Thursday, July 14, 2005

When we said "trade for offense," this isn't what we had in mind!

Have you ever watched two people walking in such a way that you know they're going to run into each other, and you feel like you should do something to help them avoid the collision, but you find that there isn't really anything you can do, so you just sit there helplessly, watching them crash into each other? Well, that's sort of how we feel about the trade for Preston Wilson.

Purportedly to improve their offense, which has produced the lowest runs scored in baseball, the Nationals obtained Preston Wilson and cash yesterday in exchange for what you might think is not a whole lot--Zach Day, J.J. Davis, and either a PTBNL or cash. They got a player who is not really a consistently productive offensive player outside of Coors Field--the most extreme hitter's park in the history of baseball. We won't belabor the point because we've commented on it at length, but outside of Coors Field Wilson isn't just average, he's TERRIBLE! This trade therefore will not improve the Nats' offense significantly, and certainly does not eliminate the need to acquire significant offense via other trades.

What the Nationals got is a guy who should be a fourth outfielder. You can argue that the Nats needed more bench strength, and given that the team sports both Carlos Baerga and Wil Cordero, we're not going to argue with you. But the Nats' principle need isn't for a fourth outfielder. What they really need is a front-line player to man left field every day and thereby convert Ryan Church into a very valuable fourth outfielder. It's not at all clear that Wilson is a material upgrade over Ryan Church, and, if the Nats don't make another trade for an outfielder, it will be very interesting to see whether Wilson or Church gets more at bats in September.

One more thing. We're a bit confused about the cash part. Jim Bowden has been arguing that, although Preston Wilson is still owed $5.7 million this year, the Nationals will pay only a small part of that salary--apparently $2 million. But there is an element of the deal that isn't finalized yet. The Nats still owe the Rockies either another player or cash. It will be interesting to see whether the Nats pay more for Wilson and, if so, how much.

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