a CPOY candidate.
That's Bill Ladson from his mailbag article on mlb.com. We guess that it may be true that Guzman will be back with the team next year, but, unless he is a Candidate for Comeback Player of the Year Award, the Nationals can't win the East with him at shortstop. Of course, given his putrid performance last year, Guzman need only be a replacement level shortstop to be a CPOY candidate.
Finally, what's good for the Orioles is good for the Nats
Leo Mazzone, the Atlanta Braves' legendary pitching coach, has agreed to become pitching coach of the Baltimore Orioles. This announcement shocked us because we thought Mazzone would retire with the Braves. Mazzone agreed to the move presumably because Sam Perlozzo, the Orioles' manager, is his best friend.
Although Mazzone's effect is probably overstated, this is very bad news for the Braves because he has helped Atlanta build one of the best pitching staffs in baseball over the last decade. And that, dear readers, is why for once what benefits the Orioles also benefits the Nationals. Now, if we could just get John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox out of Atlanta!
Although Mazzone's effect is probably overstated, this is very bad news for the Braves because he has helped Atlanta build one of the best pitching staffs in baseball over the last decade. And that, dear readers, is why for once what benefits the Orioles also benefits the Nationals. Now, if we could just get John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox out of Atlanta!
Maybe better management would help
The City and Nationals' management wonder why merchandise and concession sales were lower than expected in the team's first year in Washington, D.C. It doesn't take a genius to understand why.
First, the Nationals did everything they could to depress concession sales. The consessionaire regularly ran out of necessaries even before the game started!! Anyone who went to games could see exasperated fans looking in vain for napkins, mustard, straws, etc. soon after entering the stadium. My favorite example of this incompetence was when the concession stands on the lower level ran out of water early in a game on one of the summer's most oppressively hot and humid days. And the lines at the concession stands were ridiculously long, especially on the upper levels of the stadium. There were two reasons for this: many of the people manning the stands were either embarassingly slow or incompentent or both and there weren't enough outlets for the more popular items. For example, the line for specialty italian sausage dogs was always three times as long as the line for chicken fingers, but the concessionaire never opened additional stands to sell the sausage dogs.
Second, the Nationals did almost no marketing this year. This is, perhaps, not surprising given that the team didn't have a real owner, but the lack of a coherent marketing strategy depressed attendance and interest in the team and, thus, merchandise sales.
Third, it was impossible for most people to watch Nationals' games even when the team was in the thick of the playoff race. This, too, depressed interest in the team. Major League Baseball's decision to give away the team's broadcast rights to Peter Angelos, a person determined to destroy the team, guaranteed that the Nats wouldn't have the most aggressive media strategy. And Angelos' decision to breach his contract with Comcast prevented him from pursuing whatever strategy he had envisioned for Nationals broadcasts. The result was that the only way to watch many games was to buy Direct TV. If you're like us, you've bought cable and high-speed internet access from Comcast and you're not likely to switch to the dish, which means you weren't able to watch most of the team's games down the stretch.
Fourth, the team decided to sell disproportionate numbers of prime seats to politicians, media celebrities, and corporations. The team candidly admitted this before the season started when lots of fans complained about the location of their seats. It's one thing to sell luxury boxes to the star set, but it's quite another to give them prime seats because they're more likely than truly interested fans to be no shows. The Nationals had higher percentages of no shows than most any other team, and this was part of the reason why.
The common thread running through all of these problems is bad management, which will plague the team until it gets a real owner. A new owner needs to install new management, and new management needs to adopt aggressive and coherent media and marketing strategies. That's the only way the team will start to generate additional concession and merchandise revenue. It's too bad that the Nationals couldn't capitalize on the enthusiasm generated by the relocation of the team to Washington, but the team can start to right that wrong this offseason--when it gets a real owner.
First, the Nationals did everything they could to depress concession sales. The consessionaire regularly ran out of necessaries even before the game started!! Anyone who went to games could see exasperated fans looking in vain for napkins, mustard, straws, etc. soon after entering the stadium. My favorite example of this incompetence was when the concession stands on the lower level ran out of water early in a game on one of the summer's most oppressively hot and humid days. And the lines at the concession stands were ridiculously long, especially on the upper levels of the stadium. There were two reasons for this: many of the people manning the stands were either embarassingly slow or incompentent or both and there weren't enough outlets for the more popular items. For example, the line for specialty italian sausage dogs was always three times as long as the line for chicken fingers, but the concessionaire never opened additional stands to sell the sausage dogs.
Second, the Nationals did almost no marketing this year. This is, perhaps, not surprising given that the team didn't have a real owner, but the lack of a coherent marketing strategy depressed attendance and interest in the team and, thus, merchandise sales.
