Runs Scored-Runs Allowed

Although it's frequently maligned, one of the best indicators of a team's success is the runs scored-runs allowed differential. That is, a team that allows as many runs as it scores is going to be a .500 team. Only teams that score substantially more runs than they allow will be successful in the long term.

It's possible to beat the house for a time--as the Nationals did in the first half--but eventually the house will win. And, in fact, the Nationals were headed very quickly to .500 status after they were swept by San Diego over a week ago. After a phenomenal first half, they were then 58-53, only five games above .500.

Since then, the Nationals have rebounded. Why? As we said, the Nationals had no hope of improving by reducing their runs scored. Rather, the only path upward was to score more runs, and that's exactly what the Nats have done. Since being swept by San Diego, the Nationals have a runs scored-runs allowed differential of +17, and their differential translates to a 162 game record of 120-42. That compares quite nicely with the Nationals expected record, which is based on the runs scored-runs allowed differential for the entire season to date, of 58-60. In other words, the Nationals have improved their differential substantially during this recent win streak.

Can the Nationals keep it up? They would have been in a much better position had they traded for more offense, but, although there is a chance they'll pick up a productive player via waivers, we have to assume that this is the team they'll have during the stretch drive. The Nationals are going to need a lot of their players to get or stay hot from here, including some players, like Brad Wilkerson, Preston Wilson, Jose Vidro, and Vinny Castilla, who haven't been lighting the world on fire. In other words, the odds are probably against them, but it's possible.