Shawn Hill, productive starter?

Shawn Hill pitched a nice game yesterday. Here is his pitching line:

Inn	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST
8	2	2	1	5	0	97-60

That's a good game, but what's the likelihood that Hill will continue to pitch like that?

Not great. Hill relies on a sinker and doesn't throw much in the way of heat. He can be effective occasionally, but asking someone with his repetoire to be consistently effective over a large number of innings is like asking Shaq to hit 90% of his free throws--it ain't going to happen.

Hill isn't worthless, though. He had a postive VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) last year, and his equivalent ERA (ERA converted to a neutral park and controlled for the quality of the pitcher's team's defense) last year was 4.26. Given that the major league ideal EqERA was 4.50, that's better than average.

The key to using Hill is not to ask too much of him. He can be effective, but asking him to be a front-of-the-rotation starter is unreasonable. Unfortunately, the Nats just don't have the number of quality starting pitchers they need to plant Hill in the back of the rotation. Until they do, the demands on Hill may be just enough to turn what could be a useful player into a below-average pitcher.