The Wild Card Race--the Astros

Let's assume for the moment that the Nationals don't catch the Braves in the National League East, which increasingly looks like a pretty safe assumption. That means that the only way into the playoffs for the Nationals is via the wild card. Can they win the wild card? Yes. The Nationals are only one game back of the Astros, and they're 1.5 games ahead of Florida, 2 games ahead of Philadelphia, and 3 games ahead of the Mets. Will they? Well, we're not sure. As you'll see, they are definitely not the strongest team in the race.

Over the next week, we'll be comparing the Nationals to these other teams. Let's first focus on the Astros.

Here is a comparison of the teams' starting position players. We've given the Nationals the benefit of the doubt by assuming that the outfield includes Jose Guillen on a consistent starter; in other words, we're not factoring Brandon Watson into this analysis. We think that Watson isn't likely to play at a high level this year, but we'll revisit this analysis if he proves otherwise.

Anyway, back to the stats. The last column is "VORP"--Value Over Replacement Player--which is Baseball Prospectus' measure of the "number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances." VORP is a measure offense; it does not reflect a player's defensive skills. These stats don't include last night's game.

WASHINGTON

POS	Player	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP
C	Schneider	.345	.418	.760	18.3
1B	Johnson	.437	.514	.950	35.8
2B	Vidro	.333	.441	.775	10.9
SS	Guzman	.238	.273	.511	-17.1
3B	Castilla	.318	.373	.691	6.1
LF	Wilson	.381	.457	.838	4.8
CF	Wilkerson	.357	.416	.774	15.7
RF	Guillen	.346	.501	.847	28.3

HOUSTON

POS	Player	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP
C	Ausmus	.327	.293	.621	0.4
1B	Berkman	.403	.502	.905	30.2
2B	Biggio	.339	.482	.822	30.6
SS	Everett	.297	.383	.680	11.2
3B	Ensberg	.384	.580	.964	48.8
LF	Palmeiro	.382	.507	.889	15.6
CF	Taveras	.326	.354	.680	10
RF	Lane	.301	.482	.783	11.5

Two players stand out: Cristian Guzman and Morgan Ensberg. We, and everyone else, have said that Guzman is simply awful, and his OPS and VORP confirm this. His OPS is 110 points lower than anyone else's on this list, and he is the only player with a negative VORP, which means that the Nationals would be better off eating Guzman's $4.2 million salary and replacing him with a journeyman shortstop. Where could we find someone like that? How about on the Nats' bench; Jamey Carroll isn't good, but putting his OPS of .563 and VORP of -7.5 into the lineup would be a significant upgrade over Guzman.

Ensberg stands out because he's great and clearly better than anyone else on this list. He is the second best third baseman in baseball, behind only Alex Rodriguez.

These stats make clear that Houston's offense is significantly better than is Washington's. The Nats have better production at catcher, first base, center field, and right field. The Astros are better at second base, shortstop, third base, and left field, and they are better by wide margins at those positions. The Nationals' average VORP among these players is 12.9; the Astros is 19.8.

If the Nationals are to prevail over the Astros in the wild card race, it won't be because they have a superior offense. The Nationals will need timely hitting and great pitching to win. We'll compare the teams' pitching staffs tomorrow.