This is our first post for what we hope will be an interesting and topical blog about the Washington Nationals. We are big fans who never dreamed that the Nats would do this well. We hope the blog is informative and that you find it at least mildly interesting.
Today ends with the Nats winning another game by one run, but this game was different. It appeared ready to end as many games have, with the Nationals ahead, but not by much. With the Nats up 2-0 in the ninth, the Chief couldn't hold the lead. Aramis Ramirez' two-run blast ended Cordero's mini-Gagne streak of 26 straight saves. But as they have done all season, the Nats came back, this time with a rally started by Carlos Baerga of all people. Two runs later, the Nats appeared to have the game in hand. Unfortunately, the bullpen blew the lead again, with Carrasco and Eischen being the culprits this time. But our faith was rewarded with Brian Schneider's home run in the top of the 12th and Eischen's perfect bottom of the 12th.
So, another win and another one run game. The Nats have done far better than any of us rational people could have expected. This is a team that everyone can love--no real stars, a small payroll, and a lot of grit. The Nats have been the feel-good story of the season, but it isn't likely to continue as is. Bill James created a "pythagorean theorem" formula that was remarkably good at predicting a team's winning percentage based on its runs scored and runs allowed. If a team's winning percentage differed materially from the pythagorean theorem results, he theorized that we could attribute that to luck, and that luck was not likely to last forever.
If we reconfigure the standings in the National League East based on the pythagorean theorem (with a tweaking suggested by Baseball-Reference.com), the standings look like this (with the winning percentages predicted by the pythagorean theorem):
Atlanta Braves .546
Florida Marlins .516
New York Mets .505
Washington Nationals .500
Philadelphia Phillies .488
This analysis suggests that the Mets' winning percentage is worse than the team's on-field performance would suggest, and the Nats' winning percentage is better than the team's on-field performance would suggest. This appears to be confirmed by Jon Weisman's analysis at http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/. Jon points out that the Nats' winning percentage in non-one-run games is only .538. That's good, but not nearly as good as the Nats' winning percentage so far this season.
Of course, none of this matters if the Nats continue to win as they have so far this season. One-run games count as much as any other game. Yes, the Nats are probably playing over their heads, but some teams have done that for a lot longer than half a season, so there's no reason to assume the Nats will end up at .500. And with the trading deadine coming, the Nats are in a unique position to improve themselves dramatically.
We'll leave that thought for a later posting.
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3 comments:
This is the best website
They are also in the unique position where, while currently in first place, they better improve themselves dramatically if they want to make the playoffs. I see an unprecendented nose dive to the cellar of the East.
I had the same love for the New York Yankees, growing up in the Bronx. Actually, I have started to check out how the Nationals are doing, and rooting for them.
You two couldn't be spending your time in a better way. But, reality will set in, and the Yankees will win the World Series, and the Nationals, will be like the old Washington Senators. I hope I am wrong. But, I am not wrong about what you guys are doing!!!!!
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