Here are the standings in the National League East at the All-Star Break:
Team ------ W -- L -- PCT - GB -- HOME -- ROAD -- RS -- RA
Washington 52 - 36 - .591 --- 0 --- 30-13 --- 22-23 -- 357 - 361
Atlanta ---- 50 - 39 - .562 --- 2.5 -- 29-14 --- 21-25 -- 428 - 348
Florida ---- 44 - 42 -- .512 --- 7 --- 25-22 --- 19-20 -- 383 - 368
Philadelphia 45 - 44 -- .506 ---7.5 -- 26-19 -- 19-25 --- 410 - 417
NY Mets --- 44 - 44 -- .500 --- 8 --- 25-18 --- 19-26 -- 387 -- 381
As we've said before, the scary part of these standings is the runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA) differential for the Nationals. Using his Pythagorean Theorem, Bill James showed that this differential is a very accurate predictor of a team's performance. If a team performed better or worse than his formula predicted, he attributed the performance differential to transitory factors that were not likely to continue over the long term.
Via Rob Neyer, here are the adjusted standings using James' Pythagorean Theorem. "ExW - L" is the number of expected wins and losses based on the team's runs scored-runs allowed differential. "W-L" is the team's actual record, and the last column is the difference between the team's expected and actual record.
Team -------- ExW - L --- W - L - +/-
Atlanta -------- 54 - 35 --- 50 - 39 -4
Florida -------- 45 - 41 --- 44 - 42 -1
NY Mets ------ 45 - 43 --- 44 - 44 -1
Washington --- 44 - 44 --- 52 - 36 +8
Philadelphia --- 44 - 45 --- 45 - 44 +1
A team that scores about as many runs as it allows tends to be a .500 team. The Nationals have bucked the system so far, but that's not likely to continue. But even if they play .500 over the remainder of the season, they will contend for the division title. As we said this weekend, if they are a .500 team for the rest of the season, and the Braves continue to win as their current rate, the Nationals would end up 2 games behind the Braves.
The Nationals are one of the league's best teams in runs allowed, but they are the worst team in runs scored. We think this leads to only one conclusion: while the Nationals need to shore up their middle relievers, their number one goal should be to trade for more offense. They have a lot of money to spend because they have a Montreal-like payroll, but play in the 8th largest media market in the country and have the 12th best attendance in baseball. Hopefully the Nats will spend that money wisely on consistently productive offensive players.
Team ------ W -- L -- PCT - GB -- HOME -- ROAD -- RS -- RA
Washington 52 - 36 - .591 --- 0 --- 30-13 --- 22-23 -- 357 - 361
Atlanta ---- 50 - 39 - .562 --- 2.5 -- 29-14 --- 21-25 -- 428 - 348
Florida ---- 44 - 42 -- .512 --- 7 --- 25-22 --- 19-20 -- 383 - 368
Philadelphia 45 - 44 -- .506 ---7.5 -- 26-19 -- 19-25 --- 410 - 417
NY Mets --- 44 - 44 -- .500 --- 8 --- 25-18 --- 19-26 -- 387 -- 381
As we've said before, the scary part of these standings is the runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA) differential for the Nationals. Using his Pythagorean Theorem, Bill James showed that this differential is a very accurate predictor of a team's performance. If a team performed better or worse than his formula predicted, he attributed the performance differential to transitory factors that were not likely to continue over the long term.
Via Rob Neyer, here are the adjusted standings using James' Pythagorean Theorem. "ExW - L" is the number of expected wins and losses based on the team's runs scored-runs allowed differential. "W-L" is the team's actual record, and the last column is the difference between the team's expected and actual record.
Team -------- ExW - L --- W - L - +/-
Atlanta -------- 54 - 35 --- 50 - 39 -4
Florida -------- 45 - 41 --- 44 - 42 -1
NY Mets ------ 45 - 43 --- 44 - 44 -1
Washington --- 44 - 44 --- 52 - 36 +8
Philadelphia --- 44 - 45 --- 45 - 44 +1
A team that scores about as many runs as it allows tends to be a .500 team. The Nationals have bucked the system so far, but that's not likely to continue. But even if they play .500 over the remainder of the season, they will contend for the division title. As we said this weekend, if they are a .500 team for the rest of the season, and the Braves continue to win as their current rate, the Nationals would end up 2 games behind the Braves.
The Nationals are one of the league's best teams in runs allowed, but they are the worst team in runs scored. We think this leads to only one conclusion: while the Nationals need to shore up their middle relievers, their number one goal should be to trade for more offense. They have a lot of money to spend because they have a Montreal-like payroll, but play in the 8th largest media market in the country and have the 12th best attendance in baseball. Hopefully the Nats will spend that money wisely on consistently productive offensive players.
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