We never thought we would say this, but Deivi Cruz is a big upgrade for us. His stats aren't good (.301 OBP, .397 SLG, .698 OPS), but they're much better than Cristian Guzman's stats (.235 OBP, .273 SLG, .508 OPS), which are impossibly bad. Cruz's VORP is only 3.8, but that compares very favorably with Guzman's -19.3.
An increase of almost 200 points in OPS is a serious upgrade, and given that the Nationals aren't giving up much, if anything, to get Cruz and given that Cruz is a free agent after this season, this is a good transaction for Jim Bowden. (Yes, we'll compliment Bowden when a compliment is due.)
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4 comments:
The only bad news is that Deivi has Cristian Guzman number in him. Look at June and July, that's about a 2 month stretch where he had .235 .250/ .300 stats. If he follows the trend other players set when they get to DC, he'll have a game winning HR tonight and a week from now proceed to bat .190 for the rest of the year.
This is a good point. Cruz's stats will take a dip in RFK, so we should temper our expectations. On the other hand, Guzman is so terrible that even Cruz in RFK is an upgrade.
"If he follows the trend other players set when they get to DC, he'll have a game winning HR tonight and a week from now proceed to bat .190 for the rest of the year."
That's ok. We'll use that HR, then proceed to use him as a pinch hitter and have Zimmerman play SS. If he then hits a home-run and starts hitting .190, we'll move to the next hitter . . .
Cruz - upgrade over Guzman -
yes, but in the end the comparison might be Cruz with Vidro, Zimmerman with Guzman if Vidro's legs collapse from under him, or Zimmerman - Castilla, Cruz - Guzman if Vidro starts hitting, and Castilla's various injuries knock him out of the running.
Interesting point. If the comparison is Cruz and Zimmerman with Vidro and Guzman, there may not be much of an upgrade. We hope that Zimmerman will hit well, but we're skeptical, and although Vidro hasn't been all we wanted, he's more than Cruz.
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