I rattled off a few names, but the conversation got me to thinking more particularly about the subject. Set forth below are the names of the National League hitters that we believe, were they available, the Nationals should pursue in free agency, even if that means paying top money. This is not a list of players who will be available, but a list of players who we would pursue if they were available. All of these players are relatively young because we're assuming that the Nationals wouldn't give a long term contract to an aging player. The list therefore doesn't include Barry Bonds, Bobby Abreu, etc. We're not saying that the Nationals should go after players like that, but we are saying that a long-term contract for them at the highest price probably doesn't make sense. (We'll post a list of American League hitters later.)
| Player | Pos | OPB | SLG | OPS | VORP |
| Derrek Lee | 1B | .426 | .671 | 1.097 | 83.9 |
| Albert Pujols | 1B | .430 | .622 | 1.052 | 79.7 |
| Miguel Cabrera | LF | .397 | .591 | .988 | 66.7 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 3B | .390 | .587 | .977 | 56.3 |
| Adam Dunn | LF | .396 | .577 | .973 | 53 |
| Andruw Jones | CF | .362 | .593 | .955 | 52.3 |
There are a couple of interesting things about this list. First, it's short--there are only six players on it--which makes sense because there shouldn't be a lot of hitters on which you'd spend top money. Second, it does not include Jason Bay. Before you spit out your Diet Coke at even the mention of Jason Bay in the same breath as Albert Pujols, let us show you his stats:
| Player | Pos | OPB | SLG | OPS | VORP |
| Jason Bay | LF | .400 | .572 | .972 | 66.3 |
That's pretty impressive production, but we have some doubt about whether Bay will be able to keep it up, at least at this level.
We find this list to be sobering, because it shows how limited are the opportunities to buy top and predictable production from young players. The list makes clear that if the Nationals are to improve their offense for the long term, they're going to have to do it by focusing their free agent dollars on the best players and by developing young talent.
3 comments:
Do you see any of these players not spending the majority of their good years with their present teams? The cheap Reds are always a threat to cut Adam Dunn free, but I'm thinking Andruw might come free at the end of this contract. he'd be 31 that year. Francoeur can play center, Marte might need to be moved to the OF, and Andruw seems like the type of guy who would ask for the world. The offering up that type of contract for an aging non-pitcher.
Two possibilities are Adam Dunn and Miguel Cabrera. It's possible that the Reds and Marlins may be so cash-strapped that they look to move or let go of them. We suspect that Lee, Pujols, Ensberg, and Jones will be with their teams for a long time to come.
It will be interesting to see what the Braves do with Jones at the end of his contract. As usual, the Braves are stocked with young talent and they may not be willing to pay a max-type contract to Jones at that point.
Although an unabashed Cardinals fans, I am trying to maintain my objectivity here. I agree that the 6 players you have identified are within range of each other in terms of performance this year, although Pujols and Lee are having superior years to the others, great as the others are. What separates Pujols from everyone else is his impeccable track record. He is basically putting up the same numbers this year as he has in his prior 4 years (except his BBs/Ks ratio has improved). That not only separates him from Lee and Ensberg and Dunn and Jones (Cabrera is tough to compare because he has no track record), it also separates him from all other players in major league history, save perhaps DiMaggio, Foxx, Williams and Musial. What I find interesting is that Pujols has not markedly improved from Year 1 to Year 5, like you tend to see in most great players. Then again, it's hard to improve when you start with the bar so very high.
Hi Erik!
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