Third, it was impossible for most people to watch Nationals' games even when the team was in the thick of the playoff race. This, too, depressed interest in the team. Major League Baseball's decision to give away the team's broadcast rights to Peter Angelos, a person determined to destroy the team, guaranteed that the Nats wouldn't have the most aggressive media strategy. And Angelos' decision to breach his contract with Comcast prevented him from pursuing whatever strategy he had envisioned for Nationals broadcasts. The result was that the only way to watch many games was to buy Direct TV. If you're like us, you've bought cable and high-speed internet access from Comcast and you're not likely to switch to the dish, which means you weren't able to watch most of the team's games down the stretch.
Fourth, the team decided to sell disproportionate numbers of prime seats to politicians, media celebrities, and corporations. The team candidly admitted this before the season started when lots of fans complained about the location of their seats. It's one thing to sell luxury boxes to the star set, but it's quite another to give them prime seats because they're more likely than truly interested fans to be no shows. The Nationals had higher percentages of no shows than most any other team, and this was part of the reason why.
The common thread running through all of these problems is bad management, which will plague the team until it gets a real owner. A new owner needs to install new management, and new management needs to adopt aggressive and coherent media and marketing strategies. That's the only way the team will start to generate additional concession and merchandise revenue. It's too bad that the Nationals couldn't capitalize on the enthusiasm generated by the relocation of the team to Washington, but the team can start to right that wrong this offseason--when it gets a real owner.
Thursday, October 20, 2005
Starting pitching
Both teams in the World Series--Chicago and Houston--have three potentially dominant starting pitchers. Chicago has Contreras, Buehrle, and Garland, and Houston has Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt. This isn't surprising given that most teams that make it to the World Series have great starting pitching.
What does this mean for the Nationals? We have one starting pitcher--John Patterson--who was dominant last year, but who now must prove that he can be this good year after year. We have another pitcher--Esteban Loaiza--who outperformed all expectations, but who has been inconsistent over time and is not likely to be a very good starting pitcher (at least on a consistent basis) outside of RFK. A third starter--Livan Hernandez--was very good in the first half, but isn't a dominant pitcher mostly because he can't throw a fastball over 85 mph and has thrown so many innings that his arm is likely to fall off any day now.
Patterson would slot very well as a #2 starter, and Loaiza or Hernandez would be good #3 starters and very good #4 starters. What the Nationals lack is a dominant starter who could catapult the 1-3 slots into the upper echelon of rotations.
Yes, I know, the Nationals pitching stats last year were great, but a lot of that was due to the run depressing effects of RFK. And late in the season the Nationals' rotation wasn't good enough to dominate games when we really needed it. If we're trying to build a team that can compete effectively in the playoffs, we need better starting pitching.
So, we need a dominant starter. Is there anyone like that available? Yes--A.J. Burnett. There is a lot of skepticism among Nats fans about Burnett, but he's the best pitcher available, and he has electric stuff. He had a falling out in Florida, but so did most everyone else. If we want to upgrade our starting rotation, going after Burnett could fit the bill.
What does this mean for the Nationals? We have one starting pitcher--John Patterson--who was dominant last year, but who now must prove that he can be this good year after year. We have another pitcher--Esteban Loaiza--who outperformed all expectations, but who has been inconsistent over time and is not likely to be a very good starting pitcher (at least on a consistent basis) outside of RFK. A third starter--Livan Hernandez--was very good in the first half, but isn't a dominant pitcher mostly because he can't throw a fastball over 85 mph and has thrown so many innings that his arm is likely to fall off any day now.
Patterson would slot very well as a #2 starter, and Loaiza or Hernandez would be good #3 starters and very good #4 starters. What the Nationals lack is a dominant starter who could catapult the 1-3 slots into the upper echelon of rotations.
Yes, I know, the Nationals pitching stats last year were great, but a lot of that was due to the run depressing effects of RFK. And late in the season the Nationals' rotation wasn't good enough to dominate games when we really needed it. If we're trying to build a team that can compete effectively in the playoffs, we need better starting pitching.
So, we need a dominant starter. Is there anyone like that available? Yes--A.J. Burnett. There is a lot of skepticism among Nats fans about Burnett, but he's the best pitcher available, and he has electric stuff. He had a falling out in Florida, but so did most everyone else. If we want to upgrade our starting rotation, going after Burnett could fit the bill.
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
Posting problems
The Chinese government appears not to like blogs. When I was in Beijing I couldn't access our site (or any blogspot.com site for that matter) and later learned that the government had blocked access to all blogspot.com sites. Apparently more than a few blogs take positions that the Chinese government considers to be, shall we say, unwise. So, I couldn't post at all in China.
The Japanese government takes a laissez faire approach to blogs, but Blogger wasn't so kind. I kept getting error messages every time I tried to post, and those errors were resolved only today.
