On July 30, 1968, Ron Hansen, the Senators' shortstop, made the first unassisted triple play in Major League Baseball in 41 years. The Senators were playing in Cleveland against the Indians. With no outs and men on first and second in the bottom of the first, Hansen caught a line drive hit by Joe Azcue. Hansen then stepped on second to double up Dave Nelson and tagged out Russ Snyder who was approaching second from first base. Frank Howard hit his 30th home run of the season, but Sam McDowell shut down the Senators, who lost 10-1.
By the way, there were only 12 unassisted triple plays in Major League Baseball in the 20th century.
Sunday, July 31, 2005
Groundhog Day
The Nationals' starting pitcher pitched well, but the team's lack of offense and spotty defense gave the opponent the win in a close game. Sound familiar? It is the pattern to nearly all Washington Nationals games in July, including yesterday.
John Patterson pitched another good game, giving up two runs and five hits in six innings. Patterson struck out six and walked three. The two runs were charged to Patterson, but you can make a very good argument that one of them shouldn't have been. In the third inning, Paul Lo Duca doubled. After Juan Encarnacion struck out, Patterson threw a curve that got away from Brian Schneider. Lo Duca broke for third and Schneider threw the ball into left field. This was a frustrating series of miscues, but it was probably beside the point because Mike Lowell then doubled, which would have scored Lo Duca from second.
In the sixth with one out and men on first and third, Patterson threw another curve that Schneider couldn't handle. This one went all the way to the backstop, and Lo Duca scored easily from third. Both this pitch and the pitch that got away from Schneider in the third were ruled wild pitches, but they appeared to us to be balls Schneider should have handled.
It didn't matter anyway, because the Nationals bullpen gave up a run in the seventh, and it was clear that any run the Marlins scored was one more than the Nationals would score. The Nationals made A.J. Burnett look like Walter Johnson yesterday, and never mounted a serious offensive challenge. In the first, Burnett walked Brad Wilkerson and hit Jamey Carroll, but then mowed down Nick Johnson, Vinny Castilla, and Ryan Church. The Nationals got only four hits on the day and looked seriously overmatched.
The Nationals are now five games behind the Braves and may be out of that race. They are two games behind the Astros for the wild card and are dangerously close to falling too far behind in that race. July has been the Nationals' last month, and with it unlikely that they'll make a significant deal before the trade deadline, the team looks like it's fading fast back to .500.
John Patterson pitched another good game, giving up two runs and five hits in six innings. Patterson struck out six and walked three. The two runs were charged to Patterson, but you can make a very good argument that one of them shouldn't have been. In the third inning, Paul Lo Duca doubled. After Juan Encarnacion struck out, Patterson threw a curve that got away from Brian Schneider. Lo Duca broke for third and Schneider threw the ball into left field. This was a frustrating series of miscues, but it was probably beside the point because Mike Lowell then doubled, which would have scored Lo Duca from second.
In the sixth with one out and men on first and third, Patterson threw another curve that Schneider couldn't handle. This one went all the way to the backstop, and Lo Duca scored easily from third. Both this pitch and the pitch that got away from Schneider in the third were ruled wild pitches, but they appeared to us to be balls Schneider should have handled.
It didn't matter anyway, because the Nationals bullpen gave up a run in the seventh, and it was clear that any run the Marlins scored was one more than the Nationals would score. The Nationals made A.J. Burnett look like Walter Johnson yesterday, and never mounted a serious offensive challenge. In the first, Burnett walked Brad Wilkerson and hit Jamey Carroll, but then mowed down Nick Johnson, Vinny Castilla, and Ryan Church. The Nationals got only four hits on the day and looked seriously overmatched.
The Nationals are now five games behind the Braves and may be out of that race. They are two games behind the Astros for the wild card and are dangerously close to falling too far behind in that race. July has been the Nationals' last month, and with it unlikely that they'll make a significant deal before the trade deadline, the team looks like it's fading fast back to .500.
Saturday, July 30, 2005
Stop acting like we don't know why this is happening
The Nationals lost to the Marlins last night, 4-3. The team has now lost 17 out of its last 22 games and is 8-17 in July. After winning 24 of its first 32 one-run games, the Nationals has lost their last 8 one-run games.
While lamenting the team's losing ways last night, Mel Proctor feigned ignorance about the causes and essentially blamed it on bad luck. Jim Bowden and Frank Robinson have done the same, as have some of our friends (we don't tell them we think they're crazy, by the way). All of these people act like there is some mystery why the Nationals are losing in July.
We think some simple statistics explain the teams' current position. First, the Nationals have scored 400 runs, but have allowed 424, meaning that their expected won-loss record is 49-54. In other words, it's their actual record of 55-48 that is a product of luck, not their recent losing.
Second, in July the Nationals haven't been able to hit the ball. Here are their stats: .296 OBP, .330 SLG, .626 OPS. You can't win consistently when you're hiiting this badly.
Third, in their July losses the Nationals are hitting .164 with runners in scoring position. In other words, the Nationals haven't been able to capitalize on their scoring opportunities. We saw a good example of this in the 7th inning last night, when the Nationals scored two runs, which qualifies as an offensive explosion for this team right now. But after scoring these runs they had men on first and second with only one out. Would you let Cristian Guzman bat in this situation? Neither would Frank Robinson, so he brought in Carlos Baerga. But Baegra grounded meekly to first, which moved up the runners but left the Nationals with only one out. Next, Robinson had Ryan Church bat for Tony Armas. What did Church do? He watched strikes two and three land in the catcher's mitt.
You're not going to win many one-run games playing like this. In fact, you're not going to win many games, period, playing like this. We all know why the Nationals haven't been very good lately--they've been terrible at the plate. Let's stop acting like there's some mystery to this and start focusing on how we can get out of it.
While lamenting the team's losing ways last night, Mel Proctor feigned ignorance about the causes and essentially blamed it on bad luck. Jim Bowden and Frank Robinson have done the same, as have some of our friends (we don't tell them we think they're crazy, by the way). All of these people act like there is some mystery why the Nationals are losing in July.
We think some simple statistics explain the teams' current position. First, the Nationals have scored 400 runs, but have allowed 424, meaning that their expected won-loss record is 49-54. In other words, it's their actual record of 55-48 that is a product of luck, not their recent losing.
Second, in July the Nationals haven't been able to hit the ball. Here are their stats: .296 OBP, .330 SLG, .626 OPS. You can't win consistently when you're hiiting this badly.
Third, in their July losses the Nationals are hitting .164 with runners in scoring position. In other words, the Nationals haven't been able to capitalize on their scoring opportunities. We saw a good example of this in the 7th inning last night, when the Nationals scored two runs, which qualifies as an offensive explosion for this team right now. But after scoring these runs they had men on first and second with only one out. Would you let Cristian Guzman bat in this situation? Neither would Frank Robinson, so he brought in Carlos Baerga. But Baegra grounded meekly to first, which moved up the runners but left the Nationals with only one out. Next, Robinson had Ryan Church bat for Tony Armas. What did Church do? He watched strikes two and three land in the catcher's mitt.
You're not going to win many one-run games playing like this. In fact, you're not going to win many games, period, playing like this. We all know why the Nationals haven't been very good lately--they've been terrible at the plate. Let's stop acting like there's some mystery to this and start focusing on how we can get out of it.
Friday, July 29, 2005
A Radical Trade Proposal
We've been pretty negative about the Nationals recently, which should come as no surprise given that they're 8-16 in July and have the hitting punch of an aging Mike Tyson. But let's try to imagine a better world for the Nationals. Let's try to imagine a team with the hitting talent they need to compete for the Eastern Division title. What would that team look like, and what would we have to give up to get there?
We start with the proposition that the Nationals are one of the worst hitting teams in the major leagues, and certainly the worst hitting team of any first or second place team. Meanwhile, the Nationals have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Yes, their bullpen needs help, but of all the things the Nationals need that's probably the easiest hole to fill. And the Nationals don't have much of a farm system to use as trade bait. The once vaunted Montreal Expos talent machine is going to have to be retooled over the next few years.
So, the Nationals will have to trade pitching for offense. Who should they trade?
First, they should trade Livan Hernandez. Don't get us wrong, Hernandez has been good, but he hasn't been great:
H/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9 -- K/9 -- K/BB -- ERA
9.21 -- 3.15 --- .63 ---5.43 - 1.73 -- 3.32
Hernandez' saving grace has been the infrequency with which he gives up the long ball, but some of that skill is no doubt related to his pitching in RFK. He does have 12 victories, and he is a smart and effective pitcher, so a lot of teams will be interested in him. His trade value is also never likely to be as high as it is right now.
Second, the Nationals also should trade Armando Galarraga, a young pitcher who is tearing up AA.
Third, depending on who they could get, we think the Nationals should seriously consider trading Chad Cordero. Before you shout us down, realize that we would rather not trade Cordero. But trading closers is a good way to improve; few closers are at the top of their game for long; the Nationals are going to have to pay Cordero a lot of money when he goes to arbitration; and THE NATIONALS HAVE NO OFFENSE!
Trading these pitchers would weaken the staff, yes, but it would leave them with John Patterson, Esteban Loaiza, and company, and they could add more bullpen help in other trades or pick-ups.
Who can the Nationals get for Hernandez, Galarraga, and Cordero? How about Adam Dunn, who could play left field, Alfonso Soriano, the Texas Ranger second baseman who could move to third, and a shortstop? That would plug the Nationals gaping offensive holes, give them a chance to compete this year, and set them up nicely for the future.
We'll have more to say about this this weekend, but think about it: don't the Nationals have to do something dramatic to improve?
Thursday, July 28, 2005
Scary Movie XIV
The script was a bit different today, but the outcome was the same--another frustrating, one-run loss.
Instead of their pretty regular stellar pitching performances, the Nationals got another mediocre (or worse) outing from Ryan Drese: 4 IP, 6 hits, 3 walks, only 2 strikeouts, and 1 home run. Drese gave up 4 runs, one of which was unearned, and saw his ERA climb to 5.61--ouch! After showing some promise after the Nationals claimed him off waivers, Drese has returned to the form that convinced the Rangers to put him on waivers in the first place. He doesn't throw hard enough to overpower hitters and doesn't do much to fool them, either. He strikes out so few players that he relies on batters hitting 'em where they are, and that's not a strategy for long-term success. He needs to develop a pitch other than his sinker, preferably one that has lateral movement on it.
Sorry for that digression--back to the game. Last night the Nationals intentionally walked Adam LaRoche to get to Jeff Francoeur, who made them pay for that decision. Francouer continued his torrid hitting today, blasting two solo home runs off Drese and Sunny Kim. Francoeur is now hitting .441 and has an OPS of 1.412. That is, by the way, about 3 times more than Cristian Guzman's OPS, which is interesting because Guzman makes about 12 times more than Francoeur.
The Nats put up a fight, but again couldn't capitalize on opportunities. In the top of the fifth, Nick Johnson doubled, but the Colorado couple--Vinny Castilla and Preston Wilson--popped out. After Johnson went to third on a wild pitch, Schneider and Guzman walked. Carlos Baerga couldn't get the ball out of the infield, but that was good enough for a single that scored Johnson. With men on second and third and the score 4-1, the Nationals really needed another hit. What they got instead was a foul ball out by Brad Wilkerson. Think about that for a moment: with two men in scoring position two Nationals' hitters couldn't put the ball into fair territory in the outfield. This is becoming a recurring problem for us.
The Nationals squandered another opportunity in the top of the sixth. Jose Vidro doubled, and Jose Guillen singled him home. After Nick Johnson singled Guillen to second, Castilla tried to sacrifice bunt. We say "tried" because Castilla's bunt was bad enough that Brian McCann, Atlanta's catcher, threw Guillen out at third. Frank Robinson overuses the bunt, and this was a prime example of that--if you're not going to rely on one of your alleged power hitters to advance the runners by swinging away, why is he in the lineup? And it's not like Castilla was setting the table for Bonds and Pujols--Wilson and Schneider were waiting in the wings and both of them are mired in slumps. Sure enough, Wilson flied out and Schneider grounded out to end the inning.
Guillen hit a two-run homer in the top of the 7th to put the Nationals within one run, but they couldn't mount any rallies over the next two innings. The one-run margin is a little hard to take given that the Braves scored one run in the bottom of the third when Schneider dropped Castilla's throw to home that was there in time to tag Rafael Furcal, who was trying to score from third on a ground out by Chipper Jones.
It was another tough loss, and it put the Nationals three back of the Braves and only a half-game ahead of the Astros for the wild card. Houston could tie the race tonight with a win at home against the Mets. With a weekend series in Florida looming, the Nats had better turn this around fast or their going to be out of the playoff picture in August.
Instead of their pretty regular stellar pitching performances, the Nationals got another mediocre (or worse) outing from Ryan Drese: 4 IP, 6 hits, 3 walks, only 2 strikeouts, and 1 home run. Drese gave up 4 runs, one of which was unearned, and saw his ERA climb to 5.61--ouch! After showing some promise after the Nationals claimed him off waivers, Drese has returned to the form that convinced the Rangers to put him on waivers in the first place. He doesn't throw hard enough to overpower hitters and doesn't do much to fool them, either. He strikes out so few players that he relies on batters hitting 'em where they are, and that's not a strategy for long-term success. He needs to develop a pitch other than his sinker, preferably one that has lateral movement on it.
Sorry for that digression--back to the game. Last night the Nationals intentionally walked Adam LaRoche to get to Jeff Francoeur, who made them pay for that decision. Francouer continued his torrid hitting today, blasting two solo home runs off Drese and Sunny Kim. Francoeur is now hitting .441 and has an OPS of 1.412. That is, by the way, about 3 times more than Cristian Guzman's OPS, which is interesting because Guzman makes about 12 times more than Francoeur.
The Nats put up a fight, but again couldn't capitalize on opportunities. In the top of the fifth, Nick Johnson doubled, but the Colorado couple--Vinny Castilla and Preston Wilson--popped out. After Johnson went to third on a wild pitch, Schneider and Guzman walked. Carlos Baerga couldn't get the ball out of the infield, but that was good enough for a single that scored Johnson. With men on second and third and the score 4-1, the Nationals really needed another hit. What they got instead was a foul ball out by Brad Wilkerson. Think about that for a moment: with two men in scoring position two Nationals' hitters couldn't put the ball into fair territory in the outfield. This is becoming a recurring problem for us.
The Nationals squandered another opportunity in the top of the sixth. Jose Vidro doubled, and Jose Guillen singled him home. After Nick Johnson singled Guillen to second, Castilla tried to sacrifice bunt. We say "tried" because Castilla's bunt was bad enough that Brian McCann, Atlanta's catcher, threw Guillen out at third. Frank Robinson overuses the bunt, and this was a prime example of that--if you're not going to rely on one of your alleged power hitters to advance the runners by swinging away, why is he in the lineup? And it's not like Castilla was setting the table for Bonds and Pujols--Wilson and Schneider were waiting in the wings and both of them are mired in slumps. Sure enough, Wilson flied out and Schneider grounded out to end the inning.
Guillen hit a two-run homer in the top of the 7th to put the Nationals within one run, but they couldn't mount any rallies over the next two innings. The one-run margin is a little hard to take given that the Braves scored one run in the bottom of the third when Schneider dropped Castilla's throw to home that was there in time to tag Rafael Furcal, who was trying to score from third on a ground out by Chipper Jones.
It was another tough loss, and it put the Nationals three back of the Braves and only a half-game ahead of the Astros for the wild card. Houston could tie the race tonight with a win at home against the Mets. With a weekend series in Florida looming, the Nats had better turn this around fast or their going to be out of the playoff picture in August.
I knew we were bad, but...
Think the Nationals aren't hitting too well recently? Take a look at these OPS figures for the last seven days:
Wilkerson -- .656
Vidro ----- .439
Wilson ---- .652
Castilla --- .100
Schneider - .435
Guzman -- .288
We said last night that the second half of the batting order needs help, and we weren't kidding. These stats are worse than terrible--they're embarrassing. Been wondering why the Nats can't score more than one run an inning? There is just no way the Nats can sustain a rally with these numbers, and we're going to lose most of our games with this hitting no matter how good the pitching is.
Wilkerson, Vidro, and Schneider are as good as we're going to get at their positions, at least for this year. But we've concluded that Castilla, Guzman, and Wilson have to be replaced ASAP with productive hitters. Ryan Church will help in left, but he's not a long-term solution. The only way out of this is to get better hitters, and Jim Bowden has until Sunday to get them. Who thinks he'll succeed?
Wilkerson -- .656
Vidro ----- .439
Wilson ---- .652
Castilla --- .100
Schneider - .435
Guzman -- .288
We said last night that the second half of the batting order needs help, and we weren't kidding. These stats are worse than terrible--they're embarrassing. Been wondering why the Nats can't score more than one run an inning? There is just no way the Nats can sustain a rally with these numbers, and we're going to lose most of our games with this hitting no matter how good the pitching is.
Wilkerson, Vidro, and Schneider are as good as we're going to get at their positions, at least for this year. But we've concluded that Castilla, Guzman, and Wilson have to be replaced ASAP with productive hitters. Ryan Church will help in left, but he's not a long-term solution. The only way out of this is to get better hitters, and Jim Bowden has until Sunday to get them. Who thinks he'll succeed?
Wednesday, July 27, 2005
The end
Another depressing loss:4-3 The Nats are now 2 games behind the Braves, and they need a lot of help.
Opportunism
Bottom of the 8th, 2 outs, 3-3. Chipper Jones golfs a good pitch for a single to center, then tries to steal second. Guzman can't handle what
looks like a good throw and Jones is safe. The Nats intentionally walk LaRoche to get to Francouer, who is hitting about .450 in the last week. He bloops a ball to center that Vidro can't reach and it's 4-3.
Contrast that with the Nationals congenital inability to capitalize on opportunities.
We blew it
Top of the 8th, men on first and second, no outs, 3-3. Wilson strikes out and Castilla and Schneider fly out. We can't pass up these opportunities because the come so infrequently! And the second half of our lineup needs SERIOUS help.
