The Nationals have 45 games left, 25 of which are at home. If the Nationals win those games at the same rate they've won their home and away games to date, they would win 15 of their home games and 9 of their road games and would end up with a record of 86-76. Of the Nationals' remaining games, 13 are against teams who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today and 36 are against teams who currently have a record better than .500.
The Astros have 45 games left, 24 of which are at home. If they win at the same rate they've won their home and away games to date, they would win 16 of their home games and 8 of their road games and would end up with a record of 87-75. Of the Astros' remaining games, 8 are against teams who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today and 12 are against teams who currently have a record better than .500. The Astros have an easier schedule from here because most of their remaining games are against teams in the Central Division, which is much weaker than the East.
The Phillies have 44 games left, 20 of which are at home. If the Phillies win those games at the same rate they've won their home and away games to date, they would win 12 of their home games and 11 of their road games and would end up with a record of 86-76. Of the Phillies' remaining games, 10 are against teams who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today and 32 are against teams who currently have a record better than .500.
So, if the remainder of the season goes like this, the final wild card standings would be:
| Team | Record | Pct. | GB |
| Astros | 87-75 | .537 | -- |
| Nationals | 86-76 | .531 | 1 |
| Phillies | 86-76 | .531 | 1 |
Now, that's a close race! That means that almost anything is possible from here. Yes, the Astros have the easier record, but the Nationals are definitely in this thing. To use the words of one of our loyal readers, this series against the Phillies is HUGE!
UPDATE: Mr. Collins points out that we forgot about San Diego in calculating the number of remaining games against playoff teams. We've corrected the numbers for the Nationals and Astros accordingly. Thanks for the good catch!
4 comments:
Technically, we have 13 games against opponents who would be in the postseason if the season ended today - with 7 games against Atlanta, 3 against St. Louis, and 3 against San Diego.
Great breakdown though!!!
I was going to ask about the Marlins but then I looked at their schedule and forget it.
I want to see where Philly and the Mets are on Sept 1. They both play 3 "patsies" in Pittsburgh, Arizona, and San Fran that they could take 7 or 8 games from before then. If the Mets can make up ground they get to end the season with Colorado.
We agree that the Mets are still in it, which is sort of amazin' given the challenges they've had to date. This race is VERY fluid, and the expected outcomes will change almost daily. In other words, the race has the potential to be GREAT!
No gaurantee the Phils will win at the same rate as they have been. Two of their pitchers have played out of their minds in the last month. Also, they cruble when things get hot and heavy, so expect them to finish at least 3 games back, probably after they lose 3 in row to the Nats to close out the season.
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