The Wild Card Race--the Astros, cont'd

Yesterday we compared the starting lineups of the Nationals and Astros. Today we'll compare their pitching staffs.

WASHINGTON

Pitcher	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	VORP
Patterson	7.14	2.92	8.71	0.61	46.10
Hernandez	9.86	3.15	5.39	0.61	37.50
Loaiza	9.23	2.21	6.83	0.86	32.00
Armas	7.70	4.32	4.85	1.37	10.20
Drese	9.30	3.22	3.93	0.36	4.00
Ayala	10.13	1.61	4.84	0.73	16.50
Majewski	8.83	4.08	4.58	0.17	13.20
Carrasco	6.85	3.63	5.44	1.01	14.00
Eischen	10.31	3.93	7.85	0.00	2.50
Stanton	8.53	1.42	2.84	0.00	3.00
Cordero	6.79	1.92	7.38	0.59	24.30

HOUSTON

Pitcher	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	VORP
Clemens	6.12	2.54	8.02	0.35	70.10
Oswalt	8.28	1.68	6.34	0.58	57.10
Pettitte	8.28	1.78	6.81	0.61	43.20
Astacio	11.57	3.28	7.33	3.09	-10.40
Rodriguez	10.07	3.89	6.52	1.60	-7.00
Wheeler	5.82	2.29	9.35	0.53	23.0
Qualls	9.11	2.65	7.12	0.83	10.10
Backe	9.27	4.34	5.81	1.03	8.70
Burns	8.55	1.80	4.95	1.35	4.50
Gallo	7.45	1.86	5.59	0.00	4.10
Lidge	7.61	2.85	13.50	0.76	14.70

And we thought the Nationals had a good pitching staff. The Astros start two of the three best pitchers in baseball--Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt--and have a third--Andy Pettitte--who is nearly as good as the Nationals #1 starter--John Patterson. There aren't enough superlatives to throw Clemens' way. He is simply one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in his 21st season, and is likely the most dominant 43 year old pitcher ever to play the game. If he continues to play past this season--and there is no physical reason why he shouldn't--he soon will end the debate of who is baseball's best all-time pitcher.

The Astros #4 and #5 starters are pretty bad, but Ezequiel Astacio is not likely to be in the starting rotation for the rest of the season. Brandon Backe will return from injury soon and take over that spot. For that reason, the Astros' starting rotation is clearly better than the Nationals'.

(Let us digress for a moment. The awesome combination of Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettitte would make the Astros a dangerous entrant in the playoffs, if they are the wild card team. In a short series those three pitchers would be better than any other starting rotation in the National League playoffs.)

The Nationals' bullpen is better, with Ayala, Carrasco, and Majewski outclassing anyone in the Astros' relief core. Cordero has been a better closer than Brad Lidge this year, but it will be interesting to see whether Cordero can keep it up. We suspect that Cordero will continue to be effective, but that the gap between the closers will narrow somewhat.

The Nationals have a very good pitching staff and one that is comparable to the Astros', but the Astros have the better staff. And given the Astros' more potent lineup, the Astros have the better team. That doesn't bode well for the stretch drive to the playoffs.