We'll take it
Jose instead hit a dying quail to score Wilkerson, and Kolb is hearing it
from the Braves faithful. 3-2.
How the mighty have fallen
Top of the 8th, men on 1st and 2nd, no out, and in comes demoted closer Dan Kolb. Come on, Jose, show us another road homer!
Huh?
Francoeur reaches first when Guzman watches a pop-up fall to the earth. Brian McCann then bunts and Loaiza throws it into center (Guzman couldn't pick the throw out of the dirt, by the way). Men on first and third no outs. Dumb play, but Loaiza has thrown only about 83 pitches and Robinson takes him out? And for Joey Eischen? Jeez.
Another wasted opportunity
One out, men on first and second in the top of the sixth, and Preston Wilson and Vinny Castilla ground out (at least Wilson advanced the runners). Do you think Jim Bowden knows that he should discount Coors Field stats?
A Blemish
I've found a problem with the Ted: the drains don't work after a hard rain. My feet are in 2 inches of water.
No Margin of Error
Jeff Francouer (sp?) drove in Andruw Jones, who was on second as a result of Nick Johnson's error. It's 2-1 at the end of 4. As we said last night, this team has no margin for error. Although Loaiza is pitching well, we're wasting his effort, having scored only one run. One home run by the Braves and one error by Johnson, and we're losing. That's the difference right now between us and the Braves--they're opportunistic and we're not.
Tie Game
Marcus Giles just hit a homer to tie it, 1-1. Vinny Castilla's double play
in the first may come back to haunt us.
Ugh! Nick Johnson just lost a pop-up in the lights!
Rain Delay
The heavens have opened and it's pouring, but the concession area is so big that it's almost like we're walking through a mall during the delay. I hope our stadium designers see this place before they build our park.
It would be really terrible if this delay is long because it looks like Loaiza has his best stuff tonight.
One Run at a Time
Brad Wilkerson leads off with a triple, but Jose Vidro can't hit the ball to the left side, and Wilkerson has to hold as Chipper Jones throws out Vidro. I've got a feeling of dread at this point, but Jose Guillen singles in
Wilkerson. After Nick Johnson singles and Preston Wilson walks, I'm thinking that this could be a big inning. But, alas, Vinny Castilla grounds into a double play to end the inning.
Why can we score only one run at a time?!
The Ted
I've come to like (or at least tolerate) RFK, but this place makes me long
for a new stadium in DC. The park is absolutely beautiful, the jumbotron
has an HD TV like picture, the walkways are wide, and the concessions are awesome. There are restaurants on some of the concourses and a lot of places for the casual fan (about whom we've heard a lot in DC recently) to hang out. The Ted has all the comforts and amenities that RFK lacks.
On the other hand, it's about to rain. It would really suck if my first
trip to Turner Field was rained out!
Tonight's Game
A Loaiza-Hudson matchup is a pretty even match for tonight's game. If, somehow, the Nationals can take the final two games of the series, it would be a BIG shot in the arm and a potential turning point in the season. Yes, we know that's overheated rhetoric, but given all the heartache recently why not dream?
You will see posts from Atlanta during the game tonight because we've finally figured out how to post by email. (We're still learning how to use this whole HTML thing.) Now that Peter Angelos has blocked us from seeing the game in DC, we hope the email posts will provide some useful information without boring you to death!
You will see posts from Atlanta during the game tonight because we've finally figured out how to post by email. (We're still learning how to use this whole HTML thing.) Now that Peter Angelos has blocked us from seeing the game in DC, we hope the email posts will provide some useful information without boring you to death!
ATM Madness
We keep forgetting to mention this, but here's a community service message: don't ever go to RFK needing cash. There are too few ATMs, and the lines are ridiculously long. Wait times are often longer than ten minutes, and that's time that could be better spent watching the Nationals pound the ball all over the yard.
Atlanta Trip
One of us has to go to Atlanta today, and I'm taking the opportunity to attend the Nationals game tonight at the Ted. I'll report back tomorrow on the game and the stadium.
Preston Wilson: Fourth Outfielder
As we said here and here, we did not like the Preston Wilson trade, not so much because of what the Nationals gave up, but because what they essentially got was a fourth outfielder and the team already had one of those. Well, with Nick Johnson back, Wilson became a fourth outfielder last night. What the Nationals needed when they made the Wilson trade and what the need now is an upgrade over Ryan Church, who is, we believe, also a fourth outfielder. Unfortunately, Wilson's numbers outside Coors Field this year and last show that he's not the upgrade we need. Wilson apparently will play in a rotation of outfielders, but that's not much help.
Tuesday, July 26, 2005
It just keeps getting worse
Tell us if you recognize this pattern: the Nationals score two or three runs, the starting pitcher throws a good game and leaves with the game tied or with a small lead, the Nats can't score any runs late in the game, and the bullpen gives up the winning run in a game the Nationals will probably regret during the stretch run. This is the pattern of most of the Nationals losses recently, and tonight's game proceeded according to this same script.
The Nationals scored in the top of the third when, with Brian Schneider at first, Cristian Guzman and Livan Hernandez hit consecutive ground balls that advanced Schneider to third. Brad Wilkerson then drove him home with a single. The Nationals had a chance at a big rally in the top of the fifth after Livan Hernandez and Brad Wilkerson singled. Unfortunately, with men on first and second and no one out, Jose Vidro promptly grounded into a double play. Jose Guillen drove home Hernandez with a single, but Nick Johnson grounded out to end the inning.
Meanwhile, Livan Hernandez was pitching a masterful game. In eight innings he gave up only five hits and a walk, while striking out five. His only earned run came in the bottom of the eighth when Adam LaRoche homered. It was then 2-1, and you had to feel good about the Nats' chances with Chad Cordero coming in to close out the game in the ninth.
That good feeling soon disappeared. Andruw Jones doubled and Chipper Jones singled to put men at first and third with no outs. LaRoche hit a sacrifice fly, and just like that the game was tied and the Nationals had wasted Hernandez' great start. Now the game was on the line. Thankfully, Wilson Betemit, who was running for Chipper Jones, was caught trying to steal second and Ryan Langerhans grounded out.
The Nationals had avoided the loss in the bottom of the ninth, but we've learned that they cannot score late in games, so it seemed like just a matter of time before the Nats lost. Sure enough, in the top of the tenth the Nationals went out meekly in order.
The bottom of the tenth started just about as badly as the bottom of the ninth had. With Mike Stanton pitching, Brian McCann singled, and Julio Franco sacrificed Jeff Francoeur, who was running for McCann, to second. Stanton then walked Rafael Furcal intentionally, and got Kelly Johnson to pop out. With two outs, Luis Ayala relieved Stanton. In retrospect, that was a terrible decision. Ayala hit Marcus Giles to load the bases and walked Andruw Jones on four pitches to give the Braves the 3-2 victory.
This was a thoroughly depressing game, and a loss that the Nationals could not afford. Everything was set up for them--a great pitching performance from Hernandez, just enough runs to give them the lead going into the ninth, and a save opportunity for Chad Cordero. But Cordero blew the save and the Nationals lost yet another game in July that they had in hand.
One game behind the Braves now, the Nationals are operating with no margin for error. They don't score enough runs for the team to win when either the starters or the relievers pitch badly, and they are incapable both of holding the small leads it often takes into the middle and late innings and scoring the runs it needs to retake the lead. That means that when one of the pitchers does pitch badly, as both Cordero and Ayala did tonight, the team is likely to lose. That doesn't sound like a playoff team to us.
The Nationals scored in the top of the third when, with Brian Schneider at first, Cristian Guzman and Livan Hernandez hit consecutive ground balls that advanced Schneider to third. Brad Wilkerson then drove him home with a single. The Nationals had a chance at a big rally in the top of the fifth after Livan Hernandez and Brad Wilkerson singled. Unfortunately, with men on first and second and no one out, Jose Vidro promptly grounded into a double play. Jose Guillen drove home Hernandez with a single, but Nick Johnson grounded out to end the inning.
Meanwhile, Livan Hernandez was pitching a masterful game. In eight innings he gave up only five hits and a walk, while striking out five. His only earned run came in the bottom of the eighth when Adam LaRoche homered. It was then 2-1, and you had to feel good about the Nats' chances with Chad Cordero coming in to close out the game in the ninth.
That good feeling soon disappeared. Andruw Jones doubled and Chipper Jones singled to put men at first and third with no outs. LaRoche hit a sacrifice fly, and just like that the game was tied and the Nationals had wasted Hernandez' great start. Now the game was on the line. Thankfully, Wilson Betemit, who was running for Chipper Jones, was caught trying to steal second and Ryan Langerhans grounded out.
The Nationals had avoided the loss in the bottom of the ninth, but we've learned that they cannot score late in games, so it seemed like just a matter of time before the Nats lost. Sure enough, in the top of the tenth the Nationals went out meekly in order.
The bottom of the tenth started just about as badly as the bottom of the ninth had. With Mike Stanton pitching, Brian McCann singled, and Julio Franco sacrificed Jeff Francoeur, who was running for McCann, to second. Stanton then walked Rafael Furcal intentionally, and got Kelly Johnson to pop out. With two outs, Luis Ayala relieved Stanton. In retrospect, that was a terrible decision. Ayala hit Marcus Giles to load the bases and walked Andruw Jones on four pitches to give the Braves the 3-2 victory.
This was a thoroughly depressing game, and a loss that the Nationals could not afford. Everything was set up for them--a great pitching performance from Hernandez, just enough runs to give them the lead going into the ninth, and a save opportunity for Chad Cordero. But Cordero blew the save and the Nationals lost yet another game in July that they had in hand.
One game behind the Braves now, the Nationals are operating with no margin for error. They don't score enough runs for the team to win when either the starters or the relievers pitch badly, and they are incapable both of holding the small leads it often takes into the middle and late innings and scoring the runs it needs to retake the lead. That means that when one of the pitchers does pitch badly, as both Cordero and Ayala did tonight, the team is likely to lose. That doesn't sound like a playoff team to us.
Um, guys, you made a mistake
Sit down before you click on this link, because next to the headline "Cordero Placed on Waivers" is a picture that is a very unfortunate mistake.
Tonight's Game
John Smoltz starts tonight against the Nationals. Smoltz has started four games in July, and he has been awesome. In 28 innings, he has the following stats:
K/BB -- K/9 -- BB/9 -- H/9 -- HR/9 -- ERA -- Opp. Avg.
4.2 --- 6.75 - 1.61 -- 6.75 - .96 --- 2.25 - .208
Livan Hernandez--the Nationals' starter tonight--hasn't done as well in July:
K/BB -- K/9 -- BB/9 -- H/9 -- HR/9 -- ERA -- Opp. Avg.
2.7 --- 5.7 -- 2.11 -- 10.5 - 1.5 --- 3.90 - .313
In other words, the Braves have the clear advantage on the mound tonight. They also have the advantage at the plate. In July, the Braves have the following stats: .322 OBP, .417 SLG, .739 OPS. The Nationals' stats are: .297 OBP, .333 SLG, .630 OPS.
All of this doesn't bode well for tonight, but Livan has pulled great games out of nowhere before, so let's hope he does it again tonight.
K/BB -- K/9 -- BB/9 -- H/9 -- HR/9 -- ERA -- Opp. Avg.
4.2 --- 6.75 - 1.61 -- 6.75 - .96 --- 2.25 - .208
Livan Hernandez--the Nationals' starter tonight--hasn't done as well in July:
K/BB -- K/9 -- BB/9 -- H/9 -- HR/9 -- ERA -- Opp. Avg.
2.7 --- 5.7 -- 2.11 -- 10.5 - 1.5 --- 3.90 - .313
In other words, the Braves have the clear advantage on the mound tonight. They also have the advantage at the plate. In July, the Braves have the following stats: .322 OBP, .417 SLG, .739 OPS. The Nationals' stats are: .297 OBP, .333 SLG, .630 OPS.
All of this doesn't bode well for tonight, but Livan has pulled great games out of nowhere before, so let's hope he does it again tonight.
Jim Bowden: Man in Denial
Jim Bowden makes the following statement in today's New York Times:
"The team has to step up and show Atlanta and show the league the first half wasn't a fluke."
"We have basically collapsed since the All-Star break, and it's the first time I've seen a team collapse when it's had great pitching. This team needs a wake-up call, and going into Atlanta right now, this is a very important series for this team."
"If the season ended right now, we would be in the postseason, but we're not playing well and we haven't played well since the All-Star break. We've got to turn it around, and I can't think of a better time to turn it around then these games against Atlanta and Florida."
The Nationals' problem has been hitting, and Bowden pretty clearly is blaming the team's recent problems on its position players who have been unable to generate much offense. But Bowden seems to think that these hitters can, beginning today in Atlanta, turn it around and start hitting much better. In other words, Bowden doesn't seem to think the Nationals need additional offense; the problem is that the team's current offense isn't playing up to its potential.
That is just plain wrong. The first half was a fluke: the team's expected record based on its runs scored and runs allowed is only 47-52. The Nationals have played above their heads, and their first half record is unsustainable. The challenge now is to lock in the first half gains by trading for players who can materially improve the team and keep it in the pennant race.
As for the team's needs, here is a comparison of this year's and last year's OPS for the Nationals' starting position players. For Preston Wilson and Vinny Castilla we've limited their 2004 stats to their performance outside Colorado to diminish the distorting effect of Coors Field.
Pos -- Player ----- 2005 -- 2004
C ---- Schneider -- .747 -- .724
1B --- Johnson ---- .952 -- .757
2B --- Vidro ------ .769 -- .821
SS --- Guzman ----- .501 -- .693
3B --- Castilla --- .721 -- .774
LF --- Church ----- .904 -- .495
LF --- Byrd ------- .603 -- .608
CF --- Wilkerson -- .779 -- .872
CF --- Wilson ----- .857 -- .689
RF --- Guillen ---- .872 -- .849
Vidro, Castilla, and Wilkerson are underperforming their stats last year, but as we've shown in our analysis of the effect of RFK on Wilkerson's stats, all three are performing about what we would expect given that they play half of their games in an extreme pitcher's park. Guzman is clearly underperforming last year's stats.
But Schneider, Johnson, Church, Wilson, and Guillen are outperforming their stats last year. Thus, other than Guzman, we think these year on year stats are basically a watch. In other words, the problem isn't that the Nationals' players aren't playing to their potential, the problem is that the Nationals don't have enough quality hitters.
So, rather than blame the team's woes on its hitters, Bowden should be spending his time trading for the hitters the team needs to continue its winning ways.
"The team has to step up and show Atlanta and show the league the first half wasn't a fluke."
"We have basically collapsed since the All-Star break, and it's the first time I've seen a team collapse when it's had great pitching. This team needs a wake-up call, and going into Atlanta right now, this is a very important series for this team."
"If the season ended right now, we would be in the postseason, but we're not playing well and we haven't played well since the All-Star break. We've got to turn it around, and I can't think of a better time to turn it around then these games against Atlanta and Florida."
The Nationals' problem has been hitting, and Bowden pretty clearly is blaming the team's recent problems on its position players who have been unable to generate much offense. But Bowden seems to think that these hitters can, beginning today in Atlanta, turn it around and start hitting much better. In other words, Bowden doesn't seem to think the Nationals need additional offense; the problem is that the team's current offense isn't playing up to its potential.
That is just plain wrong. The first half was a fluke: the team's expected record based on its runs scored and runs allowed is only 47-52. The Nationals have played above their heads, and their first half record is unsustainable. The challenge now is to lock in the first half gains by trading for players who can materially improve the team and keep it in the pennant race.
As for the team's needs, here is a comparison of this year's and last year's OPS for the Nationals' starting position players. For Preston Wilson and Vinny Castilla we've limited their 2004 stats to their performance outside Colorado to diminish the distorting effect of Coors Field.
Pos -- Player ----- 2005 -- 2004
C ---- Schneider -- .747 -- .724
1B --- Johnson ---- .952 -- .757
2B --- Vidro ------ .769 -- .821
SS --- Guzman ----- .501 -- .693
3B --- Castilla --- .721 -- .774
LF --- Church ----- .904 -- .495
LF --- Byrd ------- .603 -- .608
CF --- Wilkerson -- .779 -- .872
CF --- Wilson ----- .857 -- .689
RF --- Guillen ---- .872 -- .849
Vidro, Castilla, and Wilkerson are underperforming their stats last year, but as we've shown in our analysis of the effect of RFK on Wilkerson's stats, all three are performing about what we would expect given that they play half of their games in an extreme pitcher's park. Guzman is clearly underperforming last year's stats.
But Schneider, Johnson, Church, Wilson, and Guillen are outperforming their stats last year. Thus, other than Guzman, we think these year on year stats are basically a watch. In other words, the problem isn't that the Nationals' players aren't playing to their potential, the problem is that the Nationals don't have enough quality hitters.
So, rather than blame the team's woes on its hitters, Bowden should be spending his time trading for the hitters the team needs to continue its winning ways.
That's surprising
Having designated Wil Cordero for assignment a week ago, the Nationals released him because they couldn't find anyone willing to trade for him. Cordero's stats were as follows: .161 OBP, .157 SLG, .318 OPS.
Monday, July 25, 2005
You're kidding, right?
This is from the July 14 edition of the Washington Post:
"Bowden, who has pursued Wilson for months, has been adamant that the Nationals would target pitching prior to the July 31 trade deadline. Many times, when asked what he felt the club needed, he responded, 'Pitching, pitching, pitching.'"
"Bowden, who has pursued Wilson for months, has been adamant that the Nationals would target pitching prior to the July 31 trade deadline. Many times, when asked what he felt the club needed, he responded, 'Pitching, pitching, pitching.'"
The Sad Facts
Here are the Nationals' sorry OPS stats for July:
Guillen --- .849
Church ---- .802
Schneider - .792
Baerga ---- .705
Castilla -- .665
Wilkerson - .657
Vidro ----- .614
Carroll --- .586
Byrd ------ .400
Bennett --- .358
Guzman ---- .223
Spivey ---- .211
The team's OPS for July is .630. These numbers are, to use a word we've used a lot lately, pathetic. Guillen, Church, and Schneider are the only players with acceptable numbers for the month.
