On the same day that the Nationals extended his contract through April, Jim Bowden made two moves yesterday. He signed Damian Jackson, a 31-year old utility infielder, to a one-year, $700,000 deal. Bowden also signed second baseman Bernie Castro, who debuted with the Baltimore Orioles last season. Bowden believes that these two deals will improve the Nats' bench and help remedy the Nats' lack of speed.
These moves are unlikey to have any significant impact on the Nationals going forward. We start with the fact that Damian Jackson was outrighted by the San Diego Padres. Next consider that his lifetime OPS is .680, and his OPS last year was .677. The league-average OPS for second basemen last year was .752. (We doubt Jackson will play much shortstop because his fielding stats at the position are not very good.) But his speed will help us, right? Only if he gets on base. Jackson's lifetime OBP is .325, and over the last five years (excluding 2004, when he played in only 21 games) it's been .335, .294, .320, and .316. The league-average OBP for second basemen last year was .338.
In other words, with Jackson we're getting below-average performance for not a whole lot of money. It could be worse, though; we could have acquired below-average performance for $16 million a la Cristian Guzman. Bowden tried that last year, so maybe he's learning.
As for Bernie Castro, much may depend on whether you think he's 24 or 26. At 24, his minor league stats could show some promise, given that he would be three years away from his prime. Last year, his minor league OPS was .746, and he stole 41 bases. On the other hand, if he's 26, as MLB.com says, he's basically at his prime and isn't likely to get much better, meaning that his .710 OPS in 80 at bats with the Orioles last year is about as good as it's going to get.
We think these deals are minor events, which, at best, will marginally improve the Nats' bench next year. We have some doubt whether there will be any improvement, but we don't blame Jim Bowden for that.
The salient point is that there isn't a whole lot Bowden can do at this point until the Nationals get an owner. Only then will he (or another GM) be able to commit the Nationals to a defined strategic course. In the meantime, Bowden will continue to tinker at the margins of this team, and he'll continue to overhype the castoffs he acquires from other teams. Some of those moves will be defensible moves, and, we suspect, some will not. But let's not make of this something more than it is.
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1 comment:
You are right, it is exact
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