The Nationals won last night behind strong performances by a new starting pitcher--Hector Carrasco--and two new infielders--Ryan Zimmerman and Rick Short.
We'll spare you a recap of the game and focus on what to do with these three players. Carrasco's performance as a starter raises an interesting question: can he be a back-of-the-rotation guy next year? The Nationals need a pitcher like that, and they may have found him in their bullpen. At a minimum the Nats should position him for the role in spring training.
What about Zimmerman and Short? It's clear that Zim will get a chance to start for the big club next spring. Short is another story. Oleanders and Morning Glories points out that Short is a guy without a position because Jose Vidro will play second and either Zim or Vinny Castilla will play third next year.
That is pretty clearly the direction in which this is headed, but we'll propose another option. How about putting Zim at short, Short at second, a free agent at third, and trading Jose Vidro? Sound crazy? Well, consider that Jose Vidro is 31, will be making something like $7 million next year, and has been trending downward the last four years in both OPS (.868, .867, .821, .762) and games played (152, 144, 110, 82).
Perhaps this is the time to get some value for Vidro and put in his place a low-cost option who arguably might give us similar production. We wouldn't need Short to hit .380 like he did in AAA this year. All we would need is .350 OBP, .450 SLG, and .800 OPS. Could Short do it? We can't expect him to continue his current production (.533 OBP, 1.077 SLG, 1.610 OPS), but it's not out of the question that he could come close to replicating Vidro's numbers. As we said yesterday, players who hit well in AAA tend to do pretty well in The Show. And, if he Short can come close to being an adequate replacement for Vidro, we'll save almost $7 million that we could apply to a third baseman next year we get in a trade or free agency.
There are a lot of questions that would have to be answered before the Nationals tried something like this, but they should be thinking of creative options like this. If the Nationals are to be a long-term success, they have to be thinking first of value, and Vidro's value isn't going up.
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8 comments:
Your downward trend and expensive contract for Vidro is the exact reason no one will take him off our hands. Plus, we'd be buying high and selling low - the opposite of what we'd like to do. While it'd be nice to get his contract off the books, we may have to hope he returns to the hitting form that gives us above average performance out of the 2B spot.
I'd love to see Carroll and Short as our middle IF / corner IF guys with Short being the first PH option. Yes, that means that rallying leader Baerga would need to become a coach or something...
That might be right. On the other hand, another team might be willing to take the risk and hope Vidro turns it around. And if the Nats ask for either draft picks or minor leaguers a deal might be possible.
It's an interesting point to consider the buying high/selling low problem. The Expos overpaid for Vidro to begin with, meaning that the Nationals will never get back in a trade what they paid for Vidro. You'd think teams would learn from those mistakes, but the Guzman fiasco shows this organization hasn't.
I think the Nationals should trade Vidro next summer, after he's had a chance to show he can come back from these injuries.
Zim at 3b, Carroll at SS and Short at 2b could be a very good combination for a long time... the makings of a great IF if Nick Johnson can stay healthy.
Actually, the combination suggested by the original post and some of the responses would be a disaster.
Frankly, over the back half of the season, Guzman has produced at around his career average. And check it out - he's got the best slugging percentage on this team for the month of September. Defensively, despite a few ill timed errors, he still makes plays nobody else on this team can make.
So let's see: We're proposing a newcomer at third (Zimmerman)...who by all accounts is a superior major league defensive third baseman now...to move to shortstop. (Please, spare me the Cal Ripken parallels. Let the kid learn about being a major leaguer first. He had two errors at short in his first game there. The last thing he needs, having been in college just months ago, is a potential drop in confidence. The pressure on this kid is already too silly to apply more.)
We're proposing a 32 year old career minor leaguer (Short) with a shakey glove - come on folks, any decent second baseman wouldn't be diving for the balls that Short did - to replace a career 300 hitter - who is younger than the proposed replacement.
Wow.
I'd call these proposals really quite kneejerk. If you haven't learned by watching the roller coaster all season, baseball is a marathon.
I think a manager that respects his players, doesn't kill the pitching staff and retaliates every once in a while when his hitters get plunked, combined with a hitting coach who makes some kind of an effort to improve his bats rather than simply criticizing, would go much further in improving this team.
This year's team relied on its defense along with the pitching to win. To blow that up because of a half year slump smacks of impatience.
The guys who should go are Wilkerson, Wilson, Spivey - too many strikeouts (i.e. nonproductive outs) for the production returned. If the team could get something for Guillen, I'd consider that as well. This guy was filled with all kind of bluster that he just couldn't back up at all. Just when this team needed him most, he disappeared.