Given these stats, it's not hard to see why Frank Robinson yesterday said: "It doesn't matter who we're playing, the way we're going. ... If we go into Atlanta and hit the way we've been going, we don't have a chance." So true. To make matters worse, it looks like Guillen won't be available in Atlanta because of a sore wrist.
Oh, by the way, the Braves' OPS for July is .739, more than 100 points more than the Nationals'. That doesn't bode well for the Nats.
Guillen --- .849
Church ---- .802
Schneider - .792
Baerga ---- .705
Castilla -- .665
Wilkerson - .657
Vidro ----- .614
Carroll --- .586
Byrd ------ .400
Bennett --- .358
Guzman ---- .223
Spivey ---- .211
The team's OPS for July is .630. These numbers are, to use a word we've used a lot lately, pathetic. Guillen, Church, and Schneider are the only players with acceptable numbers for the month.
Given these stats, it's not hard to see why Frank Robinson yesterday said: "It doesn't matter who we're playing, the way we're going. ... If we go into Atlanta and hit the way we've been going, we don't have a chance." So true. To make matters worse, it looks like Guillen won't be available in Atlanta because of a sore wrist.
Oh, by the way, the Braves' OPS for July is .739, more than 100 points more than the Nationals'. That doesn't bode well for the Nats.
Historically Bad
This is from the Elias Sports Bureau:
"The Nationals went 2-5 on their just-completed homestand, scoring only 18 runs (an average of 2.6 per game) and hitting .225 with only one home run. In the "home-run era" (1993 to now), only one other major-league team has had a homestand of at least seven games in which it had numbers as poor as the Nationals had in runs, home runs and batting average -- in July 2002, the Diamondbacks had a seven-game homestand on which they did not hit a home run, averaged 2.4 runs per game and hit .219."
"The Nationals went 2-5 on their just-completed homestand, scoring only 18 runs (an average of 2.6 per game) and hitting .225 with only one home run. In the "home-run era" (1993 to now), only one other major-league team has had a homestand of at least seven games in which it had numbers as poor as the Nationals had in runs, home runs and batting average -- in July 2002, the Diamondbacks had a seven-game homestand on which they did not hit a home run, averaged 2.4 runs per game and hit .219."
Sunday, July 24, 2005
Pathetic
In what was one of the worst displays of offense in recent memory, the Nationals lost 4-1 in 14 innings when Hector Carrasco gave up a three-run home run to Eric Bruntlett, a shortstop with an anemic .333 slugging percentage. Along the way, the Nationals wasted another dominating performance by John Patterson, who gave up one run and six hits in eight innings, struck out 10, and walked no one. Although Patterson's ERA is down to 2.58, he has only a 4-2 record to show for it.
Able to muster only four hits in 14 innings, the Nationals' offense was horrific from the very beginning. With one out in the first inning and Brad Wilkerson on second, the Nationals couldn't get the ball out of the infield: Jose Guillen popped out and Preston Wilson grounded out. Guillen and Wilson were a combined 1-9 on the day. With one out in the fifth, Marlon Byrd doubled and Gary Bennett singled for the Nationals' only run of the day. Could the Nationals actually mount a rally? No. Cristian Guzman promptly grounded into a double play--so much for his bat's "signs of life."
The Nationals' pathetic lack of punch was almost too much to take in the bottom of the eighth. After Byrd walked, Bennett hit a sacrifice bunt so hard that it essentially was a ground ball to first. The attempt worked out only because Mike Lamb fielded the ball and threw it into left-center, enabling Byrd to advance to third. With men on first and third and no outs, all the Nationals needed was a fly ball to score a run, but again they couldn't even hit the ball out of the infield. Brian Schneider, hitting for Guzman, grounded out to second. Byrd had to hold, but Kenny Kelly, running for Bennett, went to second. Ryan Church then grounded to the pitcher on a check swing and Wilkerson struck out.
Here's the thing: if you're going to play small ball, you have to do the little things to drive in a run from third with no outs. If you can't do that, you can't play small ball; in fact, you can't play any ball. So, until the Nationals start to produce some runs on a regular basis with timely hitting and the occasional sacrifice fly, can we please dispense with the announcers and columnists waxing poetic about the virtues of a Nationals team "built" to win one-run games by doing the "little things"?
The Nationals never mounted any offensive challenge after the eighth. The only significant thing that happened was that Jose Guillen was hit on the hand by a pitch in the bottom of the ninth and looked like he had been hurt. He collapsed to the ground twice before being led off the field, but the x-rays apparently are negative.
The only run that the Astros scored in regulation probably shouldn't have been a run at all. In the top of the sixth, Lance Berkman hit a fly ball to deep left field. Byrd went back to the wall but couldn't keep his balance as he went to catch the ball, which hit the wall for a double. The Astros then did the small things to score a run: Morgan Ensberg and Mike Lamb hit consecutive sacrifice flies to score Berkman.
It was 1-1, and it stayed that way until the 14th. You have to give it to the Nationals' bullpen--until the 14th they held the Astros scoreless for five innings. Along the way you would hope that the Nationals could have scored a run to tie the series, but they didn't have the offense to do so.
We must say that this is one of the most frustrating losses in a month of frustrating losses for the Nationals. The team just does not have the offense to compete at a high level right now, and without some serious healing and serious trades we don't see the situation improving for some time.
Able to muster only four hits in 14 innings, the Nationals' offense was horrific from the very beginning. With one out in the first inning and Brad Wilkerson on second, the Nationals couldn't get the ball out of the infield: Jose Guillen popped out and Preston Wilson grounded out. Guillen and Wilson were a combined 1-9 on the day. With one out in the fifth, Marlon Byrd doubled and Gary Bennett singled for the Nationals' only run of the day. Could the Nationals actually mount a rally? No. Cristian Guzman promptly grounded into a double play--so much for his bat's "signs of life."
The Nationals' pathetic lack of punch was almost too much to take in the bottom of the eighth. After Byrd walked, Bennett hit a sacrifice bunt so hard that it essentially was a ground ball to first. The attempt worked out only because Mike Lamb fielded the ball and threw it into left-center, enabling Byrd to advance to third. With men on first and third and no outs, all the Nationals needed was a fly ball to score a run, but again they couldn't even hit the ball out of the infield. Brian Schneider, hitting for Guzman, grounded out to second. Byrd had to hold, but Kenny Kelly, running for Bennett, went to second. Ryan Church then grounded to the pitcher on a check swing and Wilkerson struck out.
Here's the thing: if you're going to play small ball, you have to do the little things to drive in a run from third with no outs. If you can't do that, you can't play small ball; in fact, you can't play any ball. So, until the Nationals start to produce some runs on a regular basis with timely hitting and the occasional sacrifice fly, can we please dispense with the announcers and columnists waxing poetic about the virtues of a Nationals team "built" to win one-run games by doing the "little things"?
The Nationals never mounted any offensive challenge after the eighth. The only significant thing that happened was that Jose Guillen was hit on the hand by a pitch in the bottom of the ninth and looked like he had been hurt. He collapsed to the ground twice before being led off the field, but the x-rays apparently are negative.
The only run that the Astros scored in regulation probably shouldn't have been a run at all. In the top of the sixth, Lance Berkman hit a fly ball to deep left field. Byrd went back to the wall but couldn't keep his balance as he went to catch the ball, which hit the wall for a double. The Astros then did the small things to score a run: Morgan Ensberg and Mike Lamb hit consecutive sacrifice flies to score Berkman.
It was 1-1, and it stayed that way until the 14th. You have to give it to the Nationals' bullpen--until the 14th they held the Astros scoreless for five innings. Along the way you would hope that the Nationals could have scored a run to tie the series, but they didn't have the offense to do so.
We must say that this is one of the most frustrating losses in a month of frustrating losses for the Nationals. The team just does not have the offense to compete at a high level right now, and without some serious healing and serious trades we don't see the situation improving for some time.
Injury News
The Washington Times reports that Nick Johnson and Vinny Castilla should be back with the team on Tuesday for the start of a three-game series with the Braves. Johnson begins a rehab assignment today in Class AAA New Orleans. That's very good news in advance of what will be a critical series.
Worst Headline in Sports Page History
This is a headline from a story in today's Post:
"Guzman's Bat Is Showing Signs of Life"
The basis for this was Guzman's Friday night triple. In the last seven days, Guzman is hitting .071, his OBP is .188, his SLG is .214, and his OPS is .402. In the same seven days Pedro Martinez has an OPS of .400.
We report, you decide.
"Guzman's Bat Is Showing Signs of Life"
The basis for this was Guzman's Friday night triple. In the last seven days, Guzman is hitting .071, his OBP is .188, his SLG is .214, and his OPS is .402. In the same seven days Pedro Martinez has an OPS of .400.
We report, you decide.
Home Runs
The Nationals have hit ten home runs in July, the fewest of any team in Major League Baseball. In the same month, Jason Giambi has hit ten home runs, and Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey have hit eight. All three players reportedly have been available via trade at some point this season, and Giambi and Griffey would have been available at a steep discount earlier in the summer (Griffey still may be).
Thanks, I needed that
After losing 11 out of their last 15 and all of their lead in the National League East and after being embarrassed by a blowout the night before, the Nationals badly needed a win last night, and Willie Taveras and Tony Armas gave it to them. With one out in the first inning and Wilkerson on first, Jose Guillen hit a ground rule double that put men on first and third. Ryan Church then popped out and Preston Wilson walked to load the bases. When Carlos Baerga hit a fly ball to center, it seemed like the Nats were ready to squander another scoring opportunity. But Taveras came in on the ball before he realized that it was over his head. By then he couldn't get to the ball, and Baerga had a gift bases-clearing double. Brian Schneider then singled home Baerga for all of the runs the Nationals would score and it was 4-0.
Armas pitched brilliantly, giving up only one hit in seven innings. Unfortunately, the one hit was a two-run homer in the sixth by Lance Berkman, but Armas otherwise didn't allow a batter to get to second base.
After Armas left the game, Joey Eischen did his job in the top of the eighth--he let the only batter to whom he pitched get to first base. Orlando Palmeiro singled to center and Eischen was done. Gary Majewski retired the three batters he faced, and it was on to Chad Cordero. The Chief allowed two singles, but retired the next two batters for his 34th save.
You can look on the dark side, and say had Taveras not misplayed Baerga's fly ball in the first, the Braves would be a game ahead of the Nationals, but since wins have been so hard to come by why be so negative? The Nats got a win they badly needed and remain tied with the Braves for the lead in the National League East. With John Patterson pitching today, the Nationals have a chance to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since July 3. Here's hoping Patterson pitches another gem.
Armas pitched brilliantly, giving up only one hit in seven innings. Unfortunately, the one hit was a two-run homer in the sixth by Lance Berkman, but Armas otherwise didn't allow a batter to get to second base.
After Armas left the game, Joey Eischen did his job in the top of the eighth--he let the only batter to whom he pitched get to first base. Orlando Palmeiro singled to center and Eischen was done. Gary Majewski retired the three batters he faced, and it was on to Chad Cordero. The Chief allowed two singles, but retired the next two batters for his 34th save.
You can look on the dark side, and say had Taveras not misplayed Baerga's fly ball in the first, the Braves would be a game ahead of the Nationals, but since wins have been so hard to come by why be so negative? The Nats got a win they badly needed and remain tied with the Braves for the lead in the National League East. With John Patterson pitching today, the Nationals have a chance to put together back-to-back wins for the first time since July 3. Here's hoping Patterson pitches another gem.
Saturday, July 23, 2005
Overmatched
To give you some idea of the disadvantage under which the Nationals were operating last night, consider these facts:
-- Roger Clemens has a road ERA of only 0.34
-- The Washington Nationals have scored the fewest runs at home of any team in Major League Baseball
-- Christian Guzman has an embarrassingly low OPS of .501, which is the OPS of a minor league player, at best
-- Roger Clemens on the road has allowed an OPS of only .431
-- In the month of July, the Nationals have scored the fewest runs in baseball, and the Astros have scored the most
This was, in other words, a perfect storm of trends that tilted decided in favor of the Astros.
And the outcome was never in doubt. With two outs in the top of the first, Ryan Drese walked Lance Berkman. Morgan Ensberg then hit a ball off the scoreboard in left-center field. He hit the ball so far that the argument about the dimensions of the outfield wall suddenly seemed irrelevant. At 2-0, we sensed that the game was over, and at 3-0 after the third inning, we were convinced it was over. It became 4-0 in the sixth when, with two outs, men on first and third, and Clemens at bat, the cement-footed Brad Ausmus broke toward second. When Brian Schneider threw the ball to Jamey Carroll, Ausmus stopped in his tracks and started to go back toward first. Meanwhile, Adam Everett tried to score from third, and Carroll's throw home was too late. The Astros had outmaneuvered the Nationals, and you had to wonder why the Nationals weren't ready for a play that is about as old as the game itself.
The Nationals had a couple of opportunities against Clemens, but any time there were men on base he simply mowed down the next batch of hitters. He struck out ten and gave up only three hits and no runs. Jose Guillen in particular appeared overmatched in a key situation, swinging at three split-finger fastballs in the dirt with two outs and men on first and second in the bottom of the third. Guzman, too, looked overmatched, but that was to be expected. The fans have begun to boo Guzman, and we're convinced that his time on the field is coming to an end.
The assault was on beginning in the top of the seventh, when the Astros began to stretch their 4-0 lead. It looked a whole lot like batting practice as they scored ten runs over the last three innings. In the end, the score was 14-1, and we left the stadium thinking that the Washington Nationals have a lot of improving to do if they want to make the playoffs.
-- Roger Clemens has a road ERA of only 0.34
-- The Washington Nationals have scored the fewest runs at home of any team in Major League Baseball
-- Christian Guzman has an embarrassingly low OPS of .501, which is the OPS of a minor league player, at best
-- Roger Clemens on the road has allowed an OPS of only .431
-- In the month of July, the Nationals have scored the fewest runs in baseball, and the Astros have scored the most
This was, in other words, a perfect storm of trends that tilted decided in favor of the Astros.
And the outcome was never in doubt. With two outs in the top of the first, Ryan Drese walked Lance Berkman. Morgan Ensberg then hit a ball off the scoreboard in left-center field. He hit the ball so far that the argument about the dimensions of the outfield wall suddenly seemed irrelevant. At 2-0, we sensed that the game was over, and at 3-0 after the third inning, we were convinced it was over. It became 4-0 in the sixth when, with two outs, men on first and third, and Clemens at bat, the cement-footed Brad Ausmus broke toward second. When Brian Schneider threw the ball to Jamey Carroll, Ausmus stopped in his tracks and started to go back toward first. Meanwhile, Adam Everett tried to score from third, and Carroll's throw home was too late. The Astros had outmaneuvered the Nationals, and you had to wonder why the Nationals weren't ready for a play that is about as old as the game itself.
The Nationals had a couple of opportunities against Clemens, but any time there were men on base he simply mowed down the next batch of hitters. He struck out ten and gave up only three hits and no runs. Jose Guillen in particular appeared overmatched in a key situation, swinging at three split-finger fastballs in the dirt with two outs and men on first and second in the bottom of the third. Guzman, too, looked overmatched, but that was to be expected. The fans have begun to boo Guzman, and we're convinced that his time on the field is coming to an end.
The assault was on beginning in the top of the seventh, when the Astros began to stretch their 4-0 lead. It looked a whole lot like batting practice as they scored ten runs over the last three innings. In the end, the score was 14-1, and we left the stadium thinking that the Washington Nationals have a lot of improving to do if they want to make the playoffs.
Friday, July 22, 2005
In Praise of Roger Clemens
Those of us lucky enough to see Roger Clemens pitch tonight--in person or on TV--will be watching what may be the greatest pitcher of all time. A Washington Senator--Walter Johnson--is often mentioned as baseball's all-time greatest pitcher--and he may be--but Clemens' career numbers compare favorably with Johnson's.
Pitcher --- H/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9 -- K/9 --- K/BB
Johnson -- 7.48 -- 2.07 --- .15 ----- 5.34 -- 2.57
Clemens -- 7.66 -- 2.91 -- .66 ----- 8.63 --- 2.97
Johnson gave up fewer hits and walks per nine innings, but Clemens struck out more hitters. Johnson's HR/9 ratio is infinitesimal, but he played much of his career during the dead ball era, so we should discount that number substantially (and perhaps some of his other numbers). Given that Johnson won 417 games and had a career ERA of 2.16, he might get the nod over Clemens (335 wins and career 3.13 ERA), but it's close.
Interestingly, Clemens fares better when we look at each pitcher's 21st season. Johnson's 21st season was his last; Clemens' is this year.
Pitcher --- H/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9 -- K/9 --- K/BB
Johnson -- 9.45 -- 2.17 --- .59 ----- 4.01 -- 1.85
Clemens -- 6.07 -- 2.51 -- .35 ----- 7.88 --- 3.14
Here, Clemens clearly outclasses Johnson. Clemens is actually more dominant now than he was earlier in his career, and he is probably the most dominant 42-year-old pitcher in the history of the game. Judging by these numbers, there is no physical reason why Clemens can't keep pitching for a number of years and keep accumulating numbers that may end once and for all the question of who was baseball's greatest pitcher.
In the meantime, win or lose, we should enjoy the opportunity to watch a truly great pitcher at the top of his game.
Pitcher --- H/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9 -- K/9 --- K/BB
Johnson -- 7.48 -- 2.07 --- .15 ----- 5.34 -- 2.57
Clemens -- 7.66 -- 2.91 -- .66 ----- 8.63 --- 2.97
Johnson gave up fewer hits and walks per nine innings, but Clemens struck out more hitters. Johnson's HR/9 ratio is infinitesimal, but he played much of his career during the dead ball era, so we should discount that number substantially (and perhaps some of his other numbers). Given that Johnson won 417 games and had a career ERA of 2.16, he might get the nod over Clemens (335 wins and career 3.13 ERA), but it's close.
