The Wild Card Race--the Marlins

Today and Monday we'll compare the Nationals and Marlins for the purpose of determining who has the upper hand in the race as we head down the stretch.

WASHINGTON

POS	Player	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP
C	Schneider	.347	.433	.780	21.2
1B	Johnson	.432	.497	.929	34.3
2B	Vidro	.331	.452	.783	12.9
SS	Carroll	.300	.261	.561	-7.6
3B	Castilla	.318	.388	.706	7.2
LF	Wilson	.350	.429	.779	3.9
CF	Wilkerson	.354	.418	.772	16.2
RF	Guillen	.344	.505	.849	28
RF	Church	.355	.486	.841	16.8

FLORIDA

POS	Player	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP
C	LoDuca	.360	.407	.767	26.4
1B	Delgado	.392	.553	.945	42.2
2B	Castillo	.375	.373	.748	19.9
SS	Gonzalez	.329	.381	.710	16.9
3B	Lowell	.288	.363	.651	-0.8
LF	Cabrera	.408	.609	1.017	68.2
CF	Pierre	.311	.331	.642	6.8
RF	Encarnacion	.360	.407	.767	26.4
RF	Harris	.382	.400	.782	3.1

This is a pretty distressing list for Nationals fans. The Marlins are better at nearly every position, with third base and fourth outfielder being the only positions at which the Nationals have better production. Unfortunately, Vinny Castilla and Ryan Church aren't lighting the league on fire. The Nationals have only one hitter with a VORP higher than 30; the Marlins have three.

Take a look at Miguel Cabrera's stats. He is one of the most talented young players to come along in a very long time. He's the third best hitter in all of baseball this year and the best hitting left fielder by a wide margin. Here's a really depressing fact: Carbrera's VORP is almost twice the Nationals' best hitter--Nick Johnson.

Don't get us wrong, the Marlins have some problems--they don't get much offense out of their players at second, short, third, and center, but neither do the Nationals. The bottom line is that there is no way to look at this list and conclude that the Nationals will beat the Marlins with better offense. Like their battle with the Astros, the Nationals will have to do it with pitching. The Astros have a better staff than the Nationals; on Monday, we'll see whether the same is true of the Marlins.