Prisoners' Dilemma

Sunday's game against the Brewers highlighted a dilemma the Nationals, as they are now constituted, face any time a starting pitcher fares badly early in a game.

We start with the proposition that the Nationals are not likely to score a lot of runs. When the starter gets in trouble early, Frank Robinson, like all managers, must decide whether to pull the pitcher. But, unlike other managers, Robinson does not have the luxury of assuming that his team can come back from a significant deficit. In fact, based on the team's performance to date, Robinson has to assume that his team cannot make up a significant deficit and must therefore keep the game close if the Nats are to have any chance of winning.

So, what does Robinson do when it becomes obvious in the first and third innings that Ryan Drese's sinker isn't sinking? If he takes the pitcher out immediately, he places a big strain on his bullpen. And he can't do that every time a starter runs into trouble because pretty soon he won't have much of a relief core. On the other hand, if he stays with the pitcher he risks being effectively out of the game before the fourth inning.

On Sunday, Robinson stayed with Drese as long as he could, thinking, perhaps, that the risk had lessened because Drese has reached the bottom of the order. But Chad Moeller blew up that risk analysis by drilling a lackluster Drese pitch into center, scoring Geoff Jenkins and putting Milwaukee up 5-1. Could the Nats come back? Yes, they could, but it wasn't likely.

The problem is that Robinson doesn't have the same weapons other managers have when he faces this situation. He can't expand the 25-man roster to give him more relief options and increasing the number of pitchers on this roster would only place an undue strain on his position players. In the end, Robinson has to preserve his bullpen, even though doing so means he must stay with starters past the point from which his team likely can come back. In other words, lacking real offensive power, Robinson is caught in a dilemma to which there is no good answer and that is different from what most managers face.

This is more evidence both that Robinson is doing a great job under difficult circumstances and that no rational person would design a team to look like this.