Interestingly, Clemens fares better when we look at each pitcher's 21st season. Johnson's 21st season was his last; Clemens' is this year.
Pitcher --- H/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9 -- K/9 --- K/BB
Johnson -- 9.45 -- 2.17 --- .59 ----- 4.01 -- 1.85
Clemens -- 6.07 -- 2.51 -- .35 ----- 7.88 --- 3.14
Here, Clemens clearly outclasses Johnson. Clemens is actually more dominant now than he was earlier in his career, and he is probably the most dominant 42-year-old pitcher in the history of the game. Judging by these numbers, there is no physical reason why Clemens can't keep pitching for a number of years and keep accumulating numbers that may end once and for all the question of who was baseball's greatest pitcher.
In the meantime, win or lose, we should enjoy the opportunity to watch a truly great pitcher at the top of his game.
You're kidding, right?
Via William F. Yurasko, we see that Jim Bowden is proclaiming that the Nationals, as currently constituted, will play in the World Series:
"With no more player moves, we can win the World Series. ... I didn't say the division. I said the World Series."
Is he crazy or just posturing? Who knows? Maybe Bowden is trying to send the message that he's not desperate for any trades, thereby driving down the price other teams might demand. We hope that's the case, because we're convinced that the chances of the Nationals making the World Series with their current team are extraordinarily low. If that's not the case, well...
"With no more player moves, we can win the World Series. ... I didn't say the division. I said the World Series."
Is he crazy or just posturing? Who knows? Maybe Bowden is trying to send the message that he's not desperate for any trades, thereby driving down the price other teams might demand. We hope that's the case, because we're convinced that the chances of the Nationals making the World Series with their current team are extraordinarily low. If that's not the case, well...
Much Ado About Nothing?
As we suspected, Livan Hernandez's threat to have surgery and shut down his season seems to have been the product of frustration. Hernandez is now saying that he won't miss a start, so let's hope his recent tirade will all soon be foregotten.
Gammons
On ESPN Radio this morning Peter Gammons said that Jim Bowden is trying to trade for a pitcher, and has tried to get either A.J. Burnett or Jeff Weaver. Here are their YTD stats:
Pitcher -- K/9 -- BB/9 -- K/BB -- HR/9 -- H/9
Burnett -- 8.66 - 3.37 --- 2.55 --- .64 ----- 7.95
Weaver -- 5.97 - 2.19 --- 2.71 --- 1.27 ---- 8.81
Burnett is the better pitcher, but will also be more expensive. If the Nats got Burnett and didn't trade one of their better starters to get him, their rotation would be as follows:
Burnett
Patterson
Hernandez
Loaiza
Armas/Drese
That's a great rotation. We'd obviously be happy to get Burnett, but starting pitching hasn't been the Nationals' problem. We continue to believe that the bigger need is offensive punch in left field and third base and some consistent offense at shortstop.
Gammons pretty clearly thinks the Braves will win the division, but he said that the Nats could compete for the wild card once once Nick Johnson comes back. The Nationals are 4.5 games up in the wild card race, but we fear that it will take more than the return of Nick Johnson to keep us on top of that race.
Pitcher -- K/9 -- BB/9 -- K/BB -- HR/9 -- H/9
Burnett -- 8.66 - 3.37 --- 2.55 --- .64 ----- 7.95
Weaver -- 5.97 - 2.19 --- 2.71 --- 1.27 ---- 8.81
Burnett is the better pitcher, but will also be more expensive. If the Nats got Burnett and didn't trade one of their better starters to get him, their rotation would be as follows:
Burnett
Patterson
Hernandez
Loaiza
Armas/Drese
That's a great rotation. We'd obviously be happy to get Burnett, but starting pitching hasn't been the Nationals' problem. We continue to believe that the bigger need is offensive punch in left field and third base and some consistent offense at shortstop.
Gammons pretty clearly thinks the Braves will win the division, but he said that the Nats could compete for the wild card once once Nick Johnson comes back. The Nationals are 4.5 games up in the wild card race, but we fear that it will take more than the return of Nick Johnson to keep us on top of that race.
More Mental Errors
There is no shame to losing to Roy Oswalt and his 2.41 ERA. He is a premier pitcher, and when he's on it's tough to hit him. Having said that, the Nationals again made the kind of stupid mistakes that have turned from a winning team into a losing team. If Carlos Baerga and Jamey Carroll don't both a throw from Brad Wilkerson on Oswalt's bunt, Adam Everett is out at third instead of scoring. And if Esteban Loaiza doesn't let Oswalt single in the sixth, he denies the Astros another run.
Loaiza got little run support, but that's to be expected when you're facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. It's in those games that you have to minimize your mistakes because runs will be so scarce. The Nats didn't go that, and that's why they lost.
The Nationals have now lost 11 out of their last 15, and they've lost sole possession of first place. They remain 4.5 games up in the wild card race, but that gap is going to close fast if they don't turn themselves around soon.
Loaiza got little run support, but that's to be expected when you're facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. It's in those games that you have to minimize your mistakes because runs will be so scarce. The Nats didn't go that, and that's why they lost.
The Nationals have now lost 11 out of their last 15, and they've lost sole possession of first place. They remain 4.5 games up in the wild card race, but that gap is going to close fast if they don't turn themselves around soon.
You're not going to believe this...
The Washington Post reports that the dimensions in right- and left-center field at RFK are mismarked. Instead of the marked distance of 380 feet, the actual distance is closer to 395 feet, which would go a long way to explaining why RFK has such a depressing effect on home runs. Boswell and Barry Svrluga measured the distance to left center, found it to be about 395, and then were told by club officials to stop. The team then measured the distance using a laser. The article doesn't say whether distances to other portions of the outfield wall were measured, but we think they should.
You have to wonder about an organization that can't accurately measure it's outfield dimensions. Interestingly, instead of remarking the distance to the gaps, the team just moved the 380 signs to a spot at which they apparently are correct. That means that the Nationals are probably the only major league team without a distance marker to the gaps.
We have a feeling that the outfield wall dimensions will change in the offseason, because the team's current players are frustrated and this word of mouth will definitely make it harder to attract free agent hitters. For that reason alone we're confident that the team will make a change. RFK will probably never bea hitter's park, but it doesn't have to be such an extreme pitcher's park.
You have to wonder about an organization that can't accurately measure it's outfield dimensions. Interestingly, instead of remarking the distance to the gaps, the team just moved the 380 signs to a spot at which they apparently are correct. That means that the Nationals are probably the only major league team without a distance marker to the gaps.
We have a feeling that the outfield wall dimensions will change in the offseason, because the team's current players are frustrated and this word of mouth will definitely make it harder to attract free agent hitters. For that reason alone we're confident that the team will make a change. RFK will probably never bea hitter's park, but it doesn't have to be such an extreme pitcher's park.
Thursday, July 21, 2005
The Apocalypse is Upon Us
Mlb.com reports:
"Change of heart? Barry Larkin, the special assistant to the general manager, told MLB.com on Wednesday afternoon that he is thinking about making a comeback and playing for the Nationals. ... According to a baseball source, Larkin would be the everyday shortstop, and Guzman would remain on the bench and be a late-inning replacement on defense. ... Larkin admitted that he is not in baseball shape and has not seen live pitching since last September, when he was with the Reds."
It is a sad state of affairs when a 40-year-old retired shortstop who hasn't played baseball in almost a year is an upgrade over your 27-year-old starting shortstop, but, sadly, that's the world in which we live.
In 346 at bats in 2004 Larkin posted numbers of .352 OBP, .419 SLG, and .771 OPS, which on paper looks like a significant upgrade over Guzman's .502 OPS. Assuming that discounting Larkin's 2004 numbers for RFK and lack of play knocks 150 points off his OPS, he'd still beat Guzman by over 100 points, which is perhaps the best evidence that Guzman is not a major league player. Of course, that discount factor is highly speculative given that we have no evidence that Larkin can even put the bat on the ball anymore, at least on a consistent basis.
This whole thing strikes us a bit hare-brained, but we guess we'd accept it if foregoing significant money on a replacement shortstop meant spending significant money on upgrades in left and at third.
"Change of heart? Barry Larkin, the special assistant to the general manager, told MLB.com on Wednesday afternoon that he is thinking about making a comeback and playing for the Nationals. ... According to a baseball source, Larkin would be the everyday shortstop, and Guzman would remain on the bench and be a late-inning replacement on defense. ... Larkin admitted that he is not in baseball shape and has not seen live pitching since last September, when he was with the Reds."
It is a sad state of affairs when a 40-year-old retired shortstop who hasn't played baseball in almost a year is an upgrade over your 27-year-old starting shortstop, but, sadly, that's the world in which we live.
In 346 at bats in 2004 Larkin posted numbers of .352 OBP, .419 SLG, and .771 OPS, which on paper looks like a significant upgrade over Guzman's .502 OPS. Assuming that discounting Larkin's 2004 numbers for RFK and lack of play knocks 150 points off his OPS, he'd still beat Guzman by over 100 points, which is perhaps the best evidence that Guzman is not a major league player. Of course, that discount factor is highly speculative given that we have no evidence that Larkin can even put the bat on the ball anymore, at least on a consistent basis.
This whole thing strikes us a bit hare-brained, but we guess we'd accept it if foregoing significant money on a replacement shortstop meant spending significant money on upgrades in left and at third.
Brad Wilkerson: Falling Star?
The Nationals couldn't be faulted for assuming before the season started that Brad Wilkerson would be a star of their team for years to come. After all, Wilkerson had put up stellar and improving numbers for years. But this year Wilkerson has taken a big step backward:
Year --- OBP -- SLG -- OPS
2002 -- .370 -- .469 -- .839
2003 -- .380 -- .464 -- .844
2004 -- .374 -- .498 -- .872
2005 -- .370 -- .428 -- .798
What explains this decline?
Wilkerson's OBP has remained consistent from 2002 through this season, but his SLG has dropped dramatically. To get to the bottom of this (hopefully), we took Wilkerson's 2003 numbers (we didn't like the 2004 numbers because the Expos played so many games in San Juan) and broke them down into home and away numbers. To compare accurately the 2003 and 2005 numbers, we applied RFK's park effects to the 2003 home runs, triples, and doubles, and singles Wilkerson hit in Montreal and recalculated his slugging percentage.
That calculation yields a slugging percentage of .407. That's 57 points below his actual 2003 slugging percentage of .464. When we recalculate Wilkerson's 2003 OPS using this new SLG result, we get an OPS of .787, which is only 11 points lower than Wilkerson's actual OPS this year.
So, while the numbers suggest that Wilkerson's production has been declining, that's not really true when you do a little digging.
Year --- OBP -- SLG -- OPS
2002 -- .370 -- .469 -- .839
2003 -- .380 -- .464 -- .844
2004 -- .374 -- .498 -- .872
2005 -- .370 -- .428 -- .798
What explains this decline?
Wilkerson's OBP has remained consistent from 2002 through this season, but his SLG has dropped dramatically. To get to the bottom of this (hopefully), we took Wilkerson's 2003 numbers (we didn't like the 2004 numbers because the Expos played so many games in San Juan) and broke them down into home and away numbers. To compare accurately the 2003 and 2005 numbers, we applied RFK's park effects to the 2003 home runs, triples, and doubles, and singles Wilkerson hit in Montreal and recalculated his slugging percentage.
That calculation yields a slugging percentage of .407. That's 57 points below his actual 2003 slugging percentage of .464. When we recalculate Wilkerson's 2003 OPS using this new SLG result, we get an OPS of .787, which is only 11 points lower than Wilkerson's actual OPS this year.
So, while the numbers suggest that Wilkerson's production has been declining, that's not really true when you do a little digging.
"I'm taking my ball and going home"
It's hard to know what to make of Livan Hernandez' outburst following last night's game. He no doubt was frustrated at losing another game after pitching a quality start, and he was probably tired after slogging his way through a hot and humid night.
But Hernandez' apparent threat to have surgery immediately and shut down his season because of something someone in the organization did or said to him is way out of bounds. In nearly the same breath Hernandez said that he liked the organization and didn't want to let this team or his teammates down, so we hope Hernandez was just blowing off some steam. We suspect that that is the best explanation for the tirade, but if Hernandez does have surgery it's going to be much harder for the Nats to compete for the division title.
Let's hope that this was just another case of a player not being able to overcome his frustration just at the moment when an enterprising reporter put a microphone in his face.
But Hernandez' apparent threat to have surgery immediately and shut down his season because of something someone in the organization did or said to him is way out of bounds. In nearly the same breath Hernandez said that he liked the organization and didn't want to let this team or his teammates down, so we hope Hernandez was just blowing off some steam. We suspect that that is the best explanation for the tirade, but if Hernandez does have surgery it's going to be much harder for the Nats to compete for the division title.
Let's hope that this was just another case of a player not being able to overcome his frustration just at the moment when an enterprising reporter put a microphone in his face.
We've seen this movie before
Since the All-Star break (and in the few games leading up to the break) the Nationals have lost in such a consistent way that it's hard to say the wheels are coming off, but that's certainly the feeling one gets a day after another disappointing loss in which the Nats squandered a number of opportunities to win the game.
Had he been pitching against a better team, Livan Hernandez probably would have given up more than three runs. But, luckily, he was pitching against the Colorado Rockies, one of the worst teams in baseball and the league's worst road team. Hernandez gave up eight hits, two walks, and hit four batters in only seven innings. That's 14 baserunners in seven innings and still the Rockies could score only three runs. Two of them came when J.D. Closser, he of the anemic .379 slugging percentage, hit a home run in the top of the sixth.
It's hard, though, to blame this loss on pitching. Three runs over nine innings should win most games, but the Nationals aren't like most teams. The Nats don't score nearly as many runs as teams like the Atlanta Braves, who are averaging almost five runs per game. So, holding the opponent to three runs doesn't buy much peace of mind, especially lately. The Nationals left seven men on base, all of them in scoring position.
One of their best scoring opportunities came in the bottom of the eighth, when Jamey Carroll walked and then went to second on Jose Vidro's bunt. Unfortunately, neither Brad Wilkerson nor Jose Guillen could drive in Carroll. We'll say more later about the bunt, but the bottom of the eighth was a pretty good metaphor for the Nationals' play right now.
The Nats are only 1/2 game up on the Braves, and they'll have to play a whole lot better if they're going to maintain any lead in the National League East. If anyone had any doubts before last night, those doubts should be gone by now: the Nationals need more offense, and if they are going to compete for the division title their first priority in any trade should be acquiring big bats .
Had he been pitching against a better team, Livan Hernandez probably would have given up more than three runs. But, luckily, he was pitching against the Colorado Rockies, one of the worst teams in baseball and the league's worst road team. Hernandez gave up eight hits, two walks, and hit four batters in only seven innings. That's 14 baserunners in seven innings and still the Rockies could score only three runs. Two of them came when J.D. Closser, he of the anemic .379 slugging percentage, hit a home run in the top of the sixth.
It's hard, though, to blame this loss on pitching. Three runs over nine innings should win most games, but the Nationals aren't like most teams. The Nats don't score nearly as many runs as teams like the Atlanta Braves, who are averaging almost five runs per game. So, holding the opponent to three runs doesn't buy much peace of mind, especially lately. The Nationals left seven men on base, all of them in scoring position.
One of their best scoring opportunities came in the bottom of the eighth, when Jamey Carroll walked and then went to second on Jose Vidro's bunt. Unfortunately, neither Brad Wilkerson nor Jose Guillen could drive in Carroll. We'll say more later about the bunt, but the bottom of the eighth was a pretty good metaphor for the Nationals' play right now.
The Nats are only 1/2 game up on the Braves, and they'll have to play a whole lot better if they're going to maintain any lead in the National League East. If anyone had any doubts before last night, those doubts should be gone by now: the Nationals need more offense, and if they are going to compete for the division title their first priority in any trade should be acquiring big bats .
Wednesday, July 20, 2005
Trade Speculation
Nationals Farm Report has some interesting analysis regarding what the Nationals might be willing to trade and for what. As was stated in a comment today, Tampa Bay is a notoriously demanding and difficult team with which to deal, so we're a bit skeptical that Ryan Church will bring Julio Lugo and Danys Baez, but we'll see. We'd prefer a more aggressive deal that adds real offensive punch in left field or at third base. To do that, the Nationals will no doubt have to give up more than Ryan Church.
Oh, barf!
Dick Heller says this in today's Washington Times (http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20050720-120140-9145r.htm):
"So our newly beloved Washington Nationals have been skidding lately like D.C. drivers in an ice storm? So what, when you come right down to it? Let's face it: This team probably is not going to win the World Series and maybe not even the National League East, no matter what general manager Jim Bowden and manager Frank Robinson say. They know better than anyone else how much the Nats have overachieved for all those wonderful fans who awoke July 4 to find the first Washington team in 34 years with a 51/2-game lead in the division.
. . .
"But really, in the long run, it doesn't matter what happens on the field this season, unless Washington finds itself in a World Series for the first time since FDR was a White House rookie. The important thing, as stated in this space before Opening Day, is building a solid base for the future."
This kind of stuff drives us nuts. Sure, the Nationals have overachieved, and, yes, they shouldn't have this record given their runs scored/runs allowed differential. But, guess what, this is the world in which we live, and in this world the Nats are in first place. They therefore have an opportunity to do something in the playoffs this year if they play their cards right.
Rather than give Jim Bowden and company a pass as the trading deadline nears, better it is we say to hold his feet to the fire and tell him to produce a winner. As we said before (http://nationalsinterest.blogspot.com/2005/07/whats-at-stake.html), the Nats have the opportunity to turn themselves into a premier franchise in only one season. Why waste the opportunity?
"So our newly beloved Washington Nationals have been skidding lately like D.C. drivers in an ice storm? So what, when you come right down to it? Let's face it: This team probably is not going to win the World Series and maybe not even the National League East, no matter what general manager Jim Bowden and manager Frank Robinson say. They know better than anyone else how much the Nats have overachieved for all those wonderful fans who awoke July 4 to find the first Washington team in 34 years with a 51/2-game lead in the division.
. . .
