Monday, April 30, 2007

An outbreak of pitching

The Nationals got something on Saturday and Sunday that they're not exactly used to--great starting pitching performances. The first--and most improbable--was the six shutout innings Jerome Williams posted on Saturday. Williams gave up only one hit, but was still in trouble from time to time because he walked five while striking out only one. We've said before that Williams gives up far too many baserunners to be successful consistently, but if he's going to give up only one hit every six innings he live with a proclivity to walk a hitter every inning. Of course, I may also have won the lottery on Saturday night. I'll find out later today and let you know how that turned out.

Williams followed his good performance by going on the DL. Talk about a let down. We have to teach him not to step on his applause lines.

Saturday's problem was the inability of the Nats' bullpen to hold a lead and then keep the game close. There was also the problem of a lack of hitting, but that's so chronic with this team that it's no longer a problem--it's a state of being. Jesus Colome gave up a run in the sixth, and Chad Cordero blew his third save by giving up a run in the ninth.

A quick word about Colome. Most people think he's pitched well, but to us he's a ticking time bomb. He's allowing over 1.5 runners per inning, meaning that it's just a matter of time before he gives up a slew of runs.

A longer word about Cordero. Something is wrong. Cordero has already blown three saves and isn't fooling much of anyone. He doesn't have the heat to dominate hitters, so he needs control of a few pitches to get hitters out. How is that going so far? Not well. His ERA is over 5, and he's allowing more than two runners per inning. Opposing hitters have Hall-of-Fame numbers against him so far this year: .352/.429/.611. This isn't so much about this year, because a great closer is important only if you enter a lot of ninth innings with a lead, and no one expects the Nats to do that. The salient point is that the Nationals need Cordero to improve so that they have something to trade for young prospects to a team in a pennant race. Get well soon, Chad.

Sunday's game involved another good pitching performance, this time by Jason Bergmann. Bergmann gave up one run, two hits, three walks, and struck out six over seven innings. It was a very good outing for a pitcher who has some promise. His only blemish was a home run by Carlos Beltran, but there's no shame in getting beat once a game by one of the game's best hitters. Bergmann is 0-2, but he has been lights out so far. His ERA is 2.79 and he's allowing just over one runner per inning. He's dominating hitters so far--.158/.274/.277--and his eight strikeouts per nine innings suggest that the domination isn't likely to end soon. The only note of caution is that he walks too many hitters--almost five per nine innings. Like most Nats pitchers, he needs to establish better control, but he's only 25, so there's every reason to believe he can do that.

Sunday's blight was the lack of hitting for the Nats. Are you catching the pattern here? They managed only three hits off starter John Maine--who has been awesome this year--and while they mustered a rally in the eighth, Ryan Church grounded out to end it. That was the game because the Nats--like all other teams--are overmatched against Billy Wagner and his high-nineties heat.

So, 0-2 for the weekend, but there was something on which to base some hope for the future. We'll see whether Williams can duplicate his success and start to realize some of his promise--we aren't holding our breath--and whether Bergmann can continue his march of progress toward being a quality major league starting pitcher--we're much more optimistic about that.

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