This is a long way of apologizing for not posting for two weeks. Of course, our readers were probably ecstatic at not having to read the normal drivel spewing from our humble site. But, not to worry, there's more drivel coming and a lot more dismay aimed at Nationals' management and Major League Baseball!
The Japanese government takes a laissez faire approach to blogs, but Blogger wasn't so kind. I kept getting error messages every time I tried to post, and those errors were resolved only today.
This is a long way of apologizing for not posting for two weeks. Of course, our readers were probably ecstatic at not having to read the normal drivel spewing from our humble site. But, not to worry, there's more drivel coming and a lot more dismay aimed at Nationals' management and Major League Baseball!
Following baseball is tough in Asia
When you're across the international dateline and 12 hours ahead of eastern standard time, it's hard to follow Major League Baseball. The internet was about the only way I could keep track of the goings on, which made trying to follow the playoffs endlessly frustrating.
Having said all of that, I have an observation. We hear a lot about how baseball is trying to build popularity for the game in Asia. My trip to Beijing and Tokyo suggests that baseball has a long way to go.
No one in Beijing seemed to care about baseball. No one was talking about the playoffs, and even the ESPN channel wasn't covering every game.
Baseball is more popular in Tokyo, but all anyone seemed to care about was Hideki Matsui. He is enormously popular in Japan, but his popularity doesn't seem to have translated to MLB generally. The Yankees appear to be somewhat popular, but MLB doesn't seem to have a large fan base in Japan.
Having said all of that, I have an observation. We hear a lot about how baseball is trying to build popularity for the game in Asia. My trip to Beijing and Tokyo suggests that baseball has a long way to go.
No one in Beijing seemed to care about baseball. No one was talking about the playoffs, and even the ESPN channel wasn't covering every game.
Baseball is more popular in Tokyo, but all anyone seemed to care about was Hideki Matsui. He is enormously popular in Japan, but his popularity doesn't seem to have translated to MLB generally. The Yankees appear to be somewhat popular, but MLB doesn't seem to have a large fan base in Japan.
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
Man, that's a long flight!
I'm off to Asia this morning. Given that the flight is something like four days long, I won't be posting today, which means that our loyal readers will have a respite of rationality. I'm hoping that the Nationals will acquire Albert Pujols while I'm at 35,000 feet. As you can see, I have a bit of an expectations problem.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
You're kidding, right?
Both the Post and the Times report that the Nationals may try to acquire Philadelphia closer Billy Wagner.
Let's take a look at the Nationals' offseason checklist: a shortstop, a third baseman, a left fielder, perhaps a center fielder, offensive bench strength, starter pitching, and middle relievers.
Huh, we don't see anything there about needing a closer. Why is that? Well, maybe it's because THE NATIONALS ALREADY HAVE A CLOSER. What possible justification is there for investing large sums of money in another one? I mean, it's not like we don't have significant other needs that will require gobs of money, right?
Let's take a look at the Nationals' offseason checklist: a shortstop, a third baseman, a left fielder, perhaps a center fielder, offensive bench strength, starter pitching, and middle relievers.
Huh, we don't see anything there about needing a closer. Why is that? Well, maybe it's because THE NATIONALS ALREADY HAVE A CLOSER. What possible justification is there for investing large sums of money in another one? I mean, it's not like we don't have significant other needs that will require gobs of money, right?
Wait a minute. I thought you said...
According to today's Post, the Nationals are considering acquiring Juan Pierre as an outfielder because, the team says, management wants to improve the team's on base percentage and speed on the basepaths. Upon hearing this, one naturally would assume that Pierre has a high OBP, right?
Here are Pierre's 2005 stats: .271/.322/.349. In 650 at bats, he had only 41 walks. All three of the Nationals' outfielders with the highest number of at bats (with the Nationals) had higher on base percentages than Pierre--Wilkerson, .352; Guillen, .337; Church, .354--and all three had substantially higher slugging percentages--Wilkerson, .405; Guillen, .475; Church, .457.
So, will acquiring Pierre improve the Nationals' OBP?
We report, you decide.
On the other hand, I don't know what we're yelling about. Pierre, after all, does have a rhythmic name: Juan D'Vaughn Pierre.
Here are Pierre's 2005 stats: .271/.322/.349. In 650 at bats, he had only 41 walks. All three of the Nationals' outfielders with the highest number of at bats (with the Nationals) had higher on base percentages than Pierre--Wilkerson, .352; Guillen, .337; Church, .354--and all three had substantially higher slugging percentages--Wilkerson, .405; Guillen, .475; Church, .457.
So, will acquiring Pierre improve the Nationals' OBP?
We report, you decide.
On the other hand, I don't know what we're yelling about. Pierre, after all, does have a rhythmic name: Juan D'Vaughn Pierre.