"But really, in the long run, it doesn't matter what happens on the field this season, unless Washington finds itself in a World Series for the first time since FDR was a White House rookie. The important thing, as stated in this space before Opening Day, is building a solid base for the future."
This kind of stuff drives us nuts. Sure, the Nationals have overachieved, and, yes, they shouldn't have this record given their runs scored/runs allowed differential. But, guess what, this is the world in which we live, and in this world the Nats are in first place. They therefore have an opportunity to do something in the playoffs this year if they play their cards right.
Rather than give Jim Bowden and company a pass as the trading deadline nears, better it is we say to hold his feet to the fire and tell him to produce a winner. As we said before (http://nationalsinterest.blogspot.com/2005/07/whats-at-stake.html), the Nats have the opportunity to turn themselves into a premier franchise in only one season. Why waste the opportunity?
We hope it's true, but...
In a Washington Post story reporting that the Natonals have decided to bench Cristian Guzman, there is this:
"No longer content to give four at-bats per night to a hitter of historic futility, the Nationals must hope the mini-break succeeds in clearing Guzman's head and reviving his bat."
We hope that this is all it will take, but we doubt it. Anyone who has seen Guzman hit recently knows that he's totally overmatched and goes to the plate hoping merely to slap at the ball. Even if Guzman manages to put the bat on the ball, the result is a weak grounder or fly ball; we rarely see him drive the ball. The Nationals are hoping that Guzman is in a slump, but a .228 OBP, .274 SLG, and .502 OPS in 270 at bats is not merely a slump, it's a tragedy.
"No longer content to give four at-bats per night to a hitter of historic futility, the Nationals must hope the mini-break succeeds in clearing Guzman's head and reviving his bat."
We hope that this is all it will take, but we doubt it. Anyone who has seen Guzman hit recently knows that he's totally overmatched and goes to the plate hoping merely to slap at the ball. Even if Guzman manages to put the bat on the ball, the result is a weak grounder or fly ball; we rarely see him drive the ball. The Nationals are hoping that Guzman is in a slump, but a .228 OBP, .274 SLG, and .502 OPS in 270 at bats is not merely a slump, it's a tragedy.
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
How about this guy?
While we're thinking of acquiring Julio Lugo, why not consider trading for Ken Griffey (.365 OBP, .540 SLG, .905 OPS in 1995)? Yes, he's injury prone, but the Reds will pay a lot of his salary. And so long as we're thinking trade, why not strive for more than an average shortstop?
John Patterson: Stopper
John Patterson gave the Nationals exactly what they needed: eight innings of scoreless pitching. He was pretty near flawless, getting in trouble only in the fifth, when Patterson walked Rockies pitcher Shawn Chacon to load the bases with two out. But Patterson struck out Cory Sullivan to end the threat. From there it was easy for Patterson, who was thoroughly dominating once again, striking out eight, walking two, and facing only 29 batters over eight innings.
We said recently that Patterson needed to find a way to pitch deeper into games (http://nationalsinterest.blogspot.com/2005/07/chink-in-armor.html), and he did just that tonight. By pitching into the eighth inning, Patterson gave the bullpen a rest and handed the ball directly to the Nationals' most effective reliever--Chad Cordero--bypassing the relievers who have struggled recently. Patterson showed himself to be every bit of the number one starter we all think he can become.
The Nationals didn't need much scoring, but they got four runs anyway. Frank Robinson juggled the lineup, sitting Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla. As bad as Jamey Carroll is as a starter, he's better than Cristian Guzman, and he was 2-4 with a RBI. Carlos Baerga was Castilla's replacement, proving once and for all that the Nationals have a gaping hole at third base. Baerga was 1-3. It's hard to say much about the new Nationals order, because to tell the truth it didn't look that much different than before. Of course, not having to watch Guzman either flail away at a third strike or bunt into a double play was a welcome change.
This was a big win at a time when the Nationals badly needed one. And it was a big-time pitching performance by John Patterson, who is quickly becoming the Nationals most valuable starter.
We said recently that Patterson needed to find a way to pitch deeper into games (http://nationalsinterest.blogspot.com/2005/07/chink-in-armor.html), and he did just that tonight. By pitching into the eighth inning, Patterson gave the bullpen a rest and handed the ball directly to the Nationals' most effective reliever--Chad Cordero--bypassing the relievers who have struggled recently. Patterson showed himself to be every bit of the number one starter we all think he can become.
The Nationals didn't need much scoring, but they got four runs anyway. Frank Robinson juggled the lineup, sitting Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla. As bad as Jamey Carroll is as a starter, he's better than Cristian Guzman, and he was 2-4 with a RBI. Carlos Baerga was Castilla's replacement, proving once and for all that the Nationals have a gaping hole at third base. Baerga was 1-3. It's hard to say much about the new Nationals order, because to tell the truth it didn't look that much different than before. Of course, not having to watch Guzman either flail away at a third strike or bunt into a double play was a welcome change.
This was a big win at a time when the Nationals badly needed one. And it was a big-time pitching performance by John Patterson, who is quickly becoming the Nationals most valuable starter.
How about this guy?
While we're looking at retired forty-something shortstops, how about going after Aubrey Huff (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/huffau01.shtml)? Yes, his first half has been disappointing, but maybe that will reduce the price.
Not a Good Sign
You know things are bad when your GM decides to ask a 41-year old former shortstop to come out of retirement and replace you. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2111313
Potential Trade?
The Washington Post reports that the Nationals are thinking of a trade for two Devil Rays:
"The Nationals continue to ask the Devil Rays about a deal that might include Tampa closer Danys Baez, but a source said the Nationals would also like to acquire infielder Julio Lugo, who is hitting .293 as the everyday shortstop."
There are three potential problems with this deal, if it's being considered. First, trading for Baez would definitely upgrade the bullpen, but we're worried that the price would be too high. Don't get us wrong, we agree that the Nats should improve their bullpen, but the Devil Rays are likely to demand a high price for Baez. Trading a closer is one of the best ways for a bad team like the Rays to improve themselves quickly. We think there are cheaper ways for the Nationals to get the bullpen help they need.
Second, Lugo is an average player. Only the Nationals could improve their OPS at shortstop more than 200 points merely by trading for an average player like Lugo. That's how bad Cristian Guzman is. Anyway, we expect that Lugo's .736 OPS would drop at RFK, so the improvement would be less than advertised.
Third, we think that this is more evidence that Jim Bowden is aiming too low. Instead of trading for average players like Lugo, how about going after impact players like Adam Dunn, Mike Cameron, Mike Sweeney, Alfonso Soriano, or Jason Giambi? All of these players would give the Nationals what they badly need--significant offense--and that's what the Nationals need to compete with the Braves down the stretch. Meanwhile, some of these players--like Jason Giambi (the Yankees appear willing to pay most of his contract)--would come at a significant discount.
The Nationals can take two paths. They can be an aggressive buyer in trades that dramatically improve the team's future or they can continue to tread water by tinkering at the margins of the lineup. We hope that someone soon knocks some sense into Bowden and that he wakes up realizing that he can aspire to more than what a small market GM can attain.
"The Nationals continue to ask the Devil Rays about a deal that might include Tampa closer Danys Baez, but a source said the Nationals would also like to acquire infielder Julio Lugo, who is hitting .293 as the everyday shortstop."
There are three potential problems with this deal, if it's being considered. First, trading for Baez would definitely upgrade the bullpen, but we're worried that the price would be too high. Don't get us wrong, we agree that the Nats should improve their bullpen, but the Devil Rays are likely to demand a high price for Baez. Trading a closer is one of the best ways for a bad team like the Rays to improve themselves quickly. We think there are cheaper ways for the Nationals to get the bullpen help they need.
Second, Lugo is an average player. Only the Nationals could improve their OPS at shortstop more than 200 points merely by trading for an average player like Lugo. That's how bad Cristian Guzman is. Anyway, we expect that Lugo's .736 OPS would drop at RFK, so the improvement would be less than advertised.
Third, we think that this is more evidence that Jim Bowden is aiming too low. Instead of trading for average players like Lugo, how about going after impact players like Adam Dunn, Mike Cameron, Mike Sweeney, Alfonso Soriano, or Jason Giambi? All of these players would give the Nationals what they badly need--significant offense--and that's what the Nationals need to compete with the Braves down the stretch. Meanwhile, some of these players--like Jason Giambi (the Yankees appear willing to pay most of his contract)--would come at a significant discount.
The Nationals can take two paths. They can be an aggressive buyer in trades that dramatically improve the team's future or they can continue to tread water by tinkering at the margins of the lineup. We hope that someone soon knocks some sense into Bowden and that he wakes up realizing that he can aspire to more than what a small market GM can attain.
A Salvage Project No More
There is this from Frank Robinson about Cristian Guzman in today's Washington Post:
"'I have to try to get this guy whole for the rest of the year,'" Robinson said. "To talk about, now, taking him out of the lineup for a few days or a week or whatever -- what damage might that do to him for the rest of the year?'"
Um, Frank, maybe we should be thinking about the damage Guzman is doing to your lineup as opposed to the damage removing him from the lineup would do to him. We're quite sure that even the most cursory analysis would demonstrate that the damage to the lineup far outweighs any potential damage to Guzman, who is arguably the worst starting shortstop in major league baseball.
And then there is this from Jim Bowden: "'We have to solve Guzman,'" Bowden said. "'Solving him isn't going to be trading him. It isn't going to be sending him out. Solving him means we got to get his bat going somehow. Somehow.'"
Um, Jim, there isn't anybody who would trade for Guzman now. We realize that Bowden might want to salvage something from the disastrous four-year, $16.8 million contract he signed with Guzman, but we are past that point now. 269 at bats later, it is clear that Guzman is not a major league shortstop. He might improve after an extended trip to the minors during which he can try to remake his swing, but the Nationals don't have the luxury of using one of their regular lineup spots during a penant race to give Guzman that opportunity at the major league level.
"'I have to try to get this guy whole for the rest of the year,'" Robinson said. "To talk about, now, taking him out of the lineup for a few days or a week or whatever -- what damage might that do to him for the rest of the year?'"
Um, Frank, maybe we should be thinking about the damage Guzman is doing to your lineup as opposed to the damage removing him from the lineup would do to him. We're quite sure that even the most cursory analysis would demonstrate that the damage to the lineup far outweighs any potential damage to Guzman, who is arguably the worst starting shortstop in major league baseball.
And then there is this from Jim Bowden: "'We have to solve Guzman,'" Bowden said. "'Solving him isn't going to be trading him. It isn't going to be sending him out. Solving him means we got to get his bat going somehow. Somehow.'"
Um, Jim, there isn't anybody who would trade for Guzman now. We realize that Bowden might want to salvage something from the disastrous four-year, $16.8 million contract he signed with Guzman, but we are past that point now. 269 at bats later, it is clear that Guzman is not a major league shortstop. He might improve after an extended trip to the minors during which he can try to remake his swing, but the Nationals don't have the luxury of using one of their regular lineup spots during a penant race to give Guzman that opportunity at the major league level.
A Good Team Gone Bad
Well, this used to be a good team. Now, the Nationals are just not very good. We've known about the lack of offense and the shaky bullpen, but the team has begun to play shaky defense as well. Vinny Castilla's error last night in the ninth inning that gave Colorado the win was unforgivable. If Castilla makes the routine play, the Nats go to the bottom of ninth tied, not behind by one. And what was Preston Wilson doing in the top of the fifth? He managed to turn a routine fly ball into a run-scoring triple, misplaying the ball about as badly as anyone could. If that wasn't bad enough, Cristian Guzman's error in the top of the sixth permitted Colorado to score another run. That's three runs the Rockies never should have scored, and without them this game is an easy win for the Nationals.
While we're on the subject of Guzman, no rational person would continue to play him every day. We knew that Guzman can't hit, but now he can't even bunt. Last night he failed TWICE to bunt a runner to second. Worse, Guzman's first attempt resulted in a double play, at least in part because he failed to run out the play. He apparently thought that B.K. Kim would catch his pop fly. Instead, Kim let the ball drop, and Colorado had an easy double play.
Pretty much everything is going wrong for the Nationals right now. The Nationals have lost 9 of 12, and many of those losses were, like last night's loss, a give-away of a game that the team should have won.
But, before we panic, let's remember that this is a long season, and we knew that the team would hit more than one rough patch in the second half. Well, the rough patch is here. The team needs to get back on track, and the Rockies are just the team to help them do it. The Rockies have the worst road record in baseball and are a bad baseball team, so let's hope the Nats can take the series.
Let us state the obvious: this rough patch demonstrates that the Nationals are not going to play in the second half like they played in the first half. Unfortunately, no team can win their one-run games at the same pace the Nationals won them in the first half. The only way the Nationals can win the National League East is to make the trades they desperately need to fill some of the gaping holes in their lineup. Now is the time for Jim Bowden to earn his pay.
While we're on the subject of Guzman, no rational person would continue to play him every day. We knew that Guzman can't hit, but now he can't even bunt. Last night he failed TWICE to bunt a runner to second. Worse, Guzman's first attempt resulted in a double play, at least in part because he failed to run out the play. He apparently thought that B.K. Kim would catch his pop fly. Instead, Kim let the ball drop, and Colorado had an easy double play.
Pretty much everything is going wrong for the Nationals right now. The Nationals have lost 9 of 12, and many of those losses were, like last night's loss, a give-away of a game that the team should have won.
But, before we panic, let's remember that this is a long season, and we knew that the team would hit more than one rough patch in the second half. Well, the rough patch is here. The team needs to get back on track, and the Rockies are just the team to help them do it. The Rockies have the worst road record in baseball and are a bad baseball team, so let's hope the Nats can take the series.
Let us state the obvious: this rough patch demonstrates that the Nationals are not going to play in the second half like they played in the first half. Unfortunately, no team can win their one-run games at the same pace the Nationals won them in the first half. The only way the Nationals can win the National League East is to make the trades they desperately need to fill some of the gaping holes in their lineup. Now is the time for Jim Bowden to earn his pay.
Monday, July 18, 2005
Prisoners' Dilemma
Sunday's game against the Brewers highlighted a dilemma the Nationals, as they are now constituted, face any time a starting pitcher fares badly early in a game.
We start with the proposition that the Nationals are not likely to score a lot of runs. When the starter gets in trouble early, Frank Robinson, like all managers, must decide whether to pull the pitcher. But, unlike other managers, Robinson does not have the luxury of assuming that his team can come back from a significant deficit. In fact, based on the team's performance to date, Robinson has to assume that his team cannot make up a significant deficit and must therefore keep the game close if the Nats are to have any chance of winning.
So, what does Robinson do when it becomes obvious in the first and third innings that Ryan Drese's sinker isn't sinking? If he takes the pitcher out immediately, he places a big strain on his bullpen. And he can't do that every time a starter runs into trouble because pretty soon he won't have much of a relief core. On the other hand, if he stays with the pitcher he risks being effectively out of the game before the fourth inning.
On Sunday, Robinson stayed with Drese as long as he could, thinking, perhaps, that the risk had lessened because Drese has reached the bottom of the order. But Chad Moeller blew up that risk analysis by drilling a lackluster Drese pitch into center, scoring Geoff Jenkins and putting Milwaukee up 5-1. Could the Nats come back? Yes, they could, but it wasn't likely.
The problem is that Robinson doesn't have the same weapons other managers have when he faces this situation. He can't expand the 25-man roster to give him more relief options and increasing the number of pitchers on this roster would only place an undue strain on his position players. In the end, Robinson has to preserve his bullpen, even though doing so means he must stay with starters past the point from which his team likely can come back. In other words, lacking real offensive power, Robinson is caught in a dilemma to which there is no good answer and that is different from what most managers face.
This is more evidence both that Robinson is doing a great job under difficult circumstances and that no rational person would design a team to look like this.
We start with the proposition that the Nationals are not likely to score a lot of runs. When the starter gets in trouble early, Frank Robinson, like all managers, must decide whether to pull the pitcher. But, unlike other managers, Robinson does not have the luxury of assuming that his team can come back from a significant deficit. In fact, based on the team's performance to date, Robinson has to assume that his team cannot make up a significant deficit and must therefore keep the game close if the Nats are to have any chance of winning.
So, what does Robinson do when it becomes obvious in the first and third innings that Ryan Drese's sinker isn't sinking? If he takes the pitcher out immediately, he places a big strain on his bullpen. And he can't do that every time a starter runs into trouble because pretty soon he won't have much of a relief core. On the other hand, if he stays with the pitcher he risks being effectively out of the game before the fourth inning.
On Sunday, Robinson stayed with Drese as long as he could, thinking, perhaps, that the risk had lessened because Drese has reached the bottom of the order. But Chad Moeller blew up that risk analysis by drilling a lackluster Drese pitch into center, scoring Geoff Jenkins and putting Milwaukee up 5-1. Could the Nats come back? Yes, they could, but it wasn't likely.
The problem is that Robinson doesn't have the same weapons other managers have when he faces this situation. He can't expand the 25-man roster to give him more relief options and increasing the number of pitchers on this roster would only place an undue strain on his position players. In the end, Robinson has to preserve his bullpen, even though doing so means he must stay with starters past the point from which his team likely can come back. In other words, lacking real offensive power, Robinson is caught in a dilemma to which there is no good answer and that is different from what most managers face.
This is more evidence both that Robinson is doing a great job under difficult circumstances and that no rational person would design a team to look like this.
A Team "Built" for What?
We've heard a lot about how the Nationals are "built" for a certain type of play--good pitching, good defense, playing for individual runs, all for the purpose of winning low-scoring games. It's true that this accurately describes what is the only way the team that now occupies the Nationals' locker room can win. But saying that this is how the Nationals are "built" is misleading and gives the false impression that the Nationals can continue to win based on this purported grand design.
The Nationals basically are a team that was built in Montreal. As the Expos, they were once a very different team--young, talented, and cheap. The Expos had, among other things, one of the best players in the game--Vladimir Guerrero--and a host of good pitchers. Alas, much of what the Expos had was lost in a fire sale organized by Omar Minaya, now GM of the New York Mets. What was left was a team that looked somewhat like the Nationals do now--not a lot of power, not a lot of speed, and cheap.
