Jim Bowden: Man in Denial

Jim Bowden makes the following statement in today's New York Times:

"The team has to step up and show Atlanta and show the league the first half wasn't a fluke."

"We have basically collapsed since the All-Star break, and it's the first time I've seen a team collapse when it's had great pitching. This team needs a wake-up call, and going into Atlanta right now, this is a very important series for this team."

"If the season ended right now, we would be in the postseason, but we're not playing well and we haven't played well since the All-Star break. We've got to turn it around, and I can't think of a better time to turn it around then these games against Atlanta and Florida."

The Nationals' problem has been hitting, and Bowden pretty clearly is blaming the team's recent problems on its position players who have been unable to generate much offense. But Bowden seems to think that these hitters can, beginning today in Atlanta, turn it around and start hitting much better. In other words, Bowden doesn't seem to think the Nationals need additional offense; the problem is that the team's current offense isn't playing up to its potential.

That is just plain wrong. The first half was a fluke: the team's expected record based on its runs scored and runs allowed is only 47-52. The Nationals have played above their heads, and their first half record is unsustainable. The challenge now is to lock in the first half gains by trading for players who can materially improve the team and keep it in the pennant race.

As for the team's needs, here is a comparison of this year's and last year's OPS for the Nationals' starting position players. For Preston Wilson and Vinny Castilla we've limited their 2004 stats to their performance outside Colorado to diminish the distorting effect of Coors Field.

Pos -- Player ----- 2005 -- 2004
C ---- Schneider -- .747 -- .724
1B --- Johnson ---- .952 -- .757
2B --- Vidro ------ .769 -- .821
SS --- Guzman ----- .501 -- .693
3B --- Castilla --- .721 -- .774
LF --- Church ----- .904 -- .495
LF --- Byrd ------- .603 -- .608
CF --- Wilkerson -- .779 -- .872
CF --- Wilson ----- .857 -- .689
RF --- Guillen ---- .872 -- .849

Vidro, Castilla, and Wilkerson are underperforming their stats last year, but as we've shown in our analysis of the effect of RFK on Wilkerson's stats, all three are performing about what we would expect given that they play half of their games in an extreme pitcher's park. Guzman is clearly underperforming last year's stats.

But Schneider, Johnson, Church, Wilson, and Guillen are outperforming their stats last year. Thus, other than Guzman, we think these year on year stats are basically a watch. In other words, the problem isn't that the Nationals' players aren't playing to their potential, the problem is that the Nationals don't have enough quality hitters.

So, rather than blame the team's woes on its hitters, Bowden should be spending his time trading for the hitters the team needs to continue its winning ways.