Monday, October 03, 2005
Huh
Home runs were down again this year in year-on-year stats. This drop can't be attributed solely to the declining use of steroids, but it's hard to imagine that at least some of the increase in power in the late-90s was caused by increased steroid usage among major league players.
Boswell
We are unabashed fans of Tom Boswell, and his column today catches perfectly the emotion surrounding yesterday's final game of the season.
But we really have to take issue with a couple of points in the column. First, Boswell says:
... in retrospect, not a single personnel move seems to have sacrificed the future.
There's a reason for that. As we said before, virtually all of the moves Jim Bowden made were tinkering at the margins, especially the moves he made after the season started. Whether or not you blame Bowden for not doing more to improve the team, his failure to make more significant moves can't be a justification for praising him.
Second, Boswell says:
If any new owner removes Robinson and Bowden, the Nationals risk losing this culture of commitment.
We don't think there's any basis for asserting that the Nationals will fall apart without Robinson and Bowden. This team and this organization is stronger than that, and the Nationals shouldn't be timid in trying to find better talent to manage this organization going forward.
But we really have to take issue with a couple of points in the column. First, Boswell says:
... in retrospect, not a single personnel move seems to have sacrificed the future.
There's a reason for that. As we said before, virtually all of the moves Jim Bowden made were tinkering at the margins, especially the moves he made after the season started. Whether or not you blame Bowden for not doing more to improve the team, his failure to make more significant moves can't be a justification for praising him.
Second, Boswell says:
If any new owner removes Robinson and Bowden, the Nationals risk losing this culture of commitment.
We don't think there's any basis for asserting that the Nationals will fall apart without Robinson and Bowden. This team and this organization is stronger than that, and the Nationals shouldn't be timid in trying to find better talent to manage this organization going forward.
A wonderful season ends
The season came to an end yesterday, with everyone--players, fans, announcers, writers--forgetting the disappointment of the second half and instead focusing on what made this season so special: the return of baseball to Washington after an absence of 34 years. The Nationals lost, but it hardly mattered because the only thing on everyone's mind was the joy of baseball. At the end of the game the fans cheered like the team had made the playoffs, and the players basked in the applause and the intense emotion.
Last year this team was playing in front of a few hundred in Montreal. This year it closed the season in front of 36,000 appreciative fans and drew an amazing 2.7 million fans throughout the year. Anyone who complained that the D.C. area couldn't or wouldn't support a baseball team can now shut up because it is clear that this is one of the best venues for baseball in the major leagues. The only thing standing in the way of sustained success is Major League Baseball, and hopefully they will get out of the way in the next few weeks.
We've complained loudly about management this year, and we'll complain a lot about them in the future unless some changes are made. But none of that seemed particularly important yesterday. As the fans and players exchanged applause, the only thing that mattered was that baseball is back in D.C.
Last year this team was playing in front of a few hundred in Montreal. This year it closed the season in front of 36,000 appreciative fans and drew an amazing 2.7 million fans throughout the year. Anyone who complained that the D.C. area couldn't or wouldn't support a baseball team can now shut up because it is clear that this is one of the best venues for baseball in the major leagues. The only thing standing in the way of sustained success is Major League Baseball, and hopefully they will get out of the way in the next few weeks.
We've complained loudly about management this year, and we'll complain a lot about them in the future unless some changes are made. But none of that seemed particularly important yesterday. As the fans and players exchanged applause, the only thing that mattered was that baseball is back in D.C.
Saturday, October 01, 2005
Was this really necessary?
We're all for showing commitment, but Frank Robinson's decision last night to pitch Livan Hernandez and let him throw 130 pitches doesn't make much sense to us. Hernandez has a bum knee that will require off-season surgery. If the Nationals were in the Wild Card Race we would understand pitching him this late in the season, but the Nats are out of the race, and there is no reason to put any additional pressure or stress on Livan's knee at this point. And if Robinson was going to start Hernandez, there was absolutely no justification for letting him throw 130 pitches, which is about as high a pitch count as you normally see any time during the season.
At this point in the season the primary goal should be to position the team for next year. Now is the time to test young players and give them experience. Now is not the time to drive your veterans to possible injury.
At this point in the season the primary goal should be to position the team for next year. Now is the time to test young players and give them experience. Now is not the time to drive your veterans to possible injury.
Goin' to the chapel...
Saying he was "deeply offended by what happened Ryan Church and Jon Moeller," the Baseball Chapel Chaplain who nodded when Church asked whether Jews were doomed, Bud Selig is reviewing Major League Baseball's cooperation with Baseball Chapel. Selig presumably wants to repair some of the public relations damage done by Church's statements to the media in which he recounted his conversation with Moeller. He probably also wants to protect young players who suddenly find themselves on the receiving end of a theological question from a reporter.
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