Jim Bowden has done a pretty good job tinkering with the team that was bequethed to him. Most significantly, he picked up Jose Guillen for next to nothing from the Angels, and Guillen is now arguably the Nats' MVP. But this is still basically the team that left Montreal for the trip south to D.C.
Frank Robinson has done a magnificent job turning that team into a winner. He has found some way to get the most out of players who had unrealized promise--Jose Guillen, Nick Johnson, and John Patterson--and those who had above average skills--Brad Wilkerson and Livan Hernandez.
But this team is not "built" to win this way. We are watching a team that wasn't designed to look like this; rather, we are seeing a club that was destroyed by neglect and bad decisions and that is now trying to make its way back to the upper echelon of baseball teams. To put it bluntly, the Expos were built to be sold.
Robinson has done the best he could with what he had, and he has done the unimaginable--he has taken a team that most thought would be a basement dweller and made it into one of the best teams in the National League. What Jim Bowden must do now is "build" a team that is much more than it is now. To build a consistent winner, Bowden must acquire the talent the team's announcers are so proud to say the Nationals lack--power. The Nationals will never be a premier team when they are last in Major League Baseball in home runs.
Only after the transactions that precede the trade deadline and that follow the season will we be able to say anything about how the Nationals are "built." Until then, Bowden and Robinson must do the best with what they have, and they must capitalize on what is their first opportunity to acquire significant talent for the Washington Nationals--the impending trade deadline.
The Nationals basically are a team that was built in Montreal. As the Expos, they were once a very different team--young, talented, and cheap. The Expos had, among other things, one of the best players in the game--Vladimir Guerrero--and a host of good pitchers. Alas, much of what the Expos had was lost in a fire sale organized by Omar Minaya, now GM of the New York Mets. What was left was a team that looked somewhat like the Nationals do now--not a lot of power, not a lot of speed, and cheap.
Jim Bowden has done a pretty good job tinkering with the team that was bequethed to him. Most significantly, he picked up Jose Guillen for next to nothing from the Angels, and Guillen is now arguably the Nats' MVP. But this is still basically the team that left Montreal for the trip south to D.C.
Frank Robinson has done a magnificent job turning that team into a winner. He has found some way to get the most out of players who had unrealized promise--Jose Guillen, Nick Johnson, and John Patterson--and those who had above average skills--Brad Wilkerson and Livan Hernandez.
But this team is not "built" to win this way. We are watching a team that wasn't designed to look like this; rather, we are seeing a club that was destroyed by neglect and bad decisions and that is now trying to make its way back to the upper echelon of baseball teams. To put it bluntly, the Expos were built to be sold.
Robinson has done the best he could with what he had, and he has done the unimaginable--he has taken a team that most thought would be a basement dweller and made it into one of the best teams in the National League. What Jim Bowden must do now is "build" a team that is much more than it is now. To build a consistent winner, Bowden must acquire the talent the team's announcers are so proud to say the Nationals lack--power. The Nationals will never be a premier team when they are last in Major League Baseball in home runs.
Only after the transactions that precede the trade deadline and that follow the season will we be able to say anything about how the Nationals are "built." Until then, Bowden and Robinson must do the best with what they have, and they must capitalize on what is their first opportunity to acquire significant talent for the Washington Nationals--the impending trade deadline.
Sunday, July 17, 2005
Jose Guillen, Statistical Anomaly
We've heard some of our friends attribute Jose Guillen's 18 road home runs and 1 home home run (sorry, but we couldn't resist) to RFK's park effects. Some of this differential clearly is attributable to RFK's dampening effect on home runs, but only some of it. So far this year the home runs hit at RFK amount to only about 55% of those hit in all other stadiums. Thus, given that Guillen has hit 18 home runs on the road, we would have expected him to hit about 10 home runs at RFK. We realize that this is a simplified calculation, but you get the point.
Why then has Guillen hit only 1 home run at RFK? Who knows? Some of it likely is just dumb luck, and there are probably one hundred other reasons why, most of which we can't possibly understand. We can understand one thing, however: Guillen's 18/1 differential is about as severe a statistical anomaly we will probably ever find in the realm of park effects on home runs.
Why then has Guillen hit only 1 home run at RFK? Who knows? Some of it likely is just dumb luck, and there are probably one hundred other reasons why, most of which we can't possibly understand. We can understand one thing, however: Guillen's 18/1 differential is about as severe a statistical anomaly we will probably ever find in the realm of park effects on home runs.
A Very Ugly Loss
We can't do any better than this?
The Nationals are up 1-0 in the bottom of the first on a Jose Guillen homer, and with two outs and a man on second Jose Vidro lets the most routine of ground balls go through his legs? Ryan Drese then serves one into Geoff Jenkin's wheelhouse for a double and two RBIs? If Vidro makes the play or Drese pitches down and on the outside corner the Nats are out of the inning, up 1-0. Instead, they're down 2-1, and those two runs would prove to be the difference in the game.
We realize that the Nats have some excuses. The umpiring was bad, for one. With two outs and a man on third in the bottom of the third inning, Russ Branyan couldn't check his swing on what should have been the third strike. But third-base umpire Paul Schreiber, he of Friday's non-balk balk call, ruled that Branyan didn't swing. The replay showed that he clearly did swing, and Branyan appeared to be laughing about it on first after he singled in Lyle Overbay to put the Brewers up 4-1. You can argue that if we take away this one run and the two runs that scored in the bottom of the first after Vidro's error the Nats win the game, but that's the complaint of a team that can't take care of its own business.
With men on first and second, the Nats were pretty clearly on the ropes because of their anemic offense. But Frank Robinson could be forgiven for leaving Drese in, despite his obvious inability to get his sinker down, to face Chad Moeller, he of the .629 OPS. Unfortunately, Drese served up another high ball and Moeller laced it into center, scoring Jenkins and putting Milwaukee up 5-1.
At that point the game was likely over because the probability of the Nationals scoring another five runs was pretty low. The Nats had some scoring opportunities, like in the top of the seventh when Brian Schneider doubled home Jose Guillen and Preston Wilson. With Cristian Guzman due up, Robinson asked Carlos Baerga to drive in Schneider, but Baerga popped up to end the inning. And Jose Guillen came up in the top of the eighth with two outs and Vidro on first and worked the count to 3-0. The Nats needed baserunners, and if Guillen walked they would have brought the winning run to the plate in the form of Preston Wilson. Unfortunately, Guillen swung at a pitch that appeared to be a ball and was at least a bad pitch to hit. He flied out to right, which should serve as a cautionary tale for all of us who ask why managers give good hitters the take sign on 3-0 counts. Anyway, with Derrick Turnbow coming in to close and the Brewers up 5-3, the game was effectively over, and that's exactly how it ended.
This was a tough loss because it was a winnable game the Nationals could have used to go 2 1/2 games up on the Braves, who were stomped on by Pedro Martinez and the Mets. We've been having to say this too much recently, but this was another wasted opportunity for the Nationals in a game they may come to regret down the stretch.
The Nationals are up 1-0 in the bottom of the first on a Jose Guillen homer, and with two outs and a man on second Jose Vidro lets the most routine of ground balls go through his legs? Ryan Drese then serves one into Geoff Jenkin's wheelhouse for a double and two RBIs? If Vidro makes the play or Drese pitches down and on the outside corner the Nats are out of the inning, up 1-0. Instead, they're down 2-1, and those two runs would prove to be the difference in the game.
We realize that the Nats have some excuses. The umpiring was bad, for one. With two outs and a man on third in the bottom of the third inning, Russ Branyan couldn't check his swing on what should have been the third strike. But third-base umpire Paul Schreiber, he of Friday's non-balk balk call, ruled that Branyan didn't swing. The replay showed that he clearly did swing, and Branyan appeared to be laughing about it on first after he singled in Lyle Overbay to put the Brewers up 4-1. You can argue that if we take away this one run and the two runs that scored in the bottom of the first after Vidro's error the Nats win the game, but that's the complaint of a team that can't take care of its own business.
With men on first and second, the Nats were pretty clearly on the ropes because of their anemic offense. But Frank Robinson could be forgiven for leaving Drese in, despite his obvious inability to get his sinker down, to face Chad Moeller, he of the .629 OPS. Unfortunately, Drese served up another high ball and Moeller laced it into center, scoring Jenkins and putting Milwaukee up 5-1.
At that point the game was likely over because the probability of the Nationals scoring another five runs was pretty low. The Nats had some scoring opportunities, like in the top of the seventh when Brian Schneider doubled home Jose Guillen and Preston Wilson. With Cristian Guzman due up, Robinson asked Carlos Baerga to drive in Schneider, but Baerga popped up to end the inning. And Jose Guillen came up in the top of the eighth with two outs and Vidro on first and worked the count to 3-0. The Nats needed baserunners, and if Guillen walked they would have brought the winning run to the plate in the form of Preston Wilson. Unfortunately, Guillen swung at a pitch that appeared to be a ball and was at least a bad pitch to hit. He flied out to right, which should serve as a cautionary tale for all of us who ask why managers give good hitters the take sign on 3-0 counts. Anyway, with Derrick Turnbow coming in to close and the Brewers up 5-3, the game was effectively over, and that's exactly how it ended.
This was a tough loss because it was a winnable game the Nationals could have used to go 2 1/2 games up on the Braves, who were stomped on by Pedro Martinez and the Mets. We've been having to say this too much recently, but this was another wasted opportunity for the Nationals in a game they may come to regret down the stretch.
A Very Welcome Win
The Nationals snapped their four-game losing streak last night by beating Milwaukee 5-3. The Nats were down 2-1 after two innings, but scored one in the fourth on Vinny Castilla's second double (that scored Preston Wilson for the second time) and one in the sixth on Jose Vidro's fifth homer of the season. When the Brewers closed to within one when Geoff Jenkins scored on an Esteban Loaiza wild pitch, the game was beginning to look very much like recent games when the Nats blow an early lead, give up late runs, and fail to score in the late innings.
But this game was different. With two out and men on second and third, the Brewers decided to pitch to Jose Guillen with first base open, rather than walk him and take their chances with Preston Wilson. That was a bad decision. Guillen singled in both Carlos Baerga and Ryan Church to give the Nationals a 5-3 lead. Wilson then struck out swinging. Gary Majewski, Mike Stanton, and Chad Cordero shut down the Brewers in the seventh, eighth, and ninth, respectively, to give the Nationals a win they badly needed.
This was a very big win. Had the Nationals lost, the Braves, who beat the Mets 3-0, would have closed to 1/2 game. But the Nats didn't let that happen, and the fact that they're still 1 1/2 games up after losing four in a row and seven out of their last ten is a pretty good achievement.
One last comment. Frank Robinson started Marlon Byrd in place of Ryan Church, presumably because Robinson wanted to platoon the two and play Byrd against Chris Capuano, a lefty. As we've said before, we think a Byrd/Church platoon is a bad idea. Church is hitting much better than Byrd against lefties. Church's stats against lefties are fantastic (.407 OBP, .625 SLG, 1.032 OPS) and actually are better than his stats against righties (.378 OBP, .535 SLG, .913 OPS). Byrd's stats against lefties are pretty bad (.338 OBP, .387 SLG, .725 OPS). Yes, we realize that Church has only 24 at bats against lefties, but given his early success why not play him until he shows he can't hit them? As for playing against righties, there is no argument that Byrd should start over Church because Byrd's stats against right handers are simply awful (.283 OBP, .250 SLG, .533 OPS). Until the Nationals get a better option in the outfield, Ryan Church should be the regular starter.
But this game was different. With two out and men on second and third, the Brewers decided to pitch to Jose Guillen with first base open, rather than walk him and take their chances with Preston Wilson. That was a bad decision. Guillen singled in both Carlos Baerga and Ryan Church to give the Nationals a 5-3 lead. Wilson then struck out swinging. Gary Majewski, Mike Stanton, and Chad Cordero shut down the Brewers in the seventh, eighth, and ninth, respectively, to give the Nationals a win they badly needed.
This was a very big win. Had the Nationals lost, the Braves, who beat the Mets 3-0, would have closed to 1/2 game. But the Nats didn't let that happen, and the fact that they're still 1 1/2 games up after losing four in a row and seven out of their last ten is a pretty good achievement.
One last comment. Frank Robinson started Marlon Byrd in place of Ryan Church, presumably because Robinson wanted to platoon the two and play Byrd against Chris Capuano, a lefty. As we've said before, we think a Byrd/Church platoon is a bad idea. Church is hitting much better than Byrd against lefties. Church's stats against lefties are fantastic (.407 OBP, .625 SLG, 1.032 OPS) and actually are better than his stats against righties (.378 OBP, .535 SLG, .913 OPS). Byrd's stats against lefties are pretty bad (.338 OBP, .387 SLG, .725 OPS). Yes, we realize that Church has only 24 at bats against lefties, but given his early success why not play him until he shows he can't hit them? As for playing against righties, there is no argument that Byrd should start over Church because Byrd's stats against right handers are simply awful (.283 OBP, .250 SLG, .533 OPS). Until the Nationals get a better option in the outfield, Ryan Church should be the regular starter.
Saturday, July 16, 2005
One more point on the lineup hole
Because the Nationals don't hit many homeruns--they're last in the National League--they depend on sustained rallies more than other teams. That's another reason why the poor production from the 6-8 spots is problematic. When other teams--like the Brewers last night--can win late in a game with a homerun rather than a rally, the Nats tend to depend on rallies to score. Until they improve the production of the bottom of their order, they will continue to be at a competitive disadvantage.
There's a hole in my lineup!
We all know that the Nats have had problems scoring runs, especially late in games. Well, when the Nationals play the Brewers tonight, think about this comparison between the 6th, 7th, and 8th place hitters in each lineup:
Nationals
Castilla ---- .334 OBP -- .397 SLG -- .732 OPS
Schneider -- .322 OBP -- .409 SLG -- .730 OPS
Guzman --- .233 OBP -- .284 SLG -- .516 OPS
Brewers
Hall ----- .324 OBP -- .507 SLG -- .832 OPS
Branyan -- .380 OBP -- .513 SLG -- .893 OPS
Moeller -- .267 OBP -- .361 SLG -- .628 OPS
The Nationals don't have much offense late in the batting order, and, when compared to the Brewers' lineup, they start 310 OPS points behind the Brewers' 6-8 hitters. This means the Nats will have fewer sustained rallies than teams like the Brewers and even fewer than the elite teams who, unlike the Brewers, don't sport a player--Moeller--who can no longer hit major league pitching.
Oh, and one other thing. Compare Guzman's OPS to that of tonight's starting pitcher--Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza's OPS is .556, 50 points higher than Guzman's! We vote for batting Loaiza 8th and Guzman 9th, and then shipping Guzman to the minors after the game.
Nationals
Castilla ---- .334 OBP -- .397 SLG -- .732 OPS
Schneider -- .322 OBP -- .409 SLG -- .730 OPS
Guzman --- .233 OBP -- .284 SLG -- .516 OPS
Brewers
Hall ----- .324 OBP -- .507 SLG -- .832 OPS
Branyan -- .380 OBP -- .513 SLG -- .893 OPS
Moeller -- .267 OBP -- .361 SLG -- .628 OPS
The Nationals don't have much offense late in the batting order, and, when compared to the Brewers' lineup, they start 310 OPS points behind the Brewers' 6-8 hitters. This means the Nats will have fewer sustained rallies than teams like the Brewers and even fewer than the elite teams who, unlike the Brewers, don't sport a player--Moeller--who can no longer hit major league pitching.
Oh, and one other thing. Compare Guzman's OPS to that of tonight's starting pitcher--Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza's OPS is .556, 50 points higher than Guzman's! We vote for batting Loaiza 8th and Guzman 9th, and then shipping Guzman to the minors after the game.
More of the same
The Nationals have settled into a pattern: score a few runs early behind a strong starting pitching performance, then waste that performance by giving up late runs and by failing to score late in the game.
The Nationals lost 4-3 in the bottom of the 10th when Mike Stanton balked home the winning run. Luis Ayala started the 10th and once again was completely ineffective. Chris Magruder led off with a double, and Brady Clark sacrificed him to third. Ayala then intentionally walked Ricky Weeks and was done for the night. Stanton then came in and appeared to pick off Weeks for the second out, but first base umpire Paul Schrieber ruled that Stanton had made a move toward home before throwing to first and had therefore balked. Magruder scored and the game was over.
The Nationals scored two in the first (one on a Brad Wilkerson homer) and one in the fifth (on a Preston Wilson double). Milwaukee scored two in the first and was down 3-2 in the fifth. The Nats had some opportunities to pull away, but couldn't. They had men on first and third with one out in the 7th, but Jose Guillen grounded into a double play. And they had a man on third with one out in the 8th, but Vinny Castilla flied out to shallow right and Wilson was thrown out trying to tag up from third.
When Carlos Lee homered in the 8th to tie the game, every fan probably had the feeling that we were watching the same bad movie all over again. So true. In the next two innings the Nats went out 1, 2, 3, never mounting an offensive charge.
The sad truths are that the Nats' bullpen (other than Cordero) isn't as good as we thought it was and their hitting is as bad as the last place standing in runs scored reflects. To put a finer point on it, you know your lineup needs improvement when your 8th place hitter is hitting only 15 points higher than your pitcher. To put an even finer point on it, we don't know why Frank Robinson keeps Cristian Guzman in the starting lineup. The rational thing to do at this point is send him to the minors to see whether he can work out his hitting problems. He is simply not a major league hitter.
The Nats now are only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Braves, and, while we shouldn't let this losing streak overwhelm us because the Nats aren't playing at full strength, it's pretty clear that they need offensive and bullpen help if they are to compete to win the division down the stretch.
The Nationals lost 4-3 in the bottom of the 10th when Mike Stanton balked home the winning run. Luis Ayala started the 10th and once again was completely ineffective. Chris Magruder led off with a double, and Brady Clark sacrificed him to third. Ayala then intentionally walked Ricky Weeks and was done for the night. Stanton then came in and appeared to pick off Weeks for the second out, but first base umpire Paul Schrieber ruled that Stanton had made a move toward home before throwing to first and had therefore balked. Magruder scored and the game was over.
