Can the Nats really reduce their runs allowed?

We said in a previous post that we can't expect the Nationals to allow fewer runs that they have allowed to date on a per game basis, meaning that if there is substantial improvement in the team's fortunes it must come from an increase in runs scored.

To try to prove this point to you, let's compare the pitching staffs of the Nationals and the Braves. We think we've got the players right, but if you disagree, let us know. We've included 11 pitchers, dropping one from each staff. We've assumed that a couple of the Braves' injured pitchers come back in the near future, as has been advertised. In addition, we've used the numbers of a pitcher with his current team, unless, as is the case with Mike Stanton, there aren't any meaningful stats with his current team.

WASHINGTON

Pitcher	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Patterson	3.23	8.95	2.77	0.50
Hernandez	1.79	5.44	3.05	0.60
Loaiza	3.06	6.91	2.26	0.78
Armas	1.10	4.97	4.54	1.40
Drese	1.06	3.65	3.45	0.41
Majewski	1.18	4.44	3.76	0.17
Ayala	3.20	4.72	1.48	0.74
Carrasco	1.69	5.83	3.46	1.08
Stanton	2.00	7.00	3.50	0.50
Eischen	2.17	6.88	3.18	0.00
Cordero	3.92	7.46	1.91	0.64
Totals	2.12	6.21	2.93	0.73

ATLANTA

Pitcher	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Smoltz	2.88	6.54	2.27	0.55
Hudson	1.47	5.35	3.65	0.81
Hampton	1.50	3.54	2.36	0.74
Thomson	2.29	5.76	2.52	0.36
Sosa	1.30	6.55	5.03	0.82
Farnsworth	2.80	11.54	4.12	0.21
Davies	1.31	6.44	4.90	0.70
Kolb	1.13	5.79	5.14	0.64
Colon	2.14	6.09	2.84	2.03
Bernero	3.08	7.09	2.30	0.96
Reitsma	3.56	5.61	1.58	0.18
Totals	1.92	6.25	3.26	0.70

Not surprisingly, John Patterson is the best pitcher so far on either staff. Where the Nationals suffer is in the back of their rotation; Armas and Drese are substantially underforming the rest of the starting staff.

As you can see from the totals, these staffs are evenly matched, although the Nationals have a slight edge. It therefore is not surprising that the teams give up about the same number of runs per game. Atlanta gives up 3.84 runs per game, while Washington gives up 4.03 runs per game. Only one team in all of baseball--the Houston Astros--has allowed fewer runs than the Braves, and the Astros have allowed only five fewer runs. Only seven teams give up fewer runs than the Nationals, and three of those teams have given up only four or five fewer runs than have the Nationals. In other words, the Nationals are among the best teams in baseball in runs allowed.

So, do you really think that the Nationals are suddenly going to substantially outperform the best team in runs allowed for the rest of the season? As we said yesterday, not bloody likely! Who among these pitchers is going to pitch materially better than they have this season? Armas and Drese are candidates, but it's not like they have a statistical history that justifies that conclusion. To the contrary, we have every expectation that Armas and Drese will pitch this way for the rest of the season. If not them, then who? There just isn't the basis to conclude that any of the Nationals' pitchers will suddenly improve, and improve dramatically.

And even if the Nationals gave up the same number of runs as the Braves, they would still score about the same number of runs as they allow, meaning that we would expect them to be a .500 team. It's only if the Nationals score a lot more runs than they allow that we can expect them to play substantially better than they have been playing. Which brings us to runs scored...