The Nationals are 56-50, 5.5 games out of first place in the National League East, two games out of the wild card, and only one game ahead of the Florida Marlins. Jim Bowden and Frank Robinson have grown fond of saying that this is just a slump and as soon as the players turn it around the Nationals will get back to their winning ways. That may happen, but we're here to say that things may not turn out so well.
The Nationals have a lot farther to fall. At 56-50, they still have a record that is much better than their performance on the field would suggest. With 434 runs allowed, but only 408 runs scored, the Nationals have an expected record of 50-56. That means that the Nationals could play at least 6 games below .500 and still not be considered underperformers, at least when compared with their runs scored/runs allowed differential. Of course, with their recent play the Nationals could descend to that level pretty quickly.
The point of all of this is that the Nationals must either play over their heads or start scoring a lot more runs to secure a playoff spot. They played over their heads for the first half of the season, and we seriously doubt that they can duplicate that feat in the second half. We'd be interested in hearing of teams that have done that for a full season; we don't know of one.
Can the Nationals suddenly increase their runs scored? No. Well, let us be a bit less categorical: it's doubtful. As we've said repeatedly, the Nats just don't have the hitters to score a lot more runs, at least on a consistent basis.
Can the Nationals suddenly decrease their runs allowed? No, but we'll leave that to a later post.
We know that this is a bleak post, but having chosen to not improve their team through trades, this is where the Nationals are. Let's hope for a miracle second half!
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