The Nationals scored two in the first (one on a Brad Wilkerson homer) and one in the fifth (on a Preston Wilson double). Milwaukee scored two in the first and was down 3-2 in the fifth. The Nats had some opportunities to pull away, but couldn't. They had men on first and third with one out in the 7th, but Jose Guillen grounded into a double play. And they had a man on third with one out in the 8th, but Vinny Castilla flied out to shallow right and Wilson was thrown out trying to tag up from third.
When Carlos Lee homered in the 8th to tie the game, every fan probably had the feeling that we were watching the same bad movie all over again. So true. In the next two innings the Nats went out 1, 2, 3, never mounting an offensive charge.
The sad truths are that the Nats' bullpen (other than Cordero) isn't as good as we thought it was and their hitting is as bad as the last place standing in runs scored reflects. To put a finer point on it, you know your lineup needs improvement when your 8th place hitter is hitting only 15 points higher than your pitcher. To put an even finer point on it, we don't know why Frank Robinson keeps Cristian Guzman in the starting lineup. The rational thing to do at this point is send him to the minors to see whether he can work out his hitting problems. He is simply not a major league hitter.
The Nats now are only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Braves, and, while we shouldn't let this losing streak overwhelm us because the Nats aren't playing at full strength, it's pretty clear that they need offensive and bullpen help if they are to compete to win the division down the stretch.
Rafael Palmeiro
We're not Orioles fans, and we despise Peter Angelos, but we have to pause from our Nationals rants and say something about Rafael Palmeiro. On Friday night Palmeiro had two hits and thereby entered the 3,000 hit club, something only 25 other players have ever done. And he became only the fourth player in the history of baseball to hit 500 homeruns and 3,000 hits. Palmeiro hasn't won an MVP, hasn't been the best player at his position, and hasn't received a lot of notoriety, but he has quietly been a great player. Via baseball-reference.com, the five players whose stats are most similar to Palmeiro's are Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Reggie Jackson, Mel Ott, and Dave Winfield, all of them Hall of Famers. That's pretty good company and a pretty good indication that Palmeiro is a great player and a lock to make the Hall of Fame.
Friday, July 15, 2005
A Chink in the Armor
John Patterson has been a huge surprise this season, and he has been dominant recently. In 95 2/3 innings, he has given up only 80 hits and 7 home runs, has 89 strikeouts, and only 34 walks. He is one of the primary reasons why the Nationals have outperformed all expectations this season.
Having said all of that, it probably seems odd to then criticize Patterson, even mildly, but here goes. Patterson has not yet learned how to go deep into games. In his last 9 games, Patterson has pitched 7 innings only twice. Here are the relevant stats from those games:
May 31 --- 5 IP --- 75 pitches --- 1 hit -- 0 HR - 1 ER - 3 K - 2 BB
June 5 ---- 6 IP --- 98 pitches --- 7 hits - 0 HR - 1 ER - 7 K - 2 BB
June 11 --- 7 IP --- 106 pitches -- 6 hits - 0 HR - 1 ER - 5 K - 1 BB
June 17 --- 5 IP --- 105 pitches -- 8 hits - 1 HR - 4 ER - 6 K - 2 BB
June 22 --- 6.1 IP - 116 pitches -- 7 hits - 3 HR - 4 ER - 4 K - 2 BB
June 29 --- 5 IP --- 99 pitches --- 3 hits - 1 HR - 2 ER - 5 K - 3 BB
July 4 ----- 6 IP --- 116 pitches -- 4 hits - 0 HR - 2 ER - 7 K - 2 BB
July 9 ----- 7 IP --- 108 pitches -- 2 hits - 0 HR - 0 ER - 8 K - 2 BB
July 14 ---- 6 IP --- 115 pitches -- 7 hits - 1 HR - 2 ER - 9 K - 1 BB
Totals --- 53.1 IP - 938 pitches - 45 hits - 6 HR - 17 ER - 54 K - 17 BB
This has been an amazing run. In his last 9 starts, Patterson has a K/BB ratio of 3.18, a K/9 ratio of more than 9, a HR/9 ratio of 1, and a H/9 ratio of 7.64. Oh, and his ERA in that run is about 2.87. He has pitched only two arguably bad games -- on June 17 and 22, when he gave up four earned runs in each game.
The only possible criticism we could have of Patterson is that he has thrown so many pitches early in these games that he hasn't been around to hand the ball off to Chad Cordero. No one can expect a starter to go 8 innings each game, but Patterson has to learn how to get through the early innings within throwing so many pitches that he can't go deep into the game. This is not a minor problem, because when Patterson and Cordero weren't pitching in those games the Nats weren't hitting and the bullpen was often porous, especially recently. Thus, the Nationals are only 5-4 in Patterson's last 9 games, and he has only 2 wins to show for his good work.
Because the Nationals are the lowest scoring team in baseball, they have to rely more than other teams on their pitchers pitching nearly flawless games, which puts inordinate pressure on Patterson to go deeper into games. The best evidence of this is the following stat: the Nats are averaging about 2.89 runs in Patterson's last 9 games, which is just slightly more than his ERA in those games. In other words, the Nats' hitters haven't left him much margin for error.
Let us put the point this way: would you rather have John Patterson or Luis Ayala pitching the seventh and eighth innings?
Having said all of that, it probably seems odd to then criticize Patterson, even mildly, but here goes. Patterson has not yet learned how to go deep into games. In his last 9 games, Patterson has pitched 7 innings only twice. Here are the relevant stats from those games:
May 31 --- 5 IP --- 75 pitches --- 1 hit -- 0 HR - 1 ER - 3 K - 2 BB
June 5 ---- 6 IP --- 98 pitches --- 7 hits - 0 HR - 1 ER - 7 K - 2 BB
June 11 --- 7 IP --- 106 pitches -- 6 hits - 0 HR - 1 ER - 5 K - 1 BB
June 17 --- 5 IP --- 105 pitches -- 8 hits - 1 HR - 4 ER - 6 K - 2 BB
June 22 --- 6.1 IP - 116 pitches -- 7 hits - 3 HR - 4 ER - 4 K - 2 BB
June 29 --- 5 IP --- 99 pitches --- 3 hits - 1 HR - 2 ER - 5 K - 3 BB
July 4 ----- 6 IP --- 116 pitches -- 4 hits - 0 HR - 2 ER - 7 K - 2 BB
July 9 ----- 7 IP --- 108 pitches -- 2 hits - 0 HR - 0 ER - 8 K - 2 BB
July 14 ---- 6 IP --- 115 pitches -- 7 hits - 1 HR - 2 ER - 9 K - 1 BB
Totals --- 53.1 IP - 938 pitches - 45 hits - 6 HR - 17 ER - 54 K - 17 BB
This has been an amazing run. In his last 9 starts, Patterson has a K/BB ratio of 3.18, a K/9 ratio of more than 9, a HR/9 ratio of 1, and a H/9 ratio of 7.64. Oh, and his ERA in that run is about 2.87. He has pitched only two arguably bad games -- on June 17 and 22, when he gave up four earned runs in each game.
The only possible criticism we could have of Patterson is that he has thrown so many pitches early in these games that he hasn't been around to hand the ball off to Chad Cordero. No one can expect a starter to go 8 innings each game, but Patterson has to learn how to get through the early innings within throwing so many pitches that he can't go deep into the game. This is not a minor problem, because when Patterson and Cordero weren't pitching in those games the Nats weren't hitting and the bullpen was often porous, especially recently. Thus, the Nationals are only 5-4 in Patterson's last 9 games, and he has only 2 wins to show for his good work.
Because the Nationals are the lowest scoring team in baseball, they have to rely more than other teams on their pitchers pitching nearly flawless games, which puts inordinate pressure on Patterson to go deeper into games. The best evidence of this is the following stat: the Nats are averaging about 2.89 runs in Patterson's last 9 games, which is just slightly more than his ERA in those games. In other words, the Nats' hitters haven't left him much margin for error.
Let us put the point this way: would you rather have John Patterson or Luis Ayala pitching the seventh and eighth innings?
Thursday, July 14, 2005
This is getting old
The Nationals lost their third straight game, and it was the third straight game in which the bullpen gave up late runs to lose it. John Patterson again pitched a strong game, giving up two runs on seven hits, while striking out nine and walking one. Patterson left the game after six innings and 115 pitches.
Luis Ayala relieved Patterson and immediately got into trouble, again. Ayala escaped without giving up a run only because Damian Miller committed a baserunning blunder. With one out and men on first and third, Ricky Weeks grounded to Ayala. For some reason Miller tried to score and was hung out to dry. Joey Eischen then relieved Ayala and promptly walked Lyle Overbay to load the bases. It was the only hitter Eischen faced; perhaps he was thinking Frank Robinson again wanted him to come in only to walk a batter. In any event, Gary Majewski struck out Carlos Lee to end the inning.
Majewski wasn't as lucky in the eighth. After Geoff Jenkins singled and Bill Hall sacrificed Jenkins to second, Majewski intentionally walked Russ Branyan. Damian Miller then atoned for his baserunning blunder by doubling in both Jenkins and Branyan. That made it 4-2, and the game was over.
We say it was over because there was little chance that the Nationals would score two runs that late in the game. The bullpen has been unable to hold opposing teams scoreless late in games recently, and for that they should be blamed, but it's a bit unfair to blame everything on the relievers. Unable to score late in games, the Nats' hitters are forcing the relievers into a situation in which they have no margin for error. The only way for the team to prevail is for the bullpen to pitch flawlessly while everyone waits for a run. As we saw in Philadelphia before the break, that can be a long wait. It's one thing to require perfection from your closer--after all, that's why you have a closer--but it's quite another to require it of your entire bullpen.
Besides Patterson's performance, there was really only one other bright spot--Preston Wilson hit a homer in his first at bat as a National. That's small consolation, but it's at least something.
Luis Ayala relieved Patterson and immediately got into trouble, again. Ayala escaped without giving up a run only because Damian Miller committed a baserunning blunder. With one out and men on first and third, Ricky Weeks grounded to Ayala. For some reason Miller tried to score and was hung out to dry. Joey Eischen then relieved Ayala and promptly walked Lyle Overbay to load the bases. It was the only hitter Eischen faced; perhaps he was thinking Frank Robinson again wanted him to come in only to walk a batter. In any event, Gary Majewski struck out Carlos Lee to end the inning.
Majewski wasn't as lucky in the eighth. After Geoff Jenkins singled and Bill Hall sacrificed Jenkins to second, Majewski intentionally walked Russ Branyan. Damian Miller then atoned for his baserunning blunder by doubling in both Jenkins and Branyan. That made it 4-2, and the game was over.
We say it was over because there was little chance that the Nationals would score two runs that late in the game. The bullpen has been unable to hold opposing teams scoreless late in games recently, and for that they should be blamed, but it's a bit unfair to blame everything on the relievers. Unable to score late in games, the Nats' hitters are forcing the relievers into a situation in which they have no margin for error. The only way for the team to prevail is for the bullpen to pitch flawlessly while everyone waits for a run. As we saw in Philadelphia before the break, that can be a long wait. It's one thing to require perfection from your closer--after all, that's why you have a closer--but it's quite another to require it of your entire bullpen.
Besides Patterson's performance, there was really only one other bright spot--Preston Wilson hit a homer in his first at bat as a National. That's small consolation, but it's at least something.
What's at Stake
The principle reason why we are so agitated about the Nationals' moves as the trade deadline nears is that the team has an enormous opportunity to do something that has never been done before.
In a single season the Washington Nationals can go from the major league dungeon to a premier franchise. Last year the Montreal Expos were a joke: no fan base, no marketing opportunities, no revenue, no significant farm system, and, increasingly, no stable of front-line players. The Expos were a franchise that either had to be moved out of Montreal or contracted out of existence.
One year later, the Expos have morphed into the Nationals, and despite having no significant farm system and no players previously thought to be legitimate stars, the Nats are in first place in arguably the most competitive division in baseball. The team has the third best record in the entire league. They are in the 8th largest media market in the country, have the twelfth largest fan base, and have a robust and growing merchandise business. Given that this is their first year in D.C., there is every reason to believe that the Nats' fan base will continue to grow.
But, unfortunately, the team continues to behave like it's still in Montreal. The two recent deals tinker at the margins of a team with real needs. To maintain their status as the team with the third best record in baseball, the Nats need to make major deals to acquire significant talent, the same kind of trades that baseball's premier teams will make. One of those teams--the Atlanta Braves--is hot on the Nats' heels, and unless the team makes major moves the Braves will overtake them.
The team and its front office needs to start acting like the Nationals are a premier franchise. We know there are hurdles--the lack of a real owner, the disproportionate power over the team held by an owner committed to the Nats' destruction, and the lack of a real media contract. But these are the cards the Nats have been dealt, and they have to play with them. The team has tens of millions of dollars to spend on players because it is now a major franchise in a major market. While there are good reasons not to spend all of that money before an owner buys the team, there are still opportunities to acquire premier players who cost a lot of money.
If the teams acts like a premier franchise this season, it can leap into the upper echelon of major league teams in a single season. If it doesn't, it risks squandering much of the good will and opportunity fate has handed to it in its first season in D.C.
In a single season the Washington Nationals can go from the major league dungeon to a premier franchise. Last year the Montreal Expos were a joke: no fan base, no marketing opportunities, no revenue, no significant farm system, and, increasingly, no stable of front-line players. The Expos were a franchise that either had to be moved out of Montreal or contracted out of existence.
One year later, the Expos have morphed into the Nationals, and despite having no significant farm system and no players previously thought to be legitimate stars, the Nats are in first place in arguably the most competitive division in baseball. The team has the third best record in the entire league. They are in the 8th largest media market in the country, have the twelfth largest fan base, and have a robust and growing merchandise business. Given that this is their first year in D.C., there is every reason to believe that the Nats' fan base will continue to grow.
But, unfortunately, the team continues to behave like it's still in Montreal. The two recent deals tinker at the margins of a team with real needs. To maintain their status as the team with the third best record in baseball, the Nats need to make major deals to acquire significant talent, the same kind of trades that baseball's premier teams will make. One of those teams--the Atlanta Braves--is hot on the Nats' heels, and unless the team makes major moves the Braves will overtake them.
The team and its front office needs to start acting like the Nationals are a premier franchise. We know there are hurdles--the lack of a real owner, the disproportionate power over the team held by an owner committed to the Nats' destruction, and the lack of a real media contract. But these are the cards the Nats have been dealt, and they have to play with them. The team has tens of millions of dollars to spend on players because it is now a major franchise in a major market. While there are good reasons not to spend all of that money before an owner buys the team, there are still opportunities to acquire premier players who cost a lot of money.
If the teams acts like a premier franchise this season, it can leap into the upper echelon of major league teams in a single season. If it doesn't, it risks squandering much of the good will and opportunity fate has handed to it in its first season in D.C.
Mike Stanton
The Nats picked up Mike Stanton yesterday for the league minimum. Stanton was released by the Yankees, who grew tired of his 7+ ERA. You might think that the guy has no value, but he did do pretty well against left handed hitters, so if he's going to be used as a LOOGY (left-handed one out guy) he could have some value, but probably not much if he's going to be used for more than that. In other words, it's not a great pick-up, but it could help somewhat.
Stanton doesn't seem to get that. Here's an excerpt from a story on mlb.com:
"Stanton said he thinks his lack of work may have contributed to his poor numbers in his second stint in the Bronx.
"'They [the Yankees] had me as a left-handed specialist,'" said Stanton, who has held left-handed hitters to a .245 mark over his 17-year Major League career. "'But I have to be used often, even against right-handers. I have more success against right-handers than I do left-handers.'"
Um, Mike, right handers are CRUSHING the ball against you. These are Stanton's stats against right handers this year: .519 OBP, .913 SLG, 1.432 OPS. Those are beyond Ruthian numbers. His numbers against righties were better in 2004, but still not great: .370 OBP, .426 SLG, .796 OPS. The .370 OBP is a bit scary.
Stanton doesn't seem to get that. Here's an excerpt from a story on mlb.com:
"Stanton said he thinks his lack of work may have contributed to his poor numbers in his second stint in the Bronx.
"'They [the Yankees] had me as a left-handed specialist,'" said Stanton, who has held left-handed hitters to a .245 mark over his 17-year Major League career. "'But I have to be used often, even against right-handers. I have more success against right-handers than I do left-handers.'"
Um, Mike, right handers are CRUSHING the ball against you. These are Stanton's stats against right handers this year: .519 OBP, .913 SLG, 1.432 OPS. Those are beyond Ruthian numbers. His numbers against righties were better in 2004, but still not great: .370 OBP, .426 SLG, .796 OPS. The .370 OBP is a bit scary.
When we said "trade for offense," this isn't what we had in mind!
Have you ever watched two people walking in such a way that you know they're going to run into each other, and you feel like you should do something to help them avoid the collision, but you find that there isn't really anything you can do, so you just sit there helplessly, watching them crash into each other? Well, that's sort of how we feel about the trade for Preston Wilson.
Purportedly to improve their offense, which has produced the lowest runs scored in baseball, the Nationals obtained Preston Wilson and cash yesterday in exchange for what you might think is not a whole lot--Zach Day, J.J. Davis, and either a PTBNL or cash. They got a player who is not really a consistently productive offensive player outside of Coors Field--the most extreme hitter's park in the history of baseball. We won't belabor the point because we've commented on it at length, but outside of Coors Field Wilson isn't just average, he's TERRIBLE! This trade therefore will not improve the Nats' offense significantly, and certainly does not eliminate the need to acquire significant offense via other trades.
What the Nationals got is a guy who should be a fourth outfielder. You can argue that the Nats needed more bench strength, and given that the team sports both Carlos Baerga and Wil Cordero, we're not going to argue with you. But the Nats' principle need isn't for a fourth outfielder. What they really need is a front-line player to man left field every day and thereby convert Ryan Church into a very valuable fourth outfielder. It's not at all clear that Wilson is a material upgrade over Ryan Church, and, if the Nats don't make another trade for an outfielder, it will be very interesting to see whether Wilson or Church gets more at bats in September.
