Saturday, July 09, 2005

Preston Wilson

The Nats apparently are discussing with Colorado a deal that would bring Preston Wilson to D.C. in exchange for Zach Day and J.J. Davis. We have serious doubts about this deal for two reasons.

First, Wilson's numbers this year are not altogether inspiring--.321 OBP, .496 SLG, and .817 OPS. These are nearly identical to his career stats--.333 OBP, .481 SLG, and .814 OPS. And when you look a little deeper, his 2005 stats don't bode well for a stay in Washington. Colorado is an extreme hitters park, and RFK is proving to be a pitcher's park, so Wilson's most relevant 2005 stats are those away from Colorado. Those stats are terrible--.280 OBP, .411 SLG, and .691 OPS. Wilson's 2005 road numbers are not quite as good as Junior Spivey's Nats' stats (which are better than his stats in Milwaukee)--.330 OBP, .390 SLF, and .720 OPS--and Spivey is on the bench. In other words, we doubt that Wilson would represent a significant offensive upgrade.

Second, Wilson is making $12.5 million this year. He is a free agent next season, so trading for him wouldn't impose a long-term obligation, but unless Colorado is paying most of his salary this year trading for him would only prevent the Nats from spending their money on consistently productive hitters. If they can get Wilson without paying much money, that's one thing, but if they have to pay a significant portion of his salary, this deal makes no sense to us.

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