Sunday, July 17, 2005

Jose Guillen, Statistical Anomaly

We've heard some of our friends attribute Jose Guillen's 18 road home runs and 1 home home run (sorry, but we couldn't resist) to RFK's park effects. Some of this differential clearly is attributable to RFK's dampening effect on home runs, but only some of it. So far this year the home runs hit at RFK amount to only about 55% of those hit in all other stadiums. Thus, given that Guillen has hit 18 home runs on the road, we would have expected him to hit about 10 home runs at RFK. We realize that this is a simplified calculation, but you get the point.

Why then has Guillen hit only 1 home run at RFK? Who knows? Some of it likely is just dumb luck, and there are probably one hundred other reasons why, most of which we can't possibly understand. We can understand one thing, however: Guillen's 18/1 differential is about as severe a statistical anomaly we will probably ever find in the realm of park effects on home runs.

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