One more thing. We're a bit confused about the cash part. Jim Bowden has been arguing that, although Preston Wilson is still owed $5.7 million this year, the Nationals will pay only a small part of that salary--apparently $2 million. But there is an element of the deal that isn't finalized yet. The Nats still owe the Rockies either another player or cash. It will be interesting to see whether the Nats pay more for Wilson and, if so, how much.
Purportedly to improve their offense, which has produced the lowest runs scored in baseball, the Nationals obtained Preston Wilson and cash yesterday in exchange for what you might think is not a whole lot--Zach Day, J.J. Davis, and either a PTBNL or cash. They got a player who is not really a consistently productive offensive player outside of Coors Field--the most extreme hitter's park in the history of baseball. We won't belabor the point because we've commented on it at length, but outside of Coors Field Wilson isn't just average, he's TERRIBLE! This trade therefore will not improve the Nats' offense significantly, and certainly does not eliminate the need to acquire significant offense via other trades.
What the Nationals got is a guy who should be a fourth outfielder. You can argue that the Nats needed more bench strength, and given that the team sports both Carlos Baerga and Wil Cordero, we're not going to argue with you. But the Nats' principle need isn't for a fourth outfielder. What they really need is a front-line player to man left field every day and thereby convert Ryan Church into a very valuable fourth outfielder. It's not at all clear that Wilson is a material upgrade over Ryan Church, and, if the Nats don't make another trade for an outfielder, it will be very interesting to see whether Wilson or Church gets more at bats in September.
One more thing. We're a bit confused about the cash part. Jim Bowden has been arguing that, although Preston Wilson is still owed $5.7 million this year, the Nationals will pay only a small part of that salary--apparently $2 million. But there is an element of the deal that isn't finalized yet. The Nats still owe the Rockies either another player or cash. It will be interesting to see whether the Nats pay more for Wilson and, if so, how much.
Wednesday, July 13, 2005
Nationals vs. Braves, cont'd
A couple of more points about the hitting comparison between the Nationals and the Braves. We think the Nats have to consider themselves set for this year at catcher, first, second, center, and right.
The Nats clearly need an offensive upgrade at short and third. We trust that no one disputes the need for an upgrade at short.
For those who believe that Castilla is merely in a slump and therefore dispute the need at third, consider that Vinny Castilla last year away from Colorado had the following stats: .281 OBP, .493 SLG, .774 OPS. Those are similar to his stats this year (.330 OBP, .397 SLG, .727 OPS). Castilla is suffering from a power outage, but his advancing years and playing half his games in RFK lead us to conclude that we may seem some improvement in his slugging percentage, but not much of one.
We also think the Nats should consider spending some of their money in left. Ryan Church has done a great job so far, but we're inclined to think that his long-term role is as a fourth outfielder. That's not a criticism of Church, but he's 26 and has only 160 at bats. For these reasons, we're a bit skeptical that he's going to continue putting up OPS numbers comparable with Adam Dunn and Andruw Jones.
For reasons we've already noted, the Nats have a lot of money to spend on hitting. An upgrade at short and third strikes us as obvious, and as long as we have the money to spend, why not spend it on a great player in left and use Ryan Church to significantly strengthen the bench?
The Nats clearly need an offensive upgrade at short and third. We trust that no one disputes the need for an upgrade at short.
For those who believe that Castilla is merely in a slump and therefore dispute the need at third, consider that Vinny Castilla last year away from Colorado had the following stats: .281 OBP, .493 SLG, .774 OPS. Those are similar to his stats this year (.330 OBP, .397 SLG, .727 OPS). Castilla is suffering from a power outage, but his advancing years and playing half his games in RFK lead us to conclude that we may seem some improvement in his slugging percentage, but not much of one.
We also think the Nats should consider spending some of their money in left. Ryan Church has done a great job so far, but we're inclined to think that his long-term role is as a fourth outfielder. That's not a criticism of Church, but he's 26 and has only 160 at bats. For these reasons, we're a bit skeptical that he's going to continue putting up OPS numbers comparable with Adam Dunn and Andruw Jones.
For reasons we've already noted, the Nats have a lot of money to spend on hitting. An upgrade at short and third strikes us as obvious, and as long as we have the money to spend, why not spend it on a great player in left and use Ryan Church to significantly strengthen the bench?
Nationals vs. Braves
The Nationals and the Braves are the two teams fighting it out right now for the lead in the National League East. Assuming that both teams continue to contend for the lead, let's compare their lineups, assuming that players on the DL before the break come off it soon after:
Pos - Nationals OBP - SLG - OPS ----- Braves --- OBP - SLG - OPS
C ----- Schneider .323 - .412 - .735 -------- Estrada -- .327 - .398 - .725
1B ---- Johnson - .444 - .508 - .952 -------- LaRoche -- .332 - .478 - .810
2B ---- Vidro ---- .368 - .480 - .848 ------- Giles ------ .384 - .469 - .853
SS ---- Guzman - .239 - .291 - .530 ------- Furcal ----- .310 - .393 - .703
3B ---- Castilla -- .330 - .397 - .727 -------- Jones ----- .411 - .513 - .923
LF ---- Church -- .381 - .544 - .924 -------- Johnson -- .376 - .447 - .823
CF ---- Wilkerson .376 - .433 - .809 ------- Jones ----- .352 - .578 - .930
RF ---- Guillen -- .360 - .539 - .899 ------- Langerhans .327 - .412 - .739
The teams are about even at catcher and second. The Nats have the advantage at first, left field, and right field. Left field is a little bit of a crap shoot because both Ryan Church and Kelly Johnson are rookies and it's hard to predict how they'll perform down the stretch. The Braves have the advantage at short, third, and center field.
Of course, these lineups are not likely to remain static. We expect that the Braves will make a number of trades and will try to improve themselves at first and right field, at least. We hope that the Nats try to do the same at short and third.
We'll analyze the teams' pitching in a later post.
Pos - Nationals OBP - SLG - OPS ----- Braves --- OBP - SLG - OPS
C ----- Schneider .323 - .412 - .735 -------- Estrada -- .327 - .398 - .725
1B ---- Johnson - .444 - .508 - .952 -------- LaRoche -- .332 - .478 - .810
2B ---- Vidro ---- .368 - .480 - .848 ------- Giles ------ .384 - .469 - .853
SS ---- Guzman - .239 - .291 - .530 ------- Furcal ----- .310 - .393 - .703
3B ---- Castilla -- .330 - .397 - .727 -------- Jones ----- .411 - .513 - .923
LF ---- Church -- .381 - .544 - .924 -------- Johnson -- .376 - .447 - .823
CF ---- Wilkerson .376 - .433 - .809 ------- Jones ----- .352 - .578 - .930
RF ---- Guillen -- .360 - .539 - .899 ------- Langerhans .327 - .412 - .739
The teams are about even at catcher and second. The Nats have the advantage at first, left field, and right field. Left field is a little bit of a crap shoot because both Ryan Church and Kelly Johnson are rookies and it's hard to predict how they'll perform down the stretch. The Braves have the advantage at short, third, and center field.
Of course, these lineups are not likely to remain static. We expect that the Braves will make a number of trades and will try to improve themselves at first and right field, at least. We hope that the Nats try to do the same at short and third.
We'll analyze the teams' pitching in a later post.
State of the National League East
Here are the standings in the National League East at the All-Star Break:
Team ------ W -- L -- PCT - GB -- HOME -- ROAD -- RS -- RA
Washington 52 - 36 - .591 --- 0 --- 30-13 --- 22-23 -- 357 - 361
Atlanta ---- 50 - 39 - .562 --- 2.5 -- 29-14 --- 21-25 -- 428 - 348
Florida ---- 44 - 42 -- .512 --- 7 --- 25-22 --- 19-20 -- 383 - 368
Philadelphia 45 - 44 -- .506 ---7.5 -- 26-19 -- 19-25 --- 410 - 417
NY Mets --- 44 - 44 -- .500 --- 8 --- 25-18 --- 19-26 -- 387 -- 381
As we've said before, the scary part of these standings is the runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA) differential for the Nationals. Using his Pythagorean Theorem, Bill James showed that this differential is a very accurate predictor of a team's performance. If a team performed better or worse than his formula predicted, he attributed the performance differential to transitory factors that were not likely to continue over the long term.
Via Rob Neyer, here are the adjusted standings using James' Pythagorean Theorem. "ExW - L" is the number of expected wins and losses based on the team's runs scored-runs allowed differential. "W-L" is the team's actual record, and the last column is the difference between the team's expected and actual record.
Team -------- ExW - L --- W - L - +/-
Atlanta -------- 54 - 35 --- 50 - 39 -4
Florida -------- 45 - 41 --- 44 - 42 -1
NY Mets ------ 45 - 43 --- 44 - 44 -1
Washington --- 44 - 44 --- 52 - 36 +8
Philadelphia --- 44 - 45 --- 45 - 44 +1
A team that scores about as many runs as it allows tends to be a .500 team. The Nationals have bucked the system so far, but that's not likely to continue. But even if they play .500 over the remainder of the season, they will contend for the division title. As we said this weekend, if they are a .500 team for the rest of the season, and the Braves continue to win as their current rate, the Nationals would end up 2 games behind the Braves.
The Nationals are one of the league's best teams in runs allowed, but they are the worst team in runs scored. We think this leads to only one conclusion: while the Nationals need to shore up their middle relievers, their number one goal should be to trade for more offense. They have a lot of money to spend because they have a Montreal-like payroll, but play in the 8th largest media market in the country and have the 12th best attendance in baseball. Hopefully the Nats will spend that money wisely on consistently productive offensive players.
Team ------ W -- L -- PCT - GB -- HOME -- ROAD -- RS -- RA
Washington 52 - 36 - .591 --- 0 --- 30-13 --- 22-23 -- 357 - 361
Atlanta ---- 50 - 39 - .562 --- 2.5 -- 29-14 --- 21-25 -- 428 - 348
Florida ---- 44 - 42 -- .512 --- 7 --- 25-22 --- 19-20 -- 383 - 368
Philadelphia 45 - 44 -- .506 ---7.5 -- 26-19 -- 19-25 --- 410 - 417
NY Mets --- 44 - 44 -- .500 --- 8 --- 25-18 --- 19-26 -- 387 -- 381
As we've said before, the scary part of these standings is the runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA) differential for the Nationals. Using his Pythagorean Theorem, Bill James showed that this differential is a very accurate predictor of a team's performance. If a team performed better or worse than his formula predicted, he attributed the performance differential to transitory factors that were not likely to continue over the long term.
Via Rob Neyer, here are the adjusted standings using James' Pythagorean Theorem. "ExW - L" is the number of expected wins and losses based on the team's runs scored-runs allowed differential. "W-L" is the team's actual record, and the last column is the difference between the team's expected and actual record.
Team -------- ExW - L --- W - L - +/-
Atlanta -------- 54 - 35 --- 50 - 39 -4
Florida -------- 45 - 41 --- 44 - 42 -1
NY Mets ------ 45 - 43 --- 44 - 44 -1
Washington --- 44 - 44 --- 52 - 36 +8
Philadelphia --- 44 - 45 --- 45 - 44 +1
A team that scores about as many runs as it allows tends to be a .500 team. The Nationals have bucked the system so far, but that's not likely to continue. But even if they play .500 over the remainder of the season, they will contend for the division title. As we said this weekend, if they are a .500 team for the rest of the season, and the Braves continue to win as their current rate, the Nationals would end up 2 games behind the Braves.
The Nationals are one of the league's best teams in runs allowed, but they are the worst team in runs scored. We think this leads to only one conclusion: while the Nationals need to shore up their middle relievers, their number one goal should be to trade for more offense. They have a lot of money to spend because they have a Montreal-like payroll, but play in the 8th largest media market in the country and have the 12th best attendance in baseball. Hopefully the Nats will spend that money wisely on consistently productive offensive players.
All Stars
The lines for the Nationals' two players in the All-Star game last night:
Player IP H R ER BB K
Livan Hernandez 1 2 2 2 1 0
Chad Cordero .1 0 0 0 0 1
Hernandez had a tough inning. With one out, he walked Jason Varitek and gave up a ground rule double to Brian Roberts, and then had to face Ichiro with men on second and third. That's not an enviable position. Sure enough, Ichiro singled to right, driving in Varitek and Roberts. Hernandez then got A-Rod to fly out.
Think of the order Hernandez had to face: Teixeira, Varitek, Roberts, Ichiro, and A-Rod. That's a great lineup.
Facing only one batter, Cordero struck out Ivan Rodriguez in the bottom of the 8th on seven pitches. That's the Chief we've come to know and love.
Player IP H R ER BB K
Livan Hernandez 1 2 2 2 1 0
Chad Cordero .1 0 0 0 0 1
Hernandez had a tough inning. With one out, he walked Jason Varitek and gave up a ground rule double to Brian Roberts, and then had to face Ichiro with men on second and third. That's not an enviable position. Sure enough, Ichiro singled to right, driving in Varitek and Roberts. Hernandez then got A-Rod to fly out.
Think of the order Hernandez had to face: Teixeira, Varitek, Roberts, Ichiro, and A-Rod. That's a great lineup.
Facing only one batter, Cordero struck out Ivan Rodriguez in the bottom of the 8th on seven pitches. That's the Chief we've come to know and love.
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
These Guys Are Good
We all know that the Nationals' pitching has been good, but maybe we don't realize how good it has been.
Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com) ranks pitchers by various measures, one of which is VORP--Value Over Replacement Player. VORP calculates a player's contribution over that of a replacement-level player at the same position. Roger Clemens, not suprisingly, is first in the National League, but 3 of the Nationals' 5 starters rank in the top 11--Livan Hernandez (#7), John Patterson (#9), and Esteban Loiaza (#11)--and Chad Cordero is #25.
No other team has 3 pitchers in the top 11--the Houston Astros have 2.
Cordero also is #1 in BP's ranking of Relievers Expected Wins Added, which measures the expected wins a relief pitcher adds over a replacement level pitcher.
These four pitchers are a very big reason--maybe the biggest reason--why the Nationals have done so well in the first half of the season. And whether the Nationals continue to perform so well depends in large part on these pitchers continuing to pitch at a high level.
Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com) ranks pitchers by various measures, one of which is VORP--Value Over Replacement Player. VORP calculates a player's contribution over that of a replacement-level player at the same position. Roger Clemens, not suprisingly, is first in the National League, but 3 of the Nationals' 5 starters rank in the top 11--Livan Hernandez (#7), John Patterson (#9), and Esteban Loiaza (#11)--and Chad Cordero is #25.
No other team has 3 pitchers in the top 11--the Houston Astros have 2.
Cordero also is #1 in BP's ranking of Relievers Expected Wins Added, which measures the expected wins a relief pitcher adds over a replacement level pitcher.
These four pitchers are a very big reason--maybe the biggest reason--why the Nationals have done so well in the first half of the season. And whether the Nationals continue to perform so well depends in large part on these pitchers continuing to pitch at a high level.
Livan Hernandez
Livan Hernandez has outperformed our wildest expecations this year; we never dreamed that at the All-Star break he would be 12-3 and an anchor of one of the league's best pitching staffs.
Hernandez has a lot going for him: he locates the ball well, he mixes speeds well, and he gives up very few homeruns. Although he pitches in a pitcher-friendly park, his underlying numbers on the road are not appreciably worse than they are at home. His K/9 ratio (5.12 at home, 5.35 on the road), K/BB ratio (1.41 at home, 1.58 on the road), and HR/9 ratio (.42 at home, .65 on the road) are all about the same regardless of whether Livan pitches at home or on the road.
We, nevertheless, are skeptical of Hernandez' ability to maintain this level of success. Most of our skepticism is based on the fact that he's become a soft-tosser. He doesn't have a great strikeout-to-walk ratio (78-50), he doesn't strike out a lot of hitters (5.23 per 9 innings), he doesn't have much of a fastball anymore, and he's thrown enough innings to wear out most arms. His strikeout ratios are also deteriorating. In the last three years his K/9 ratio has gone from 6.87 to 6.57 to 5.23, and his K/BB ratio has gone from 3.12 to 2.24 to 1.56. It's true that Hernandez posted more strikeouts in 2003 and 2004 than he did in 2001 and 2002, but his 2001 and 2002 ratios were better than his 2005 ratios.
Livan has built his success on fooling hitters and locating his pitches, and, although there's every reason to think that Hernandez will continue to be a productive major league pitcher, we just can't bring ourselves to believe that he'll continue to fool enough hitters to enjoy anything near this level of success for the rest of the season.
Hernandez has a lot going for him: he locates the ball well, he mixes speeds well, and he gives up very few homeruns. Although he pitches in a pitcher-friendly park, his underlying numbers on the road are not appreciably worse than they are at home. His K/9 ratio (5.12 at home, 5.35 on the road), K/BB ratio (1.41 at home, 1.58 on the road), and HR/9 ratio (.42 at home, .65 on the road) are all about the same regardless of whether Livan pitches at home or on the road.
We, nevertheless, are skeptical of Hernandez' ability to maintain this level of success. Most of our skepticism is based on the fact that he's become a soft-tosser. He doesn't have a great strikeout-to-walk ratio (78-50), he doesn't strike out a lot of hitters (5.23 per 9 innings), he doesn't have much of a fastball anymore, and he's thrown enough innings to wear out most arms. His strikeout ratios are also deteriorating. In the last three years his K/9 ratio has gone from 6.87 to 6.57 to 5.23, and his K/BB ratio has gone from 3.12 to 2.24 to 1.56. It's true that Hernandez posted more strikeouts in 2003 and 2004 than he did in 2001 and 2002, but his 2001 and 2002 ratios were better than his 2005 ratios.
Livan has built his success on fooling hitters and locating his pitches, and, although there's every reason to think that Hernandez will continue to be a productive major league pitcher, we just can't bring ourselves to believe that he'll continue to fool enough hitters to enjoy anything near this level of success for the rest of the season.
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