Mr. Short should look to the American League for DH and pinch hitting duties.
(I know Wilkerson is one of our more reliable fielders and is versatile. But he's playing at positions that are expected to produce. Though he hasn't had a disastrous year and could bounce back...he's a lifer in the strikeout arena.)
We like knee jerk. I mean, the alternative is just so hard. You have to think and analyze the alternatives and then reason through the best choice. Why go through all of that when you can just lurch toward a conclusion? And so what if you're conclusion is half-baked? So many others are half-baked anyway, right?
OK, fine, we'll try to justify some of our conclusions.
Zimmerman. He's played short a bit in the minors and the majors. Yes, he's still on the upslope of the learning curve, but we're pretty confident he can play the position eventually. We were against forcing him to learn the position during a playoff race, but we're past that point now.
Short. He may not be best fielding second baseman, but he can be adequate. I don't think that we can take his performance in a few games and write him off.
And Zim and Short could be an offensive upgrade at a fraction of the cost of the incumbents. It's OK to talk about defense, but not to the exclusion of the offensive element of the equation. A better bat is worth a lot, even if it means sacrificing defense a bit. To put it another way, Guzman and Vidro may be good defensive players (that hasn't been true with Guzman, though, so this is a thought experiment), but that's not saying much when Vidro plays in half the games, Guzman hits .212, and they get paid a combined $11.2 million.
We appreciate that Guzman has had a good September, but he was absolutely horrid for the first five months of the season. The man has been an absolute joke this year, and even if he returns to his historical performance he isn't worth $4.2 million per.
Think about this: a combination of Guzman and Vidro costs $11.2 million. Wouldn't you rather have most of that money to spend on other players, like maybe a #1 starter, a third baseman, or an outfielder? We would. Yes, it will be hard to trade Guzman and Vidro for a lot, and it may be impossible to trade Guzman at all, but we'd try and try hard. As Anonymous points out, we may have to wait until next season to trade Vidro. But even if we couldn't trade them we'd position Zimmerman and Short for starting eventually at short and second. If they work out, that would be a nice and cheap combo over the next few years.
As for Wilkerson, we agree that he has performed way below expectations. If we could get someone good for him, we'd trade him.
I return to the age of Short and Vidro. Vidro is actually a younger man. I read in the Post that prior to his injury, the Nats had plans to send Short to winter ball to help teach him how to play defense. At age 32. If he hasn't learned or assimilated by now, it's a bit late, don't you think? Realistically? Again, I love the bat...the little we've seen of it.
(By the way...I'm not sure how you conclude the Nationals overpaid for Vidro. He came up through the organizatoin and has had fine years. He took less than he could have on the open market to stay with his original team. He's still a relatively young guy. Are you speaking purely about paying for recent performance?)
Based on this year's performance, I'm never gonna convince you or anyone else that Guzman can be a productive player for this team so we'll just have to agree to disagree.
From what we've seen so far - and it's been very little as far as time, Zimmerman appears to be the real deal. Along with Short - now done - Zimmerman's been the only spark at the stadium this week. I'd prefer he remain at third, given his youth.
Caroll? He's a utility guy. Period.
Hey...Vinnie used to be a shortstop. Hmmm...
Short isn't a youngster, but he's probably got a few good years in him, and his production may be near Vidro's at a fraction of the cost.
We conclude that Vidro is overpaid because his production at the time didn't justify the long-term contract at the time the Nats signed it. That was pretty much the conclusion of a lot of observers at the time. Don't get us wrong--Vidro isn't bad now and he wasn't bad then, he's just wasn't a superstar, and the Nats treated him like a superstar. We're now seeing that there are other, cheaper players who can do essentially the same thing for the Nats.
If Short doesn't have "pinch-hitter" written all over him, then I don't know what he's good for. I do hope that he heals up and plays some good winter ball and becomes the defensive player that they're looking for.
Vidro will be back and healthier, too.
Don't forget about Termel Sledge - if he has healed and has a good spring training then he's back in LF.
I'd hate to see Vinny go. He's a leader. If his knee is better, he's still a great 3B. Don't rush him out of here so soon.
If Guzman has truly found his swing, then he still deserves to be SS. His fielding was sound, even when his swing was nowhere to be found.
The Nats (under new ownership with a presumable larger budget) need to spend money on pitching. They have to find a threatening starting lefty, another top starter, and at least one more really good middle reliever.
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