Friday, July 29, 2005

A Radical Trade Proposal

We've been pretty negative about the Nationals recently, which should come as no surprise given that they're 8-16 in July and have the hitting punch of an aging Mike Tyson. But let's try to imagine a better world for the Nationals. Let's try to imagine a team with the hitting talent they need to compete for the Eastern Division title. What would that team look like, and what would we have to give up to get there?

We start with the proposition that the Nationals are one of the worst hitting teams in the major leagues, and certainly the worst hitting team of any first or second place team. Meanwhile, the Nationals have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Yes, their bullpen needs help, but of all the things the Nationals need that's probably the easiest hole to fill. And the Nationals don't have much of a farm system to use as trade bait. The once vaunted Montreal Expos talent machine is going to have to be retooled over the next few years.

So, the Nationals will have to trade pitching for offense. Who should they trade?

First, they should trade Livan Hernandez. Don't get us wrong, Hernandez has been good, but he hasn't been great:

H/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9 -- K/9 -- K/BB -- ERA
9.21 -- 3.15 --- .63 ---5.43 - 1.73 -- 3.32

Hernandez' saving grace has been the infrequency with which he gives up the long ball, but some of that skill is no doubt related to his pitching in RFK. He does have 12 victories, and he is a smart and effective pitcher, so a lot of teams will be interested in him. His trade value is also never likely to be as high as it is right now.

Second, the Nationals also should trade Armando Galarraga, a young pitcher who is tearing up AA.

Third, depending on who they could get, we think the Nationals should seriously consider trading Chad Cordero. Before you shout us down, realize that we would rather not trade Cordero. But trading closers is a good way to improve; few closers are at the top of their game for long; the Nationals are going to have to pay Cordero a lot of money when he goes to arbitration; and THE NATIONALS HAVE NO OFFENSE!

Trading these pitchers would weaken the staff, yes, but it would leave them with John Patterson, Esteban Loaiza, and company, and they could add more bullpen help in other trades or pick-ups.

Who can the Nationals get for Hernandez, Galarraga, and Cordero? How about Adam Dunn, who could play left field, Alfonso Soriano, the Texas Ranger second baseman who could move to third, and a shortstop? That would plug the Nationals gaping offensive holes, give them a chance to compete this year, and set them up nicely for the future.

We'll have more to say about this this weekend, but think about it: don't the Nationals have to do something dramatic to improve?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Way to think out of the box. I doubt they'd ever do it, but you're right - it's all about value. Cordero is only 23 right now; have you ever heard of someone being a closer for 15+ years? Imagine his salary in a few years...